Nylander’s new contract will be toasted – and roasted

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Lack of salary cap space and lack of Stanley Cups are inexorably linked in Leafs Nation debate.

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And expect the fret level to rise when William Nylander’s new contract is registered with the National Hockey League. The signature won’t be dry on a reported eight-year deal in the $11.5 million US range before Brad Treliving is either celebrated for maintaining Core Four fluidity or slammed for upsetting the pay scale and further setting back a 57-year Cup drought.

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Nylander is viewed suspiciously by some as a one-year wonder who timed his career year meticulously.

Yet optics meant the general manager had to move on Nylander now, after a months-long slow dance in contract talks, during which Willy took the team scoring lead and improved his 200-foot game.

Of course, his price went up and as the lowest paid among Auston Matthews, John Tavares and Mitch Marner, he took the puck and skated end-to-end for big bucks.

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If the pact is to be announced in the next few days, perhaps with some clever structuring to ease cap pain, Nylander certainly put a bow on it with a three-point game Saturday in San Jose.

The problem is three other stars have AAVs between $10.9 million and $13.25 million, at least until the summer of 2025, tying up close to $47 million in the four deals – even with the cap due to rise next season.

To be determined is when to launch a new contract convo with Marner, who’ll be going into his last year next season, and how much the club is already figured to save when John Tavares cashes the last of his $11 million cheques in the summer of ‘25, assuming he finishes his career here.

All this chatter conveniently overlooks there are three months to go until this year’s playoffs, indeed the halfway point of the schedule is still a week away. Unlike the past two 50-win campaigns there won’t be an easy path this time. Under Nylander’s present AAV, $6.962 million and the current cap, it’s already a challenge to add a veteran defenceman at the trade deadline, the position the Leafs seem perennially needing to upgrade.

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Once April arrives, this aforementioned quartet not only must lead the qualifying charge, but overcome their own history and collectively seize the moment. Meaning gets beyond winning one series since they coalesced with Nylander as the first of the first-rounders in 2014. That’s why there’s lamentations another big-ticket deal getting awarded so soon.

Nylander has to keep his much-touted hundred-point pace and start the first round the way he finished the last against Florida, bringing Scotiabank Arena to its feet.

Matthews must stay at or near the league’s goal lead. After he took some flak for producing just eight in an early autumn 18-game span, he’s back on pace to pot 50 to 60, leaving Marner under the most scrutiny. The all-star right winger, who just missed 100 points last year, has lagged at times and coach Sheldon Keefe has felt the need to change lines to spark him.

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Tavares, meanwhile, defies age as the centre for Nylander or anyone else, third in league faceoff winning percentage, always a threat down low and on track for 70 to 80 points again.

What can’t be avoided is the ill wind of injuries and ever-changing public opinion, which have never been more unpredictable on Bay St.

After newcomers John Klingberg, Max Domi, Tyler Bertuzzi and Ryan Reaves got the royal welcome as movers and shakers, it took much longer for them to settle in and fans to embrace them. Klingberg struggled, got hurt and dropped out of sight, Reaves is still in limbo.

The planned Ilya Samsonov – Joseph Woll goal tandem currently consists of Martin Jones and Dennis Hildeby, while the autumn outcry of losing defenceman Luke Schenn and forwards Ryan O’Reilly and Sam Lafferty has been lessened in part by Simon Benoit, Domi and Noah Gregor, respectively. Benoit kept his job after filling in for the sidelined Mark Giordano and Timothy Liljegren.

Trying to stay focused above the fracas is Keefe, who once again heard media rumours of his imminent demise, usually after a night his team took bottom feeder foes too lightly. But after one fed up fan threw their sweater on the ice a week ago after a home loss to Carolina, the Leafs, went on the road and won three, allowing one even strength goal in the past four.

As with Nylander’s contract, when one Leaf drama ends, another is sure to begin.

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X: @sunhornby

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