This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
The New York Stock Exchange.
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What you need to know today
Record highs
The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed at record highs in a shortened session ahead of the July 4 Independence Day holiday. Megacap technology stocks, Tesla and Nvidia, led the charge. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed, weighed down by UnitedHealth. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell as the latest economic data indicated the jobs market was cooling. U.S. oil prices edged higher as demand rose ahead of the holiday.
‘Greater confidence’
Federal Reserve officials at their June meeting noted that while inflation was improving, it wasn’t yet enough to lower interest rates, according to minutes released Wednesday. “Participants affirmed that additional favorable data were required to give them greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent,” the meeting summary revealed. Despite some officials advocating for potential rate hikes, the Federal Open Market Committee ultimately decided to hold rates steady.
Job growth slows
Private payroll growth slowed in June, with companies adding 150,000 jobs compared to May’s 157,000, according to ADP. This was below expectations and marked the weakest growth since January, potentially signaling a cooling labor market. “Job growth has been solid, but not broad-based,” said ADP’s chief economist, Nela Richardson. “Had it not been for a rebound in hiring in leisure and hospitality, June would have been a downbeat month.” The ADP report precedes the Labor Department’s broader nonfarm payrolls data due Friday, which is projected to show 200,000 jobs were added.
Poison pill
Southwest Airlines adopted a “poison pill” shareholder rights plan in response to activist investor Elliott Management’s stake and push for leadership changes. The plan, triggered if any investor acquires 12.5% or more of the company, allows other shareholders to buy discounted shares, effectively diluting the activist’s stake. Elliott currently holds around 11% of Southwest and has criticized the airline’s performance compared to competitors and pushed to oust CEO Bob Jordan and Chairman Gary Kelly.
JPMorgan’s Kolanovic leaves
Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan’s chief global markets strategist and co-head of global research, and one of the biggest bears in the bull market, is leaving the firm. Known for accurately predicting a stock market rebound during the Covid-19 pandemic, Kolanovic has been bearish recently despite market highs. JPMorgan’s year-end S&P 500 prediction is 4,200, the lowest among major firms. Officially the call has been credited to Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, who will takeover as the chief markets strategist. The S&P 500 is up nearly 17% this year, closing above 5,537 on Wednesday.
[PRO] Tesla bull case
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives raised his Tesla price target to $300 from $275, with a bull case of $400 by 2025. This comes after Tesla’s stronger-than-expected second-quarter deliveries. The new price target suggests a potential 30% upside from the current share price.
The bottom line
“Tesla’s AI story could be worth $1 trillion+ and is the most undervalued AI name in our view,” wrote Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, raising his 12-month price target to $300.
Not all analysts agree. Tom Narayan, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, lowered his price target on Elon Musk’s Tesla to $227, 9% below Wednesday’s closing price of $247.56, valuing the EV maker at $785 billion. Over the past three trading sessions, Tesla has gained more than 24%.
“I doubt many investors pushing this up have done the rigorous math I have,” Narayan told CNBC.
Narayan believes Tesla’s second-quarter delivery numbers are being “overanalyzed” and emphasizes the real opportunity lies in autonomy. He highlights the importance of August 8, when Musk will showcase Tesla’s robotaxi, although he cautions that financial returns from robotaxis are still far off.
Despite uncertainty in short-term growth, Narayan sees promise in Tesla: “I do like it,” he said. Narayan considers the release of Full Self-Driving (FSD) version 12 a “breakthrough,” noting Musk’s shift in company strategy towards autonomy. He believes Tesla has an advantage with the largest fleet and extensive autopilot miles, despite competition from Intel‘s Mobileye, GM, and Alphabet‘s Waymo.
“The overall market is in the trillions of dollars. I’m only saying they’re going to get $400 billion of this game-changing market,” Narayan said.
As Tesla and Nvidia powered the S&P and Nasdaq to new records, the Fed’s latest minutes reiterated the need for more evidence to conclude that inflation was ebbing.
Jim Paulsen, author of the “Paulsen Perspectives” newsletter, said the S&P 500’s run to records has been “narrow,” with only a few stocks winning because the Fed has been raising rates, something rarely seen during bull markets.
“[The bull market is] missing a lot of other pieces that could come if the Fed eases, the big one of course being lower bond yields and lower interest rates,” Paulsen told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday. “If the Fed does finally declare victory on inflation, which I think they will, and we cut rates, then I think we’re going to see a lot more stimulus for the stock market, potentially marking the start of a new bull market that we never got.”
— CNBC’s Jeff Cox, Brian Evans, Yun Li, Alex Harring, Hakyung Kim, Spencer Kimball, Leslie Jospehs, Rohan Goswami and Jesse Pound contributed to this report.
