(NewsNation) — We’re in the grip of March Madness but still eight months away from the ultimate political madness: the U.S. presidential election.
The NCAA basketball tournament serves as a great metaphor for examining what “The Hill Sunday” host Chris Stirewalt believes will be the four most competitive states — his own “Final Four.”
His No. 1 seed is Pennsylvania.
“It’s the big prize. It’s the state Biden absolutely, positively has to win. It’s Biden’s home state. He won its 19 electoral votes in 2020,” Stirewalt says.
According to a new CNN poll, Pennsylvania is deadlocked: 46% for Biden and 46% for Trump. (The poll has a 3.8% margin of error.)
Another “top seed” is Michigan and its 15 electoral votes. Biden also won the Great Lakes State four years ago.
“It is hugely important,” says Stirewalt.
Another new CNN/SSRS poll is great news for the Trump campaign. He leads Biden 50% to 42% in Michigan (a 3.6% margin of error).
Biden’s key to a Michigan victory, using Stirewalt’s basketball analogy: driving the lane, another way of saying that Biden must get his base together.
“You have a lot of younger voters. You have a lot of Arab American voters. You have a lot of people who have a beef with Joe Biden, and they’re letting him know it,” Stirewalt says.
No. 3 on the Stirewalt “Final Four” list: Wisconsin, with ten electoral votes.
“The story in Wisconsin is a ‘shooting foul.’ Donald Trump has foul trouble in Wisconsin. You have a lot of affluent, earnest, well-intentioned suburban voters … that just are creeped out by Donald Trump, and they don’t want to vote for him,” Stirewalt notes.
The final of the four is Arizona. Stirewalt’s key to winning its 11 electoral votes is “help from the bench.”
“They’ve got a bad, bad U.S. Senate race. It’s going to be hot garbage. They’ve got Kari Lake, who is trying to move to the middle, versus Reuben Gallego, who’s trying to move to the middle from the progressive left. This is one of the few races where the down-ballot race will actually affect the up-ballot race,” he says.
