Vijay Kedia: Chase the story behind a stock, not money on the table: Vijay Kedia

You do not have a selling price in mind for Atul Auto?
No. I do not have any price target. I do not have any, what you call, time target also. Flow with the time. You never know what you can become, as I said. And maybe suppose if you put a target for yourself, toh malum pada aap ka target hi chhota tha. Aap ne kya socha, aap ne woh toh manzilein aur bhi hai. It is like saying you are standing at the base camp. You know Everest is tall. You cannot see it right now because it is crowded, but you know that you have the potential to climb?
Exactly.What will prompt you to exit this investment because being an investor you will also look at the good, bad, the development, the realistic picture of the global market? Let us hope it works. But for it not to work, what would be that moment when you would say, okay, I took a bet and it has not moved as per what I thought?
I will tell you one thing. The answer is this. Like, I do not know anything happening here. As you know that I am not a technocrat. I do not know. I know nothing. So, when the team which is working, which is building this corporate corporation, if they lose their fire in the belly and suppose if they cannot perform, so that could be one of the reasons that I would think that now nothing can be done with this team and I cannot change the team also, if such kind of scenario suppose comes up, then I may think of exiting. Have you made any investments in 2024?
I would say not much. But which was the last big investment you made?
I had invested in Reliance Infrastructure, as you know, because it is on public domain. But now I am thinking that maybe that call was wrong. Maybe while I am talking to you as of now, I am thinking maybe that call was wrong. So, it is okay. We will see to it.

But are you holding on to your all other investments, Vaibhav and even for matter Tejas?
Tejas Network and all those, yes, yes, I am holding, more or less I am holding. Maybe I have sold little bit here and there, just to buy some new companies and all, but I still have a meaningful stake in those companies.

Where is the franchise headed, now because IndiGo is the third or the fourth largest airline in the world in terms of market cap. Do you think large money is being made?
I tell you one thing, we should always keep our aim high. Whenever the promoter of this IndiGo sells his shares I always feel ki share bechta na, main leleta hu sara shares.

So, now we know that who is buying the share in the block deal.
No, no, no, no. I cannot buy because he is selling Rs 2000 crores worth of shares. Mera aukat utna hai nahi bhai. But always it comes into my mind yeh share bechta, main kaise shares le lu. Coming to your point, I feel this is a sunrise sector, yes. Now, at that time, whatever data I gave to you in 2023 budget day, now everybody is talking about those data.

I think the sky is the limit for this company. And it is not a recommendation, but I am holding my shares. I have told this, there is a quote of mine that when luxury becomes necessity, a big story is there in the making. I think same thing is happening in this airlines industry. So, it has miles to go.

Where to your mind are the red flags in the market? Khatre ki ghanti kha par rahegi?
Khatre ki ghanti roz chalti hai boss, roz yaha ghanti bajti hai. Jab bazar ki ghanti bajti hai na toh sab ko lagta hai khatra aane wala hai. Jab bandh ho jata hai bazar toh sab ko lagta hai khatre ki ghanti band ho gai. Fir raat ko US ka market dekhte hai bolte hai khatre ki ghanti chalu ho gai. Yeh toh roz ka yaha par chalta rahega. Lakin khatre ki ghanti maine kya? Yeh sab chalta rahega, kabhi aap index ko dekh kar khatra samjho, kabhi midcap ko dekh kar khatra samjho. Toh khatra aap ke mind mein hai. Khatra toh rahega hi bhai, khatro se khelna hamara shonk hai bhai. Share bazar mein aap investor ho, toh khatro se khelna aap seekh hi gai na. Toh us se kya darna. Pyar kiya toh darna kya.

If somebody has taken a three- to five-year view, genuine three- to five-year view, eight out of ten people are telling us, okay, we like India but valuations are expensive. We want to invest, but we will invest after an event. We want to invest only when markets are down 15-20%. What would you tell to those who want to invest, but are waiting for the decline because decline is not coming.
They will never buy. They are fence sitter.

So, life mein look back karke, we should always not feel bad as to what we wanted to and we never did?
Yes.

So, the risk in this market of not investing is a bigger risk rather than the risk of the fall?
Yes, exactly.

In a bull market like they say, there are two ways in which you can do it. Way number one, you can wait for the correction and wait number two, that you buy with an assumption that there could be 15-20% downside, but eventually it will be higher.
That is the best practice. Nobody can defeat you. Just to think that I am buying the shares at any price and it can fall 15-20%, fir aap ko koi nahi hara sakta.

So more money is lost in waiting for the correction rather than when the correction actually occurs. Correction actually happens.

Toh yeh aap implement karte ho? If you like the idea, you just buy it.
100%, woh nahi luga toh mereko raat ko neend nahi aati hai bhai.

And if you do not have capital that time, how do you buy?
Tab toh fir tamasha dekho fir aur kya hai.

But are you fully invested?
Yes, I am fully invested.

And you think that the commitment levels, wherever you have in the four-five holdings, public holdings, you are happy to own them for three-five years?
Yes, I am very happy to own them.

All the companies which you have tracked, when you look at the quarterly numbers and the management commentary, middle of earnings season, you are satisfied as an investor?
Yes, yes, satisfied because I do not look at quarter on quarter basis. Of course, I watch numbers, but that does not disturb me. I will give you one example of Tejas Network. Tejas Network did not perform in the last one year. In the last 10-12 months, the stock price did not move up. On the contrary, from Rs 950, it fell down to Rs 620, 15 days back.
So, kya quarterly number dekhne ka hai. Humko target dekhne ka hai, chase the story behind the stock, not money on the table. Money will make you rich, but story will make you wealthy.