Rwanda bill UK: Rishi Sunak warned of election wipeout ahead of crunch vote

The Office for National Statistics said the rate of Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation rose to 4 per cent in December, up from 3.9 per cent in November. It is the first increase since last February, and is fuelled by rises in tobacco and alcohol prices, according to official figures.

Inflation “never falls in a straight line,” the chancellor added, referencing rises in the US, France, and Germany.

In his latest column, our chief political commentator John Rentoul writes:

The Conservative Party is close to giving up. Tuesday’s infighting seems to be about the finer legal details of the government’s plan to remove asylum seekers to Rwanda – but it is really about how a group of people faces defeat.

In order to understand the debates and votes in the Commons on Tuesday and Wednesday we need to look to sports psychology rather than to parliamentary procedure. This is about how a team that has fallen far behind comes to terms with the growing certainty of losing.

In sport, players have two main ways of dealing with adversity. One is to urge each other to try to secure a heroic comeback against the odds. The other is for them to turn on each other and blame someone, usually the goalkeeper, for the fact that they are losing.

On Monday, Isaac Levido, the Australian consultant who is in charge of the Conservative election campaign, pleaded with the dressing room, otherwise known as the 1922 Committee. “Let me be clear,” he said. “⁠Divided parties fail. It’s time to get serious – I am fighting to win this election, and I wouldn’t be here if I didn’t believe it was possible.”

But Levido’s appeal was in effect an admission that the party had already decided to go down the blame-each-other route.

Only half a dozen Tory MPs have so far openly said they are prepared to vote against Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda bill at the crucial third reading stage this evening.

New Conservatives’ co-founder Danny Kruger and Miriam Cates have said they are considering voting against the bill, along with right-winger Marco Longhi.

Ex-immigration minister Robert Jenrick joined his old colleague Suella Braverman in saying he was “prepared” to vote against the government. And ex-minister Simon Clarke said he wasn’t “f***ing around” as he vowed to vote against the bill if it was unamended.

But around 60 Tory MPs voted for rebel amendments last night – the biggest rebellion of Mr Sunak’s premiership. Defiant rebels have told The Independent that it remains possible that around half of those MPs could vote against the bill tonight – around 30 MPs – which would be enough to defeat the government.

Most at Westminster still expect Mr Sunak to squeeze home. The Telegraph reported that at least 15 Conservatives could vote against the bill, while The Mail said Tory whips are expecting the rebellion to be around 12 rebel MPs.

Peter Bone’s partner has said she is “proud” to have the former Tory MP on the campaign trail with her after he was booted out of parliament for sexually abusing a member of staff.

Helen Harrison, who is standing in the by-election to replace Mr Bone, also said the panel which found him to have exposed himself to an aide and physically struck him had “got it wrong”.

Our political correspondent Archie Mitchell reports:

Deportation flights to Rwanda must take off regularly or the public will view the scheme as a “gimmick”, Tory MP Jonathan Gullis – who is considering rebelling – has said.

Gullis told LBC: “What we need to do is have it as a sustainable deterrent. That means having regular flights with lots of people on board, otherwise people will just see it as a gimmick, the voters will see it as a gimmick.

He added: “We will have tried a third piece of legislation in three years and, if it fails, it will be three strikes and you’re out.”

Illegal migration minister Michael Tomlinson confirmed the government is considering tweaking the Civil Service code to remind officials to follow ministerial decisions, amid concerns by Tory rebels that the Rwanda legislation fails to go far enough to block last-minute injunctions from the European Court of Human Rights.

The minister did not spell out the exact details, but told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “We are looking at that. What happens at the moment is that civil servants advise, ministers decide, and then our excellent civil servants go on and effect and carry out those policies.

“But, yes, we are looking to see what can be done to strengthen and reassure.

“But in the legislation itself, it says that it will be for a minister to make these decisions, not for a court or not for the judges, and the Prime Minister has been crystal clear that he will not let a foreign court get in the way of this Rwanda policy.

“So the legislation is clear, the Prime Minister is clear, and I am clear, and we’ll hear the details of that during the course of the debate this afternoon.”

Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg has warned Rishi Sunak that his vote on the Rwanda bill depends on a guarantee that ECHR rulings can be ignored.

The former Tory minister said he “will decide before the vote comes” and said it depends on the UK being able to ignore orders under the court’s Rule 39 – which would allow Rwanda flights to be grounded where there is a “real risk of serious and irreversible harm” to individuals.

Speaking to Times Radio, Sir Jacob said: “We’ll have to wait and see … The truth is, I haven’t decided. But I will decide before the vote comes. But I want the government to succeed. I want this policy to succeed. It’s about helping the government have a policy that will be successful.”

Asked what would help him decide, he added: “Will the Attorney General basically agree that a Rule 39 order can be overruled? If that’s the government’s position, that’s really important.”

Rishi Sunak faces his biggest personal crisis as Prime Minister in the House of Commons tonight as he bids to save his flagship Rwanda policy.

A group of 60 Right wing Tory MPs, backed by former Conservative leader and Prime Minister Boris Johnson, are threatening to vote down the Rwanda legislation, claiming it is not tough enough.

If 33 of the rebels carry out their threat, Sunak will be defeated – with devastating consequences.

Our political correspondent Zoe Grunewald has the full report:

Jacob Rees-Mogg has urged Rishi Sunak to back the Tory rebels seeking to tighten the Rwanda bill in order to “prevent the predicted election wipeout”.

The ex-minister told GB News: “If the Tory Party followed the rebels, it would begin to restore its popularity by being Conservative.

“If the Prime Minister gets this Bill right and we see flights taking off before the next election, we could just possibly see a revival of Tory support that could prevent the predicted election wipeout.

“It would show a government that listens to and shares the concerns of the British people. Particularly on this issue, because I do feel that the politicians are so out of touch with the British electorate.”