The US is not in a recession, despite the indicator bearing my name saying that it is. The Sahm rule, which was triggered with Friday’s weaker-than-expected jobs report, joins a long list of economic tools skewed by the unusual disruptions of the past four and a half years. That said — and I say this … Read more
Turmoil in the markets has renewed fears that the US did not escape history after all, that a hard landing — a recession — is coming. Whether this is all a blip from a rising yen or a justified reaction to an actual weakening of the US economy is still unknowable. But there are reasons … Read more
Fiscal conservatism has more or less vanished from America’s political landscape. Government borrowing, despite the strong economy, continues to push public debt to record levels – and the presidential contenders and their parties say scarcely a word about it. To the extent they discuss economic policy at all, their intentions on taxes and public spending … Read more
U.S. inflation rose moderately in March, but that is unlikely to change financial markets’ expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold off cutting interest rates until September. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.3% last month, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Friday. Data for February was unrevised to show … Read more
The nation’s economy slowed last quarter, growing at an annual rate of 1.6 per cent in a sign that the high interest rates may be taking a toll on borrowing and spending. Thursday’s report from the Commerce Department said the gross domestic product – the economy’s total output of goods and services – decelerated from … Read more
Production at U.S. factories increased solidly in March as output at motor vehicle assembly plants and elsewhere rose, suggesting that manufacturing was turning the corner after being constrained by higher borrowing costs. Manufacturing output rose 0.5% last month after an upwardly revised 1.2% rebound in the prior month, the Federal Reserve said on Tuesday. Factory … Read more
