An exchange trader at the Frankfurt Stock Exchange looks at his monitors.
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This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
What you need to know today
UK Labour landslide victory, exit poll
The center-left Labour Party is projected to win the U.K. election by a landslide, according to an exit poll, ending 14 years of Conservative rule. Kier Starmer’s party is forecast to win 410 seats, a 170 seat majority in parliament. Polls closed at 10 p.m. London time and counting is expected to continue through the night with a clear picture emerging in the early hours as constituencies declare results. You can get live updates as the count comes in.
Europe up, political risks ease
European stocks rose with French banking stocks BNP Paribas and Societe Generale leading gains as opinion polls suggested the French far-right would fall short of a majority to govern. The regional Stoxx 600 closed higher for a second straight session. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 rose as Britons went to the polls. Yields on U.K. government bonds, known as gilts, and the British pound were little changed. Wall Street was closed for the Independence Day holiday.
Short losses
Tesla‘s strong delivery report has caused significant losses for short sellers, with the stock rallying 17% in two days and short sellers losing $3.5 billion, according to S3 Partners. Tesla shares have surged 73% since April, nearing recovery with the stock $2 shy of wiping out losses for the year. Short interest is at 3.5% of the float, or 97 million shares, valued at $22.4 billion.
Friday’s ‘slowing payroll’
The June nonfarm payrolls report takes on added significance amid signs of a slowing labor market. Payroll gains in 2024 have slowed compared to last year, with economists predicting growth of 200,000 jobs for June, down from May’s 272,000. While job gains remain historically solid, rising unemployment levels and broader economic uncertainty have raised concerns about future economic weakness.
Saks deal
Saks Fifth Avenue parent HBC will acquire Neiman Marcus Group in a $2.65 billion deal, creating a new luxury retail giant. The combined entity will include Saks Fifth Avenue, Saks OFF 5TH, Neiman Marcus and Bergdorf Goodman. The move comes amid a challenging period for traditional brick-and-mortar retail, with department stores struggling to attract younger shoppers and facing a pullback in discretionary spending.
[PRO] Evercore’s ‘best ideas’
After a strong first-half performance for equities, fueled by the AI boom, Evercore ISI maintains its top stock picks for the second half of 2024. Their “best ideas” list, based on a long-term investment outlook, includes both AI beneficiaries and stocks facing recent pressure. Here are Evercore ISI’s best stock ideas for the second half.
The bottom line
Britain’s pollsters have been predicting a landslide victory for the center-left Labour Party for the last two years. Labour leader Keir Starmer, if all goes to plan, will inherit an economy that’s turning a corner after a technical recession in the second half of 2023. However, the labor market is cooling, interest rates are likely to remain high despite easing inflation and there isn’t enough fiscal room to fix all the economy’s ills.
Nonetheless, RBC Capital Markets analysts note parallels between current market trends and the 1997 U.K. election, the last Conservative to Labour transition. Markets could see notable post-election gains and here are some sectors and stocks that may benefit.
With one election out of the way, attention will turn to France, where the far-right is expected to fall short of a majority, according to pollsters. Banking stocks BNP Paribas and Societe Generale rose on the latest exit polls. The Euro Stoxx 50 volatility index has come off its highs after President Emmanuel Macron called the shock snap elections.
“Financial markets are actually taking the current and upcoming election risks in their stride… This is not to say that we do not add any political risk premium at all though, because matters will heat up as the U.S. elections near in November,” Jameel Ahmad, chief analyst at GTC Group based in Dubai, said.
“It is the US where matters are more unclear, with uncertainty spread out in the run-up to November. For example, will [President Joe] Biden actually be running and what are the actual campaign policies of Trump?”
While Biden’s team has said the president has no plans to withdraw, Vice President Kamala Harris‘ allies are privately discussing what her candidacy would look like.
As the S&P 500 continues to hit fresh record highs, investors may wonder whether now is the right time to diversify from the market cap-weighted benchmark in case of a pullback. However, CFRA’s Sam Stovall said allocating toward an equal-weighted index historically does little to protect investors.
“If history is any guide, for it is never gospel, investors need to be reminded that the equal-weighted versions of cap-weighted benchmarks have typically endured deeper selloffs and reduced frequencies of outperformance compared to their cap-weighted cousins during declines of 10% or more for the S&P 500 (since 1990), Nasdaq-100 (2007), Russell 2000 (2000), and S&P SmallCap 600 (2011),” Stovall wrote Wednesday.
“As a result, history showed that the collective approach to investing has frequently not lessened the magnitude of the eventual decline,” he added.
Attention will now turn to Friday’s jobs report, CNBC’s Jeff Cox tells us what to expect.
— CNBC’s Jeff Cox, Alex Harring, Sarah Min, Holly Ellyatt, Ganesh Rao, Brian Schwartz and Lora Kolodny contributed to this report.
