Sunny Ways won’t help Trudeau reverse his political decline

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The Trudeau Liberals were offering up a “Sunny Ways” beach towel in exchange for a donation this week. Perhaps they don’t realize that just as summer is coming to an end, so is the tolerance Canadians have for Justin Trudeau and his party.

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The latest poll for Postmedia from Leger shows an 18 point gap between Trudeau’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives.

If an election were held today, 43% say they would vote for the Conservatives, 25% for the Liberals, and 15% for the NDP. There isn’t a region or demographic group where Trudeau’s Liberals are leading.

Poilievre and his team have the support of 47% of men and 40% of women compared to just 22% of men and 27% of women who say they will vote Liberal. Among 18-34 year-olds, a group that often leans towards the NDP or Liberals, 40% say they will vote for the Conservatives compared to 21% who say they will vote Liberal and 21% who say they will vote NDP.

If it weren’t for women over 55, Trudeau’s best performing demographic, and one that he’s still not winning, the Liberals would be sitting closer to 20% voter support.

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Voters are tired of the Trudeau government and the offer of a “Sunny Ways” beach towel isn’t going to change that. Leger asked Canadians their level of satisfaction with the Trudeau government and found just 4% said they are very satisfied while 40% said they are very dissatisfied.

Trudeau returned to work this past week looking like a leader in fighting form. He’s energized and looking to take on Pierre Poilievre. It’s why I wrote that it would be foolish for the Conservatives to take Trudeau and the next election for granted.

He spent the week doing campaign like events in Halifax, popping into Winnipeg to visit seniors and Premier Wab Kinew before meeting up with steelworkers in Sault Ste. Marie. Trudeau is acting like a man on a mission, a man who hasn’t seen the polls show a double-digit deficit — or if he has is choosing to ignore them.

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It doesn’t look like voters will be getting a chance to express themselves at the ballot box before October 2025. Despite Jagmeet Singh huffing and puffing about how bad the Trudeau government is for Canada, he continues to prop them up, a move that has not helped him or his party at the polls.

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There will be two by-elections, though, where voters can express themselves — and the Liberals could lose both of them.

In Elmwood-Transcona, a riding in the northeastern part of Winnipeg, it will be a battle between the Conservatives and the NDP. The riding was held by Daniel Blaikie of the NDP from 2015 until he stepped down earlier this year to work for the new NDP provincial government.

The Conservatives, who held the riding from 2011-2015, have nominated Colin Reynolds, an electrician and member of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers. The NDP, who want to hold one of their traditional seats, have nominated Leila Dance, the executive director of the local business improvement association.

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The Liberals have no chance in Elmwood-Transcona but in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, a Montreal riding that recently was held by cabinet minister David Lametti, the Liberals are nervous.

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The NDP has nominated Craig Sauvé, a local city councillor who could very much take this seat, once held by Paul Martin. The Liberals have nominated a local borough councillor to go up against Sauvé but this week the campaign ran into trouble with some bad headlines.

A letter, signed by more than 50 Liberal political staffers, was sent to Trudeau saying they would not work on the by-election until the party’s policy on Israel and Gaza changed. In normal times, that would be a firing offence, taking a public stand against the party and then leaking it to the media.

These aren’t normal times for the Trudeau Liberals, these are not the days of “Sunny Ways.”

Seems everyone has figured that out except Trudeau himself.

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