After months of vetoing other UN security council resolutions in a bid to defend Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, the US has in recent weeks gone on to the diplomatic front foot in New York drafting and tabling its own resolution that will be put to a vote on Friday.
The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, says the resolution sends “a strong signal”. But what is that signal precisely?
What does the US resolution say?
The opening wording on an immediate ceasefire is complex, even convoluted. It notes the imperative for “an immediate and sustained ceasefire to protect civilians on all sides, allow for the delivery of essential humanitarian assistance, and alleviate humanitarian suffering”.
It thereby supports “diplomatic efforts to secure such a ceasefire in connection with the release of all remaining hostages”. America’s critics, including Russia, note the text does not explicitly use the word “call” in terms of a ceasefire. It also implies the ceasefire is conditional on the release of all hostages. As such, the text is an important tonal shift for the US, as opposed to a substantive one.
Will it pass?
The Russian deputy ambassador to the UN, Dmitry Polyanskiy, told reporters on Thursday: “We are not satisfied with anything which doesn’t call for an immediate ceasefire”,, which implies that Moscow could use its veto. A rival draft resolution is also circulating that is more explicit about an immediate ceasefire, but this will not be put to the vote on Thursday. The US claims its draft has the support of at least nine of the 15-strong security council members, enough for the vote to pass so long as no veto is wielded by one of the five security council members.
Would it matter?
Diplomatically, the US could benefit from showing some positive leadership at the UN and demonstrating it is not as isolated as it has appeared in its support for Israel. The bulk of the operational part of the text is directed at Israel without being explicit in its criticisms. It reiterates calls for aid to flow, including the opening of more land crossings and fewer restrictions on goods allowed to enter Gaza. It opposes the forcible displacement of Palestinians, and buffer zones. It would also be the first time that the UN collectively condemned Hamas by calling for restrictions on its finances.
The resolution is silent on three contentious issues. In a clause directed at Israel, it urges all parties to cooperate with the investigations into the neutrality of the UN relief works agency Unrwa, but it does not call for the refunding of the agency at this stage. The future governance of Gaza is largely untouched save to give the UN special coordinator a clear role. It does not say if international humanitarian law is being breached.
What happens if the resolution is defeated?
France’s ambassador to the UN, Nicolas de Rivière, has said if the US text is rejected then the alternative draft championed by the non-permanent members of the security council calling for an immediate ceasefire in Ramadan “will come to the table and put to the vote”. He said: “We need a ceasefire and then talks”.
