There’s no need to bury the lede here: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander versus Luka Doncic is an individual matchup that should dominate basketball headlines for years to come and Round 2 with big stakes couldn’t have come fast enough.
Yes, in case you missed it, Round 1 was when Team Canada squared off against Team Slovenia at the FIBA World Cup this past summer. Gilgeous-Alexander thoroughly outplayed Doncic, scoring 31 points on 8-of-12 shooting from the field and 14-of-16 at the line to go along with 10 rebounds, four assists, and two steals in a 100-89 victory. Doncic, meanwhile, finished with 21 points on 8-of-20 shooting, four rebounds, and five assists, as well as an ejection.
By becoming the youngest team in NBA history to win a playoff series — and doing so with a sweep no less — the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder showed they are a team that can be both extremely young and extremely good.
Dallas caught a break when Kawhi Leonard was ruled out for the Clippers, but that’s also pretty much the norm now when facing the other L.A. team and shouldn’t be held against them. The pairing of Doncic and Kyrie Irving showed exactly why they present a daunting task for any opponent, and that’s going to make everything happening on the perimeter in this series all the more fascinating.
(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (5) Dallas Mavericks
Season series: Thunder won 3-1
Dec. 2 OKC @ DAL: Thunder won 126-120
Feb. 10 OKC @ DAL: Mavericks won 146-111
Mar. 14 DAL @ OKC: Thunder won 126-119
Apr. 14 DAL @ OKC: Thunder won 135-86.
Betting line:
Mavericks +110 to win series
Thunder -130 to win series
Game 1: Mavericks +3.5/Thunder -3.5 O/U 218.5
All odds courtesy Bet365
Series schedule:
Game 1 @ OKC: Tuesday May 7 @ 9:30 p.m. ET
Game 2 @ OKC: Thursday May 9 @ 9:30 p.m
Game 3 @ DAL: Saturday May 11 @ 3:30 p.m.
Game 4 @ DAL: Monday May 13 @ 9:30 p.m. ET
Game 5 (if necessary) @ OKC: Wednesday May 15 @ TBD
Game 6 (if necessary) @ DAL: Saturday, May 18 @ TBD
Game 7 (if necessary) @ OKC: Monday, May 20 @ TBD
Pulse on Thunder
While Orlando and Minnesota received deserved plaudits for their respective defensive efforts in the first round, the Thunder quietly posted the best defensive rating of any team. Yes, the New Orleans Pelicans certainly missed Zion Williamson, but Oklahoma City’s defence allowing just 95.1 points per-100 possessions to a team that has had plenty of experience playing without Williamson is still an impressive feat.
The Thunder finished with the fourth-best defensive rating in the regular season, forcing turnovers at a league-best rate. Gilgeous-Alexander was among the league-leaders in steals during the regular season while the perimeter defence of Luguentz Dort and Jalen Williams was absolutely stifling. That, combined with Chet Holmgren’s ability to both defend in space and protect the rim, make Oklahoma City the type of matchup Dallas doesn’t want to see.
Then there’s the offence. Led by the uber-efficient Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder finished with the third-best offensive rating at 120 points per-100 possessions. The Hamilton, Ont., native can break down any defender and either gets all the way to the basket or makes the right pass time and time again when opponents are forced to send help. Oklahoma City ranked third in the regular season in three-point shooting percentage.
Holmgren complicates matters even further for opponents, his three-point shooting forcing opposing bigs to stretch out to the perimeter and opening up a bevy of driving lanes and making life that much easier for his teammates to finish around the basket. This is one specific area that Oklahoma City will look to batter Dallas with, as the injury to Maxi Kleber leaves the team with two non-spacing bigs in Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II.
Then there’s Jalen Williams, who has had a breakout campaign averaging 19.1 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 4.5 assists, and his excellent two-way play could prove a decisive factor in this series. When Gilgeous-Alexander was out of the lineup in the regular season, Coach of the Year Mark Daigneault was more than happy to put the ball in the hands of Williams and let him go to work.
Pulse on Mavs
Dallas may just not be able to put its best foot forward in this series due to injury. Kleber’s dislocated shoulder takes away a key reserve who would have been all the more important in a matchup against Holmgren, Tim Hardaway Jr. was absent for the final four games of the Clippers series and, most importantly, Doncic said on the record after Game 4 of the first round that his knee is “not good.”
Being the MVP candidate he is, Doncic still averaged 29.8 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 9.5 assists, but shot just 23.9 per cent from the three-point line on 11.2 attempts from deep. Doncic did also say he was sick for about a week and Mavs fans will be hoping at least that is in the rearview mirror now.
Kyrie Irving has been great so far, averaging 26.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.7 assists while shooting 51.4 per cent from the field overall and 44.9 per cent from deep.
In the absence of Kleber, it’s pivotal that Gafford and Lively II find ways to be net-positives on the court and that will start with their rebounding. They can be monsters on the glass and that is the one area in which the Thunder can be exposed. Oklahoma City finished the regular season as the second-worst defensive rebounding team and fourth-worst offensive rebounding team because of the skill-ball lineups they employ.
X-Factors
Luguentz Dort (Thunder): He has the nickname Dorture Chamber for a reason. The guard matchups for Dort in this series are as tough as it gets in this league and while there’s no stopping Doncic and Irving, the Montreal native will be on a mission to make life as difficult as possible for the two of them.
P.J. Washington (Mavs): Washington finished the first round averaging 10.8 points per game and that was good enough to be the team’s third-leading scorer. Against an excellent defence, Washington’s scoring will be crucial. He’s a very good defender himself, and that two-way ability is going to be much needed in alleviating even the slightest load off Doncic and Irving.
Key to Victory
Three-point line: No team attempted more threes than the Mavs in the regular season. The Thunder don’t take a lot of threes but make them at a high clip. When the three-point math plays in Dallas’s favour, they don’t often lose. How much they need to win that math by is going to be the interesting thing to monitor here.
Iso-ball: In the regular season, only the Clippers played more iso-ball than the Mavs. How Doncic and Irving fare against the likes of Dort, Williams and Cason Wallace is going to make not only for must-see TV but a key storyline in this series.
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