(NewsNation) — When it comes to supporting former President Donald Trump, swing-state voters are divided on the impact of the conservative blueprint known as Project 2025, according to a new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey.
Voters in seven key battleground states were asked if Project 2025 makes them more or less likely to support Trump. Overall, a plurality in all states said it makes no difference or they weren’t familiar with the plan.
However, nearly just as many respondents in each state said the conservative roadmap made them less likely to support the former president.
The survey polled voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Among independents in Arizona, 41% said Project 2025 made them less likely to support Trump, compared to 40% who said it made no difference. In Michigan, 40% of independents said it made no difference, while 39% said less likely.
Wisconsin independents were the most put off by the plan, with 46% saying they were less likely to vote for Trump because of it versus 39% who said it made no difference.
In Georgia and Nevada, 12% of independents said the plan made them more likely to vote for Trump — the highest share across the seven swing states.
Trump has tried to distance himself from the 900-page conservative policy handbook and insists he knows nothing about it. The initiative was spearheaded by The Heritage Foundation and put forward as a wish list for the next Republican president.
The report contains several controversial suggestions to overhaul the federal government, including eliminating the U.S. Department of Education and firing as many as 50,000 federal workers.
Democrats have tried to tie Trump to the plan and used it to campaign, warning voters that it’s his extreme second-term agenda.
Harris, Trump locked in tight race in 7 swing states
The survey also reveals a closely contested 2024 presidential race between Harris and Trump.
The poll shows Harris with slight leads in Georgia, Michigan and Nevada, while Trump holds narrow advantages in Arizona, Wisconsin and North Carolina.
Pennsylvania remains deadlocked.
- Harris leads Trump by 1-3 points in Georgia (49% to 48%), Michigan (50% to 47%) and Nevada (49% to 48%).
- Trump leads by 1-3 points in Wisconsin (49% to 48%), North Carolina (49% to 48%) and Arizona (50% to 47%).
- Pennsylvania is tied at 48% each.
The economy remains the dominant concern across all surveyed states, with immigration, housing affordability and threats to democracy also ranking high in various states.
A majority of voters across all states support eliminating taxes on tips.
Opinions on President Joe Biden’s legacy are mixed, with responses ranging from “outstanding” to “poor” across the states.
Harris leads among independent voters in six of the seven states, with Nevada being the exception.
A significant gender divide persists, with Harris leading among women voters in all states except Arizona.
Younger voters (under 30) strongly favor Harris across all surveyed states.
Key statewide races
The poll also shows Democratic candidates leading in several key Senate and gubernatorial races:
- Arizona Senate: Democrat Ruben Gallego (49%) leads Republican Kari Lake (42%)
- Nevada Senate: Incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen (50%) leads Republican Sam Brown (40%)
- Pennsylvania Senate: Incumbent Democrat Bob Casey (48%) leads Republican Dave McCormick (44%)
- North Carolina Governor: Democrat Josh Stein (47%) leads Republican Mark Robinson (41%)
The survey, conducted between August 26 and 28, 2024, sampled between 720 and 1,168 likely voters in each state.
