NFL wild card weekend picks: Browns big in Texas, injuries sink Fish

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Ahead of our analysis and suggestions for the usually-thrilling Wild Card Weekend games, I want to congratulate my cohort, the esteemed and considerably more experienced Dan Bilicki, on a fine season of prognosticating.

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Dapper Dan had four more wins than losses, and to those who don’t fully realize it, when you’re making picks against the spread over a full season, such a performance deserves a round of applause.

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Clap, clap, clap, clap and clap.

I also want to modestly point out that I was 13-3 in Week 18, a rally that brought me to an even par 132-132-8 for the 2023 campaign.

To finish .500, I sailed along at a very smooth 71-47-4 after Week 10.

Yes indeed, somewhere up there, the late, great “cool as the other side of the pillow” Stuart Scott is saying about yours truly: “He must be butter, because he’s on a roll!”

CLEVELAND BROWNS (11-6) at HOUSTON TEXANS (10-7)

LINE: Cleveland by 2

CHEWABLE: The Browns have won four straight games against the Texans, including a 36-22 easy-like-milk-and-cookies victory last month in Houston. Things will be more difficult on the visitors this time, as for the Christmas Eve clash the Texans were minus three integral pieces — QB C.J. Stroud, DE Will Anderson and LB Blake Cashman — while LB Denzel Perryman and Maliek Collins played through injuries … Cleveland QB Joe Flacco threw for 368 yards and three TDs, but also had two tosses picked off by a Texans pass defence that ranks 23rd. In his three starts since, the soon-to-be 39-year-old has averaged 313 passing yards along with seven TD passes and five interceptions. Along with a few other starters, he was given a rest day for his team’s meaningless 31-14 loss to the Bengals last week … In eight games against the Texans over his career, Flacco is 6-2 with an average of 218.4 yards per game as well as 10 TD passes and three picks … Browns WR Amari Cooper had 11 catches for 265 yards and two touchdowns in Houston, and four catches for 109 yards and one TD in the game before it. A heel issue kept him out of Cleveland’s last three games, but he says he’ll be ready to go Saturday … In the first non-1 p.m. ET NFL start of his career, Stroud proved he’s ready for prime time and over the injury problems he’s been dealing with of late by completing 20 of 26 pass attempts for 264 yards and two scores in Houston’s win-or-go-home 23-19 victory in Indianapolis last Saturday night. If you didn’t see the game, trust me when I say he looked really good. But as a rookie, history will not be on Stroud’s side against the Browns. Teams led by quarterbacks making their first playoff start are 17-37 SU and 17-36-1 ATS. As home dogs, like the Texans will be, they are 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS … The Texans are 1-4 SU when Stroud is sacked four or more times. Led by Myles Garrett (who had 14 in 16 games) the Browns were sixth in sacks with 49, or 2.88 per game … Browns coach Kevin Stefanski is 1-8 ATS in the second of consecutive road games, but should the visit to Cincinnati last week even count? … The Browns were No. 1 in total defence as well as pass defence, and 11th against the run. As they will pay plenty of attention to WR Nico Collins — who had nine catches for 195 yards and a TD against the Colts — Houston will need a big effort from RB Devin Singletary, who cracked the 100-yard barrier just once in his last seven games and three times all season. Last week versus the Colts, the former Buffalo Bill averaged just 2.6 yards per carry on 24 attempts … The Texans D was sixth against the run and ranked No. 14 in total yards against … The Texans were a strong 6-3-0 as an underdog … I like the Browns defence and the pass rush they’ll throw at Stroud as well as the experience of Flacco, who was old enough for a driver’s license when Stroud was born. Houston’s time is coming, just not yet. 

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TAKING: CLEVELAND -2

SCORE (O/U 44.5): Browns 27, Texans 23

MIAMI DOLPHINS (11-6) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (11-6)

LINE: Kansas City by 4.5

CHEWABLE: Remember when the Chiefs were almost unbeatable at home? They lost as many games at (GEHA Field at) Arrowhead Stadium this season (5-4) as they did the previous two years combined when they were 18-4 including playoffs … As uncharacteristically average as the Chiefs were offensively — they ranked 15th in points scored per game — the Dolphins are missing their three best pass rushers among a total of five linebackers and at least one key member of the secondary, Xavien Howard. Against such a skeleton roster, Patrick Mahomes should be able to lead Kansas City to the end zone often enough, even with his receivers dropping their usual assortment of passes … Eli Apple played in Howard’s spot opposite Jalen Ramsey against the Bills on Sunday night. He was targeted 12 times and, although he did have an interception, he also allowed nine catches for 141 yards and a touchdown … The Chiefs went to Germany to defeat the Dolphins 21-14 in Week 9. They held former teammate Tyreek Hill to his season worst 7.75 yards per reception, even though he made eight grabs … Travis Kelce caught 13 passes for 88 yards in his last three games. Didn’t that used to be one typical afternoon for the Chiefs tight end? Whatever has quieted him, can his famous girlfriend get him to Shake It Off by Saturday? … Mahomes is 9-2 at home in the playoffs over his career … The Dolphins offence was first in total yards, first in passing yards, second in points and sixth in rushing yards, yet they were 1-5 SU against teams with a winning record … The Chiefs were second in both total yards allowed and points allowed. They were much better against the pass (fourth) than the run (18th). … Miami RB Raheem Mostert, who missed the last two games with ankle/knee injuries, is trending towards a return Saturday. Along with De’Von Achane, who had 24 carries for 163 yards in Mostert’s absence, they should be able to find some holes against the Chiefs … Miami WR Jaylen Waddle is also expected back after resting a tender ankle … Worth monitoring is the progress of Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco and WRs Kadarius Toney and Rashee Rice. All have been dealing with injuries and didn’t play in the team’s meaningless 13-12 Week 18 win over the Chargers …. The Chiefs missed starting LT Donovan Smith (neck) for the last five games of the season, and there’s no indication he’ll be making an appearance this week … The Chiefs have won the past four meetings by an average score of 29-17 … Since 2008, the Dolphins are 28-18 ATS when they’re a road ‘dog of fewer than five points … If the Fins can’t beat teams with winning records even when healthy, how can you expect them to knock off the defending champs, even if on offence the Chiefs aren’t who they used to be? But K.C. won’t run away from them, either.

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TAKING: MIAMI +4.5

SCORE (O/U 44): Chiefs 24, Dolphins 20

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (10-7) at BUFFALO BILLS (11-6) 

LINE: Buffalo by 10

CHEWABLE: Holy big spread, Batman! Riding a five-game winning streak, the Bills are the hottest team entering the playoffs. Only one of the victories was relatively comfortable — the 31-10 pounding of the Cowboys — while the other four were by one score or less, and they had their hands full with Easton Stick and the five-win Chargers (24-22), as well as Bailey Zappe and the four-win Patriots (27-21) … Josh Allen is 4-0 in home playoff games … The Steelers were 5-0 SU when an underdog of three points or more this season … How much with the Steelers miss T.J. Watt, who is out on a multi-week basis with a Grade 2 MCL strain? Last season, they were 8-2 and sixth against the pass when the league’s best edge rusher was in the lineup. Without him, they were 1-6 while ranking 30th against the pass … The Steelers were 28th in scoring with a 17.9 points per game average thanks to Mason Rudolph, who started their last three games and went 3-0 with an average offensive output of 27 points … Understandable if you’re still not sold on Rudolph. He led the Steelers to 34 points in a victory over the 28th-ranked Bengals pass defence and 30 points against the 21st-ranked Seahawks pass defence, but scored only 17 points against a sixth-ranked Ravens pass defence that was resting starters. The Bills pass defence is seventh … The Bills were 15th against the run and Pittsburgh’s Najee Harris is heating up. He has rushed for triple digits in his last two games and averaged 104 yards in his last three … Among the best pass receiving backs in the league is Pittsburgh’s Jaylen Warren, whose 5.5 targets was fifth most among all RBs … The Bills were seventh against the pass and ninth in total yards allowed … The Steelers defence ranked 21st overall, 19th against the run and 17th against the pass … The Bills’ aerial attack could be without a deep weapon in Gabe Davis, who is dealing with a PCL strain and hasn’t practiced as of Thursday morning … Steelers football is defence and pounding the rock? It hasn’t looked that way while they have lost their last three playoff games by an average score of 45-27. That said, there’s no way I’m laying double digits against Mike Tomlin, who is 58-33 ATS as an underdog. Especially when the weather forecast for Orchard Park is for snow, -5C and lake effect winds up to 47 km/h. Those conditions benefit the Steelers run game and limits what Allen can do with the passing attack.

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TAKING: PITTSBURGH +10

SCORE (O/U 35.5): Bills 27, Steelers 20

GREEN BAY PACKERS (9-8) at DALLAS COWBOYS (12-5)

LINE: Dallas by 7

CHEWABLE: At an average age of 25 years, 214 days, the Packers have the youngest team to enter the playoffs since the 1974 Buffalo Bills. After a 9-5 season, those Bills made an early exit, losing their only post-season game 32-14 to the Steelers … Jordan Love finished his first full season as the Packers starter, playing as well as any quarterback in the league and with the second-most TD passes (32) in the league. Over the last four games, he averaged 269 passing yards while throwing for nine scores against no interceptions. Now comes a mammoth challenge as he faces the Cowboys’ fifth-ranked pass defence while trying to give Dallas its first home loss of the season … In leading Dallas to an 8-0 mark at AT&T Stadium, Dak Prescott completed 73.26% of his passes for 2,470 yards (308.75 average), 22 TDs and just three picks … Prescott’s career numbers against the Packers: 1-3, 11 TD passes, seven picks … Packers DC Joe Barry knows the Cowboys have a very average running game and CeeDee Lamb is the weapon he has to contain … After battling injuries most of the season, Green Bay running back Aaron Jones rolls into the playoffs with three straight games of more than 100 rushing yards. What a huge difference-maker he is. Not only did the Packers win those three games to snap a two-game losing streak and get into the playoffs, but they are 5-0 while averaging 28.2 points per game this season when Jones has been 100 percent. The attention defences have to pay him allows the team’s young and talented receiving corps a little more room … One of those receivers, Christian Watson, has resumed practicing and could return from a hamstring injury that has kept him out for a month. Watson had four TDs in his last three games before going down … The three run defences Jones danced around at the end of the season were the Bears (ranked No. 1), Vikings (No. 8) and Panthers (No. 23). The Cowboys’ run defence is a middle-of-the-road 16th … The Packers have won nine of the last 10 meetings with the Cowboys, including the last four times they visited Dallas. As inconsistent as they have been, they’re playing their best football of the season and should give the Cowboys a scare. If they pull off the upset, don’t be surprised if Bill Belichick is introduced as the new Dallas coach by Monday.

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TAKING: GREEN BAY +7

SCORE (O/U 50.5): Cowboys 30, Packers 27

LOS ANGELES RAMS (10-7) at DETROIT LIONS (12-5)

LINE: Detroit by 3

CHEWABLE: If you can watch only one game this weekend, this should be it. The Lions have a very well-rounded offence, from their elite line to a superb 1-2 punch at running back to a group or receivers that totalled the second-most yardage in the league behind the Dolphins. Then there’s a QB matchup featuring two players who were swapped for each other, with Detroit’s Jared Goff looking for the Super Bowl ring Matthew Stafford won in his first year with the Rams … The Lions also have the No. 2-ranked run defence, which will make things challenging for Rams running back Kyren Williams, who was the NFL’s third-leading rusher despite missing five games … The weak link on the Lions’ chain is the pass defence, which ranks 27th and very well could get shredded by Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Demarcus Robinson … The Rams defence ranks 20th overall, 20th against the pass and 12th against the run. In other words, very ordinary … The Rams are 7-1 since their bye, with the only loss coming on a walkoff overtime punt return against the Ravens … The Lions went 4-3 to finish the regular season …. The Rams have won three of the last four meetings with Detroit … The Lions won their first division title since 1993 and are making their first post-season appearance since 2017. They have lost their last eight playoff games …  Everybody loves Dan Campbell, who surely wishes he would have rested tight end Sam LaPorta in the meaningless season finale. LaPorta is likely to miss the game with a knee injury he suffered in the 30-20 victory over the Vikings, and he likely would have had a big day against a Rams defence that struggles against tight ends. But Campbell is still relatively new to the job, he’ll be coaching in his first playoff game, and Sean McVay is a proven winner in the post-season. The Rams get the edge in the matchup of bench bosses and overall experience, while Stafford will want to leave Lions fans shaking their heads and muttering “we should have never let that guy go,” as they leave the stadium. Oh, and won’t it be more surprising if Aaron Donald doesn’t make a game-altering play than if he does?

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TAKING: L.A. RAMS +3

SCORE (O/U 51.5): Rams 31, Lions 30

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (11-6) at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (9-8)

LINE: Philadelphia by 3

CHEWABLE: As if they already weren’t a house on fire with five losses in their last six games, the Eagles watched top receiver A.J. Brown (knee) and QB Jalen Hurts (finger) get injured in a regular-season finale against the Giants that had little at stake for them as they knew they weren’t going to outrace the Cowboys to the division title when Dallas just needed to beat Washington. Brown still wasn’t practising as of Thursday so it’s unlikely he will play, and Hurts is going to be hampered by a dislocated digit, which suggests they’ll have to rely on the running game. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. The Bucs have the fifth-rated ground defence but Philadelphia’s D’Andre Swift trampled them with 16 carries for 130 yards (an 8.2 yards per carry average if you don’t have a calculator handy) as the Eagles beat the Bucs for the first time in five tries with a 25-11 victory in Tampa on Week 3 … The Eagles mostly kept a lid on Bucs QB Baker Mayfield, who completed 15 of 25 pass attempts for 146 yards a TD pass and an interception. Another anomaly, as Philadelphia’s pass defence is ranked 31st, ahead of only the Commanders … The Bucs finished the regular season winning five of their last six games. If Mayfield doesn’t team up with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to take advantage of the woeful Philly secondary this time, Rachaad White could sting the Eagles. The Tampa Bay RB has emerged as a double threat who finished the season seventh among yards from scrimmage leaders … The Bucs were a league second-best 11-6 ATS and also had a league-high 72.7 cover percentage as a dog. The Eagles failed to cover in their last six games … For the life of me, I have no idea why Philly is favoured.

TAKING: TAMPA BAY +3

SCORE (O/U 43.5): Bucs 24, Eagles 21

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