The Buffalo Bills are the most fascinating story of the NFL offseason. Ever since Josh Allen ascended to the tier level of NFL quarterbacks in 2020, the team has headed into the season with Super Bowl expectations … and then fallen bitterly short.
Windows in the NFL are never as long as teams hope. Injuries mount up. The cap bites. A botched free agent signing or a coaching snafu can be the difference between winning it all and exiting the playoffs early. Since 2021, the Bills have experienced it all, from the painful to the bizarre:
This offseason has brought a mini-reboot. Gone are stalwarts of the team’s recent success. Tre’Davious White, Jordan Poyer, Gabe Davis, Mitch Morse, Tyrel Dodson and Leonard Floyd were all allowed to walk in free agency. On Monday, they traded away Stefon Diggs to the Texans for a future second-round pick. And the trade is an oddity: a win-win. The Bills were able to unload an ageing player on an expensive contract and recoup a high pick. The Texans add a talented veteran to a young core.
By unloading veterans and choosing not to replace them in free agency, the Bills are betting on the idea that Allen is the only player who truly matters to keep their title hopes on track. “You have to have a franchise quarterback to be a consistent contender … I don’t think our window is closing,” GM Brandon Beane told ESPN last week. “There’s changes, salary changes, draft changes. All the things as you evolve your roster. It all still builds around the quarterback.”
Through that prism, moving Diggs makes sense. Diggs regressed last season. There had been tensions simmering between the receiver, organization and Allen dating back to last year’s training camp. His performance dipped drastically over the second half of last season, in part due to the Bills switching out coordinators. In the playoffs, he’s become a non-factor. Diggs has not caught a touchdown pass in his last seven playoff games and has failed to top 60 yards in his six postseason appearances, averaging just six yards a target.
In Houston, Diggs will lineup on an offense with three top-30 receivers and CJ Stroud, one of the league’s emerging stars, at quarterback. With their offseason moves, the Texans have vaulted into the Bengals and Ravens class of contenders.
Things are murkier in Buffalo. The Bills have signed or acquired just three new starters so far this offseason and only one on offense. The Ravens have added six new projected starters. The Bengals have added five. The Dolphins, seven. The Texans, eight.
Buffalo sacrificed future flexibility to go all-in in 2022 after the ‘13 seconds’ debacle in Kansas City. When that failed, they delayed an inevitable teardown to take one more run at a title. And it ended the same way things always do for the Bills these days, with a disappointing outing in the playoffs. Now, they’re resetting, letting costly veterans go, and hoping an injection of youth through the draft can be the difference-maker in the postseason.
It’s easy to rationalize Buffalo’s decisions. They’re building a new team, amassing young talent around a once-in-a-lifetime quarterback who is still just 27. But by gambling on youth and sitting out the veteran market, the Bills are in danger of letting this season slip by. Hoping you can retool the roster for another five-year surge would require believing that Allen can remaster his game or stay healthy. And those are the nagging question at the heart of the Bills organization: who do they want Allen to be? And for how long can he do it?
Early Allen teams prioritized the run game and defense elements that McDermott, a defensive-minded coach, believed would be the difference in the postseason. Now that approach has fallen short, they’re pivoting, stripping back their commitments on defense to try to put more talent around Allen. But the cap sins of the past have left them with a mediocre receiver group.
“Are we better today?,” Beane said after trading Diggs. “Probably not. It’s a work in progress, and we’re going to continue to work on that.”
Allen is an offense unto himself. If he were throwing to a parade of giraffes, the Bills’ offense would still have a high floor. But the Bills are not trying to eke out results; they’re working on a Super Bowl or Bust timeline. No organization is under more pressure to get over the line. The Bills cannot afford to drift into the NFL’s middle class. Delaying the reboot by one year was an error – and has ramped up the pressure to nail this offseason. If it doesn’t work out, the Bills will have chucked away two prime Allen years.
The kindest comparison to Allen and the Bills is Peyton Manning with the Colts. Indy spent the better part of a decade slamming their heads against the wall of New England. What Belichick and Brady were to Manning and the Colts, Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and the Chiefs are to Allen and the Bills. They’ve been bounced by the Chiefs twice in the past three postseasons, with a drubbing from the Bengals in the middle.
Eventually, Manning was able to break through thanks to the Colts nailing all the big decisions. The Bills, by contrast, have whiffed on their big targets. They built a team in the style of their head coach, prioritizing a defensive line that turned into a sieve in the playoffs. Of their last nine first- or second-round picks, four have been defensive linemen. In the same span, they’ve selected zero receivers in the first two rounds. Miller, whom the team handed a six-year, $120m contract to at the age of 33, tore his ACL in his debut season. He played only 258 downs last season and totted up zero sacks and three tackles. He turned 35 in March and is on the books for $15m next season.
Most importantly, though, Manning played a style that aged well. He was a technician. He was consistent. The Colts were able to build a bombs-away offense around a supercomputer who allowed them to compete year after year. But whereas Manning was the ultimate card counter, Allen plays quarterback like a labrador who has escaped from the house.
In contrast, Allen weaponizes chaos unlike any of the league’s top quarterbacks. Mahomes is a different version of himself today than the player who first entered the league. Even Lamar Jackson has become a player who submits to the wider offense for large stretches before exploding with moments of individual brilliance. For Allen, it’s the inverse: the offense is a rough framework through which he can embrace his whims. He runs through linebackers. He jumps over safeties. He will stiff arm a defensive end while hurling a deep shot 30 yards down the field.
It’s in those how-does-he-do-that moments that Allen’s genius is revealed. When slipped into the traditional quarterback straitjacket, Allen’s flaws – his questionable decision-making and the unnecessary gambles – are exposed. Ask him to drive down the field methodically, and he slips into Brett Favre territory.
No quarterback plays the position as violently as Allen. It’s what makes him Josh Allen. But how long can his body hold up under that style? The Bills recognize it won’t last forever. They want Allen to take off the cape, to play a more traditional brand of from-the-pocket football, to summon his inner Manning to help the team climb over the Chiefs.
“I don’t think that’s a healthy way to play quarterback in this league and it’s undefeated that things are going to happen when you play that style, brand of football,” head coach Sean McDermott told NFL Network earlier this offseason. Beane agrees. “If it’s the first quarter of Week 2, we don’t need you trying to run over a linebacker or a safety,” the GM said on NFL Radio.
The Bills are asking Allen to change his game. To reduce the violence. To minimize the risks. In other words, to be someone else.
Asking Allen to alter his approach is one thing. Providing him the assistance to do so is something else. If Allen is going to play in a more restricted fashion, he needs playmakers who can do the heavy lifting. Adding receiver Curtis Samuel in free agency was a start, but it’s far from enough. Hopes of the Bills jumping up the draft to grab one of this year’s top receiver prospects are doubtful: the Bills do not have the cap room to pay a top-10 rookie, and almost every rookie, no matter how talented, takes time to bed in.
Manning with the Colts is the best-case scenario for this Bills team. But you don’t need to squint hard to look at Allen with the Bills and see Cam Newton with the Panthers. McDermott lived through the Newton era in Carolina when he was the team’s defensive coordinator. He knows what it looks like when an overwhelming quarterback starts to break down and is asked to rely on a part of their game that has not been fully developed. Carolina reached one Super Bowl with Newton when the roster around him was good enough. Once his athleticism started to wane, and the injuries started to take their toll, the rest of the squad was no longer talented enough to compete.
The Bills are operating this offseason as if their window to win championships is open for as long as Allen is their quarterback. But, based on all evidence, Allen is closer to Newton on the quarterback continuum than Manning or Joe Burrow. Unless you have Mahomes or Tom Brady, opportunities to win Super Bowls are fleeting. Drew Brees won Super Bowl and Dan Marino, Phillip Rivers and Jim Kelly did not win any, despite contending for large chunks of their careers.
The AFC remains a gauntlet and is improving. Any team looking to get to the Super Bowl though the AFC has to run through a postseason where they will probably face two of Mahomes, Burrow, Jackson or Stroud. The Browns, Dolphins and Chargers are still lingering on the fringes. Aaron Rodgers will return to the Jets in 2024. By the time December rolls around, Trevor Lawrence or Anthony Richardson may have taken a step forward.
Assume normal luck, and the Bills should still top of the AFC East again, particularly after the Dolphins lost good players in free agency. But they need to find a pair of playmakers who can help push them past the Chiefs in January. Counting on rookies to be the difference-makers is a non-starter. With Diggs gone, the Bills must chase proven additions.
The window is not closed for Buffalo, but it is shrinking.
