(NewsNation) — By the end of the decade, the world will have more oil than it knows what to do with, according to a new report.
Global oil demand will peak by 2029 and then contract while supply is expected to grow, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its new oil market outlook.
If the forecast is correct, by 2030, there will be a “staggering” surplus of oil amounting to millions of barrels per day, the IEA warned. That would result in levels of spare capacity “unseen outside of the Covid crisis.”
“Such a massive oil production buffer could usher in a lower oil price environment, posing tough challenges for producers in the US shale patch and the OPEC+ bloc,” the report said.
The IEA attributed the slowdown in demand to the renewable energy transition and changes to China’s economy.
On the supply side, a surge in production capacity led by the U.S. and other non-OPEC countries in the Americas is expected to outpace demand growth over the next five years.
One of the reasons cited for excess oil is the rise in electric vehicles, which is expected to lower consumer demand for fuel. Global EV sales could hit 40 million in 2030 with almost one in two new cars projected to be an EV, the IEA forecasted.
“Our forecast is highly dependent on EV ownership extending beyond early adopters and finding mass-market acceptance in Western economies,” the report said.
Despite a rapid increase in market share, surveys suggest most Americans are holding off on buying an EV for now. However, that could change as manufacturers address affordability and range anxiety concerns.
The IEA’s new report contrasts the outlook of the oil cartel OPEC, which doesn’t foresee a peak in oil demand and expects the clean energy transition to happen more slowly.
OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais criticized IEA’s projections Thursday and accused the Paris-based advisory organization of pushing an “anti-oil narrative.”
“It is a dangerous commentary, especially for consumers, and will only lead to energy volatility on a potentially unprecedented scale,” he said.
Earlier this month, the de-facto Saudi-led group agreed to extend supply cuts to bolster prices.
As for how an oil glut would impact prices at the pump, it’s too early to know. IEA’s analysis included long-term oil price forecasts that ranged from more than $90 a barrel on the high end and less than $60 a barrel on the low end.
Today, the price for a barrel of Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, is roughly $81 a barrel. The current national average for a gallon of regular is $3.46.
