Children across the UK may be dreaming of a white Christmas, but unless they find themselves alongside some hardy sheep on high ground in Scotland they are likely to be disappointed.
Most of the UK can instead expect a damp, blowy and unseasonably warm Christmas Day, with temperatures up to 12 or 13C in the south of England.
Forecasters said it was unlikely that the record for the warmest Christmas Day on record – set in Killerton, Devon, in 1920, when the temperature reached 15.6C – would be broken, but temperatures would still be 5-6C warmer than normal for this time of year.
But the record temperature for Christmas Eve – also 15.6C, recorded in Scotland – could be broken, because of the foehn effect, a change from wet and cold conditions on one side of a mountain, to warmer and drier conditions on the other.
“There is a chance that we could see 15, even 16C and if we see those sorts of temperatures been recorded, then it’s likely to be the warmest Christmas Eve on record,” said meteorologist Liam Eslick.” It is only a small chance at the moment, but it does highlight the fact that is extremely mild for the time of year.”
The UK recorded its hottest day of the year in September, which saw the longest prolonged period of hot weather ever seen in that month. Earlier this year analysis by Climate Central said that heatwaves were made five times more likely by the climate crisis.
People travelling to visit family and friends or get away from fractious festivities on Christmas Eve have been warned to beware of strong winds causing flying debris and power cuts.
Two separate yellow wind warnings have been issued by the Met Office in Scotland and northern and central areas of England, with warnings of travel disruption, damage to buildings and power cuts, on Christmas Eve while the rest of the country may see showers during the day. A rain warning is in place for Wales, where there has been heavy rain for several days.
The weather warnings are due to expire at midnight, but the weather on Christmas Day will remain gusty and damp, said Eslick.
“It only takes one snowflake to fall for it to be declared a white Christmas,” he said. “And it’s not out of the question that we will see a few flakes, but it’s probably going to be 200 metres elevation, probably in Scotland, and not that many people will be there to see it. For most of the UK it is still quite a blustery day, and quite breezy one for people who are looking to get out and about.”
The best time to set out to walk off the excesses of Christmas Day is likely to be Boxing Day, as a ridge of high pressure builds in the UK, with bright sunny spells in Scotland and the north with more cloud in the south. “If people are looking to get out over the bank holiday, Boxing Day is probably the best day for it is going to be quite calm, quite nice and those temperatures will come down a bit but still be quite mild.”
