India’s FY24 fiscal gap may be slightly better than revised estimates: Official

In the interim Budget in February, the government pegged its FY24 fiscal deficit at ₹17.35 lakh crore, against the budget estimate of ₹17.89 lakh crore.

The deficit-to-GDP ratio was estimated to improve to 5.8% in FY24 from the budgeted 5.9%, despite slower-than-anticipated nominal growth.

While expenditure last fiscal was almost in sync with the revised estimates, actual revenue mop-up has potential for the upside, a senior official said on Thursday.
The government had estimated FY24 expenditure at₹44.9 lakh crore and revenue receipts (both tax and non-tax) at₹27 lakh crore.

The provisional fiscal deficit data for FY24 will be released end of May. Direct tax revenue rose 17.7% on year last fiscal to ₹19.58 lakh crore, higher than the revised estimate of ₹19.45 lakh crore.

He said the ongoing general election hasn’t adversely affected official expenditure plans, which are going on as budgeted.

The government, he indicated, may evaluate if indeed there is a need for another round of buying back of government securities. At an auction on Thursday, the Reserve Bank of India accepted offers to buy back government securities worth ₹10,510 crore, compared with the notified amount of ₹40,000 crore.

The interim Budget has adequate cushion to absorb expected shocks emanating from prevailing global situations, the official said. He didn’t expect any oil price shock to disrupt the government’s budget calculations, as any rise in global energy prices due to the geo-political tension has only limited impact on its balance sheet, he added.

Responding to a question on the plan to deal with a potential rise in inflows once JPMorgan includes Indian government bonds in its widely tracked emerging market debt index from June 2024, the official said authorities always remain prepared to deal with any potential surge in capital inflows or outflows.