Why election polls were wrong in 2016 and 2020 — and what’s changing

2014 was the first year Lonna Atkeson remembers receiving hate mail.

Atkeson, a political scientist who researches election surveys and public opinion, has been conducting voter polls since 2004. She is currently a professor at Florida State University and has authored several books.

But a decade into her polling work, she said, the angry messages began rolling in.

“I started getting letters from people saying, ‘You’re part of the problem. You’re not part of the solution. I’m not going to answer your surveys anymore. You’re an evil academic trying to brainwash our children,'” Atkeson recalled in an interview with CNBC.

For Atkeson, those notes marked a shift: a more polarized electorate had begun to lose faith in institutions like polling and voters might no longer be as willing to talk to her.

At the same time, technology was advancing and landlines or mail were no longer foolproof ways to get in touch with survey respondents.

“People were not answering their phones,” Rachael Cobb, a political science professor at Suffolk University, told CNBC. “Even in the last 10 years, you might try 20 callers to get the one that you need. Now, it’s double: 40 callers to get what you need. So every poll takes longer and it’s more expensive.”

Polarization and technology are among the obstacles that pollsters cite as complicating the task of taking accurate voter surveys.

As a result, over the past several election cycles, polling organizations have made some major mistakes.

“If you look at some of the big misses, I mean, they’re pretty big,” Atkeson said.

Among the big misses that have scarred the polling industry is the 2016 presidential election when various headlines littered the news, claiming that Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning against Republican nominee Donald Trump were around 90%.

An industry-wide post-mortem identified several key causes of the 2016 polling flop.

Certain factors were out of pollsters’ control.

For instance, according to the American Association for Public Opinion Research, some voters did not decide whose name to write on their ballot until the last minute, making them difficult to account for.

And some voters were shy about their support for Trump due to his controversial rhetoric during the 2016 campaign. As a result, they did not always admit their voting intentions to pollsters.

But other factors were direct results of methodological oversight.

“People didn’t factor in educational representation,” said Matin Mirramezani, chief operating officer at Generation Lab, a polling organization that specifically targets young voters. “Education is a lesson learned from 2016.”

White, non-college-educated voters, who made up a large part of Trump’s base, went undercounted in 2016 polls, in part because people with higher education are “significantly more likely” to respond to surveys than those with less education, according to AAPOR.

Despite identifying these issues, when the 2020 election rolled around, polls yielded the highest error margins in 40 years, again underestimating Trump support, AAPOR found.

And during the 2022 midterm elections, the “red wave” of voters that the media was convinced would overwhelmingly propel Republicans back into congressional control never came. Democrats maintained their Senate majority and ceded the House by a slim margin.