(NewsNation) — Former President Donald Trump is the frontrunner for the GOP nomination for president. He’s leading in the polls, both nationally and in Iowa and New Hampshire, the two states where voters will first make their preferences known. Despite this, his opponents see a path to victory for themselves.
Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina and UN ambassador, is experiencing momentum. She’s now in second place in Iowa and New Hampshire. She raised $24 million just last quarter. And she’s secured some key conservative endorsements, most notably the prominent conservative group, Americans for Prosperity. But she’s still over 30 points behind Donald Trump in Iowa polls. Haley says she remains undaunted. At an event in Sioux City, Iowa last month, Haley said, “We just need to have a good showing in Iowa. I don’t think that means we have to win necessarily, but I think that means we have to have a good showing.”
Haley believes that she, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, and Trump are the competitive candidates in Iowa. Her campaign seems to be planning for DeSantis to underperform in the state.. Their thinking is, he’s gone all-in in Iowa so if he doesn’t do well, he’s likely to run out of support and money. Haley is aiming to land in a two-person race heading into the New Hampshire primary the following week.
According to polls, the race is a lot closer in New Hampshire. Haley is just 11 points, on average, behind Trump. She’s hoping to close that gap for a win or a close second. With that momentum, she heads to her home state of South Carolina where she expects people to come out and support her. But Donald Trump is very popular in South Carolina, where he’s ahead by almost 30 points in the polls. While anything is possible, she’s got an uphill battle in her own backyard.
To show his commitment to Iowa, Florida Governor and GOP candidate for president, Ron DeSantis has completed what’s known as “the full Grassley,” visiting all of Iowa’s 99 counties. It’s named after Iowa’s U.S. Senator, Chuck Grassley, who completes this tour every year. In addition, DeSantis has moved about a third of his campaign staff there and Never Back Down, a super PAC that supports him, has been on the ground in Iowa since June. But his poll numbers have been dropping and he’s now almost 40 points behind Trump, not what you want to see happen before an election. DeSantis says he remains optimistic.
At a Fox News town hall this past Wednesday night, DeSantis said, “I think what you’re seeing us do in Iowa is do it the old-fashioned way.[…]We have all the counties organized. People that have been involved in this process say it’s the best yet.”
His campaign hopes that his ground game, including knocking on doors and calling and texting voters to get their support, will make a huge difference. In an interview with NewsNation, Iowa GOP Chairman Jeff Kaufmann says a serious ground game can make a big difference citing Ted Cruz’s 2016 Iowa caucus win “Ted Cruz didn’t win the 2016 caucus because everybody fell in love with Ted Cruz that voted for him. Ted Cruz won because he had the best organizational effort.”
For DeSantis to win the nomination, he’d likely need to win or come in a close second in Iowa, and Trump and Haley would need to underperform. If that were to happen, DeSantis is betting donors and voters would quickly move their support to him in droves and that that momentum would carry him through the primaries to a victory next November.
Vivek Ramaswamy, a biotech entrepreneur running for the GOP nomination, says he’s focused his campaign on Iowa. He’s renting an apartment in Des Moines and completing a “double Grassley,” in the hopes of creating strong supporters in Iowa caucuses Monday night. Not only has he visited each county twice, his campaign told NewsNation they’re hoping to hit 390 campaign stops by Monday as well. While he’s only polling at just over six percent, Ramaswamy remains confident he’ll have a good night.
At an event in Sioux Center last month, Ramaswamy said, “Our strategy is to shock the expectations on January 15th […] I think we’re almost sitting exactly where we want to be with the expectations and the narrative being set very low […] if we score in the double digits, I think we’re well on our way to success.”
Ramaswamy says he’s relying on voters who don’t typically caucus to come out and support him, believing that if they do and his campaign overperforms against expectations, he’ll create momentum for New Hampshire and beyond.
One factor that all the campaigns, including Donald Trump’s, will have to contend with is the weather. The temperature on caucus night is currently expected to be -15 degrees. No one knows what impact that will have on turnout but it likely makes a campaign’s organization even more important.
There are just a few more days until we find out whose big bets have paid off, and whose campaigns may be hitting the end of the road.
