The Doomsday Clock has been set for 2024, with the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists declaring the world remains 90 seconds from global catastrophe.
The clock was founded in 1945 by Albert Einstein, J. Robert Oppenheimer, and University of Chicago scientists who helped develop the first atomic weapons in the Manhattan Project.
The clock is set every year by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Science and Security Board as an indicator of the world’s vulnerability to global catastrophe caused by man-made technologies.
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The clock has been getting progressively closer to catastrophe in recent years, set at two minutes to midnight in 2019 and at 100 seconds to midnight in 2022. It was then moved to 90 seconds in 2023, in part due to nuclear threats from Russian in its war on Ukraine.
This is “the closest to global catastrophe it has ever been”, the board’s editor John Mecklin said.
The clock remains at 90 seconds “because humanity continues to face an unprecedented level of danger,” he said.
“The war in Ukraine and the widespread and growing reliance on nuclear weapons increase the risk of nuclear escalation.
“China, Russia, and the United States are all spending huge sums to expand or modernise their nuclear arsenals, adding to the ever-present danger of nuclear war through mistake or miscalculation.”
Mecklin also cited the war in Gaza as having the “potential to escalate into a wider Middle Eastern conflict that could pose unpredictable threats, regionally and globally”.
Threat posed by climate change
Climate change also presents a serious threat globally, Mecklin said.
“In 2023, Earth experienced its hottest year on record, and massive floods, wildfires, and other climate-related disasters affected millions of people around the world,” he said.
“Both global and North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures broke records, and Antarctic sea ice reached its lowest daily extent since the advent of satellite data.
“The world already risks exceeding a goal of the Paris climate agreement— a temperature increase of no more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels — because of insufficient commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and insufficient implementation of commitments already made.
“To halt further warming, the world must achieve net-zero carbon dioxide emissions.”
Concerns about disruptive technologies
“Rapid and worrisome developments in the life sciences and other disruptive technologies,” remained a concern, Mecklin said.
These technologies have accelerated, but governments have “made only feeble efforts to control them”, he said.
“The convergence of emerging artificial intelligence tools and biological technologies may radically empower individuals to misuse biology.
“One of the most significant technological developments in the last year involved the dramatic advance of generative artificial intelligence.”
Accelerating military uses of AI are concerning, Mecklin said.
“Extensive use of AI is already occurring in intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, simulation, and training,” he said.
“Of particular concern are lethal autonomous weapons, which identify and destroy targets without human intervention.
“Decisions to put AI in control of important physical systems—in particular, nuclear weapons—could indeed pose a direct existential threat to humanity.”
Everyone on Earth should have an interest in reducing the likelihood of global catastrophe, Mecklin said.
“These threats, singularly and as they interact, are of such a character and magnitude that no one nation or leader can bring them under control,” he said.
“That is the task of leaders and nations working together in the shared belief that common threats demand common action.”
Mecklin called on the United States, China and Russia in particular to make efforts to address the Board’s concerns.
“At the highest levels, these three countries need to take responsibility for the existential danger the world now faces,” he said.
“They have the capacity to pull the world back from the brink of catastrophe.
“They should do so, with clarity and courage, and without delay.”
