Wednesday briefing: What Israel’s Rafah offensive means for the prospect of peace | Gaza

Good morning. Israel has threatened to expand its military operation in Rafah after it seized control of the Palestinian side of the Rafah border crossing – which was the key remaining land route to get desperately needed aid into Gaza, where millions of people are suffering an escalating humanitarian crisis.

The Israeli military said it had taken “operational control” of the border with Egypt in a “precise and limited operation”, but gave notice that it will soon be followed by an “extreme force” ground offensive that the UN warns could lead to the “slaughter of civilians”. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) has begun dropping flyers on relief camps in Rafah, ordering Palestinians – many of whom have already fled the conflict, sometimes several times – to immediately evacuate.

The United States, the United Nations and the European Union have repeatedly warned Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, against attacking Rafah, but he has vowed to defy international pressure. “We’ll go there,” he said in an interview in March. “You know, I have a red line. You know what the red line is? That October 7 doesn’t happen again. Never happens again.”

For today’s newsletter I spoke to Peter Beaumont, a senior Guardian international reporter who has worked extensively in the region for decades, about the significance of the Rafah crossing and what the latest Israeli offensive means for the prospect of peace in a conflict that was ignited by the deaths of more than 1,100 Israelis and after seven months has resulted in at least 34,000 deaths among Palestinians. That’s after the headlines.

Five big stories

1. Israel-Gaza war | Joe Biden’s administration paused a shipment of weapons to Israel last week in opposition to apparent moves by the Israelis to invade the southern Gaza city of Rafah, a senior administration official has said. Israel has launched a major military offensive against Hamas forces in Gaza’s southernmost city, seizing control of a key border crossing and cutting off most aid a day before indirect talks on a ceasefire deal are due to restart.

2. US | Donald Trump’s criminal trial entered a new stage on Tuesday with testimony from Stormy Daniels, an adult film star at the center of his hush-money scandal. Daniels told jurors that she had a sexual liaison with Trump in 2006 that left her nervous and ashamed.

3. Scotland | The new Scottish National party leader John Swinney will become Scotland’s seventh first minister after winning the backing of MSPs. Swinney won the vote eight days after Humza Yousaf announced his departure.

4. Health | The Cass review “absolutely” did not set an unfairly high bar for evidence, its author has said, as she addressed “significant misinformation” about her assessment of healthcare provision for gender-questioning young people in England and Wales.

5. Garrick Club | The men-only Garrick Club in London has finally voted to allow women to become members, 193 years after it first opened its doors. 562 members (59.98%) voted in favour and 375 (40.02%) against, in a private meeting where several hundred members spent two hours debating whether to permit women to join.

In depth: ‘God knows where we will go now’

“Rafah was the one border crossing not directly under Israel’s control,” says Peter. “And they have long vowed to take control of it, as they see it as key to stopping Hamas as they can try to cut off their supplies.”

Peter says that if you think of the Gaza Strip as an oblong, Israel borders it to the north and the east. On the west is the Mediterranean, which is patrolled by Israeli gun boats enforcing a naval blockade. “That leaves the small southern border with Egypt, and the Rafah crossing, which was very tightly controlled by Egypt as the only release valve allowing aid in and people on the evacuation list to get out.”

The release – or apparently authorised leak – of clips of soldiers raising Israeli flags and using a tank to destroy a concrete “I Love Gaza” sign at the crossing also suggest a symbolic purpose to the offensive, the Guardian’s Jason Burke says in his analysis from Jerusalem. “This may be to frame the operation as the final – and so far elusive – victory ahead of concessions in negotiations,” he writes.

The nearby Kerem Shalom crossing between Israel and Gaza, which was also a route for getting aid into Gaza, has been shut since Sunday after four Israeli soldiers stationed there were killed in rocket attacks. It led Jens Laerke, the United Nations humanitarian spokesperson, to warn that the crisis in Gaza will now rapidly escalate. “The two main arteries for getting aid into Gaza are currently choked off,” he said. “If no fuel comes in for a prolonged period of time it would be a very effective way of putting the humanitarian operation in its grave.”

The European Union’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell said: “The Rafah offensive has started again in spite [of] all the requests of the international community, the US, the European Union member states, everybody asking Netanyahu not to attack. I am afraid that this is going to cause again a lot of casualties, civilian casualties. Whatever they say.”

Where are the people in Rafah being evacuated to?

IDF leaflet drops, mass text messages and social media posts warn that the military will “act with extreme force against the terrorist organisations in the areas where you live”. It orders that “for your safety, the Israel Defence Forces calls on you to evacuate immediately to the humanitarian zone”.

The leaflets, in Arabic, show a map with nine blocks in south-eastern Rafah where it says IDF forces will be operating, and instructs about 100,000 people living or sheltering there to immediately evacuate to al-Mawasi, a strip of land along the Mediterranean coast. In social media posts, the IDF said it had expanded the al-Mawasi area with more “field hospitals, tents and increased amounts of food, water, medication and additional supplies”.

However, aid agencies warned that the area does not have the infrastructure to cope with a fresh influx of people. “Al-Mawasi has been designated a so-called ‘safe humanitarian zone’, but it is not safe,” Islamic Relief said. “Civilians sheltering there say they continue to face attacks and severe shortages of food, water and other vital aid. Forcing more people there will make the humanitarian crisis even worse.”

Tjada D’Oyen McKenna, chief executive of humanitarian aid charity Mercy Corps, said al-Mawasi was already “uninhabitable” before the evacuation order. “Our team members report tents stretched endlessly under scorching sun with no relief in sight and no electricity, water, or aid.”

Among families leaving Rafah with their possessions piled up on pickup trucks and donkey carts was Abdullah Al-Najar, who told Reuters it was the fourth time his family had been displaced since the war began in October. “God knows where we will go now,” he said.

What does the Rafah offensive mean for prospects of a ceasefire?

The IDF’s seizure of the border yesterday morning came just hours after Hamas said it had accepted a three-stage ceasefire-for-hostage deal brokered by Egypt, Qatar and the US. It would have led to an initial 42-day ceasefire and the release of the remaining Israeli hostages seized by Hamas during the 7 October attacks in exchange for the release of Palestinians held in Israeli jails.

But, on Monday night – shortly before the offensive on the Rafah crossing – Netanyahu rejected the Hamas proposal, which he said was “far from Israel’s requirements”. He said his negotiators would continue to engage in talks “to exhaust the possibility of reaching an agreement under conditions acceptable to Israel”.

Netanyahu is under pressure from his far-right coalition partners not to accept a deal that leaves Hamas in charge of any part of Gaza. They have told him that if he is seen to have gone too soft on Hamas they will resign and collapse the government. Finance minister Bezalel Smotrich has said the government would have “no right to exist” unless Israel invades Rafah.

At the same time, Netanyahu is also facing growing pressure from Israelis to agree to a ceasefire. On Monday night protesters marched towards his residence in Jerusalem with a banner reading: “The blood is on your hands”.

Peter says that while the Rafah offensive has ratcheted up the pressure of the war, it does not necessarily make the signing of a ceasefire deal less likely. “Just because people are killing each other doesn’t mean a ceasefire can’t happen,” he says. “Wars often finish with extreme violence. You can have two things going on at the same time – a military track and negotiation track – right up to the wire.”

The US last night expressed optimism that a ceasefire deal was still within reach. “A close assessment of the two sides’ positions suggests that they should be able to close the remaining gaps,” White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said. “We’re going to do everything we can to support that process and achieve that outcome.”

What else we’ve been reading

• No corner of Gazan society has escaped the crushing devastation of the war. With many stadiums levelled and athletes killed or left with life-changing injuries, Abubaker Abed writes movingly about how Gaza’s once-thriving sporting scene has been decimated. Nimo

• Finally, someone has combined two great passions: techno and trains. Meet Timm Schirmer, the 27-year-old German DJ behind the 12-carriage Techno Train that trundles through the Bavarian countryside twice a year. Tickets sell out in seconds, but luckily Jamie Fullerton got one and takes us along for the ride. Rupert

• Remember Snapchat? Well, apparently, it’s still around and it is managing to keep up with Silicon Valley giants like Meta by rejigging its business model. Alex Hern met Ronan Harris, the company’s EMEA president, to discuss the changes in this week’s TechScape newsletter, which you can sign up for here. Nimo

• It’s the Eurovision final this weekend, and Alexis Petridis has got us covered with a guide to the bangers to look out for, from Finland’s mulleted Windows95man to a Slovenian entry loosely based on 15th-century witch trials. Rupert

• Catastrophic floods caused by Kenya’s wet season have destroyed homes, displaced thousands and killed hundreds of residents (above). Caroline Kimeu spoke with people whose lives have been upended by the extreme weather and their government’s chaotic demolition plans. Nimo

Sport

Football | Mats Hummels’ second-half header defeated Paris Saint-Germain 2-0 on aggregate and secured a Champions League final place for Borussia Dortmund.

Rugby league | Australia are the frontrunners to win the race to host the next Rugby League World Cup in 2026, with an announcement expected about the rearranged tournament in the coming weeks, the Guardian understands.

Football | Manchester United coaching staff believe the squad has too few vocal leaders and that the injured Lisandro Martínez has been sorely missed in that regard. The defender has missed 37 of United’s 48 games owing to foot, knee and calf problems, including Monday’s humiliating 4-0 defeat at Crystal Palace.

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