Why muted expectations for 2024 Blue Jays may not be a bad thing

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Maybe it was an underwhelming regular season that fell short of the lofty expectations that had been soaring for the Blue Jays a year ago.

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Maybe it was the rather spectacular exit from the post-season, a disaster in which the team scored one measly run in a two-game sweep at the hands of the Minnesota Twins.

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Or perhaps it was an underwhelming off-season in which some key division rivals appeared to do more in the improvement department than Jays GM Ross Atkins.

Whatever the cause — and it’s likely a confluence of all of the above — when the team officially begins pre-season action in Dunedin, Fla., next week, some external prognostications for the Jays are decidedly more muted than they have been the previous two seasons.

And perhaps the frostier forecast may not be a terrible thing for a team with something to prove in 2024 and quietly will make that mindset a staple throughout spring training.

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Pre-Grapefruit League rankings by the statistical and analytics gurus at Fangraphs project the Jays to finish fourth in the AL East behind the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays.

Based on their data, Fangraphs analysts have determined that the Jays have just a 13.4% chance to win their division, well behind the Yankees at 39.1%.

Perhaps most surprising, the Jays are listed at just 44.5% to make the playoffs behind the Yankees (74.4%), the Rays (57.7%), and the Orioles (54.9%). Even with those well-documented struggles in 2023 and a winter that has yet to pop, it’s difficult to envision the Jays regressing that much, isn’t it?

Of course, the current Fangraph forecasting is a far cry from a year ago when the Jays were touted in the mix as World Series contenders and confidently and justifiably set the division title as their goal.

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Fangraphs supported the notion, tabbing the Jays with a 29.4% shot at the AL East and 72% chance to make the post-season.

In 2022, the Jays were the pre-season division favourites at 43.8% and 89.6% to make the post-season.

There are plenty of caveats with such prognostications, of course, starting with the big one — the off-season isn’t even over yet.

As protracted as it has been, there still remains a possibility that Atkins will be able to further add to the roster.

Then there are the other unknowns, with the potential rebound of former all-star starter Alek Manoah topping that list.

After pitchers and catchers report next Thursday, there will be six full weeks until opening day, plenty of time for the Jays to script a new narrative of positivity.

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The focus will be on improvement internally, as it should be.

The relative quiet on the outside? Not necessarily a bad thing.

TURNER TOUTS BO

As the most prominent new face (and bat) due to arrive at Blue Jays spring training this month, Justin Turner is looking forward to a crash course on learning the nuances of his new teammates.

But one player he already knows a thing or two about is high on the list for the 39-year-old former World Series champ.

Represented by the same agent as Bo Bichette, Turner has paid particular attention to the all-star shortstop and clearly admires the arsenal he brings to the plate.

“He has a lot of different clubs in his bag,” Turner said recently. “He knows how to drive the ball to all fields. He can hit the long ball. He makes two-strike adjustments. He takes pride in putting the ball in play and not striking out. He can hit behind guys.”

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Though 14 years his junior, Turner sees in Bichette the hitter as having a veteran-style maturity.

“I haven’t had opportunity to get too into detail with him, I just think the professionalism in the at bat (is impressive),” Turner said “He knows how to drive the ball to all fields, he makes two-strike adjustments he takes pride in putting the ball in play and not striking out. He can hit behind guys. He can do a lot of things.

“Obviously hitting is in his DNA so I’m looking forward to being around him and hoping to learn some stuff from him as well.”

VLAD’S RICHES

Some perspective on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s arbitration victory over Jays management earlier this week.

With the $19.9 million US the three-time all star will earn this season, he is now checks in at fourth-highest on the Jays payroll behind Kevin Gausman ($24 million), George Springer ($22.5 million) and Chris Bassitt ($21 million).

Another pitcher, Jose Berrios rounds out the top five at $17 million, followed by newcomer Turner at $13 million.

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