Russia Ukraine war: Putin’s forces eye new battlefield gains after fall of Avdiivka as coke plant seized

Dwindling ammunition threatens Ukraine’s hold on the 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) front line under withering assault by Russian artillery. Defensive lines are in jeopardy.

Ukrainian forces withdrew from the city of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region after daily Russian onslaughts from three directions for the last four months.

Dwindling supplies of Western-supplied long-range artillery in particular means Ukrainian forces are inhibited from striking high-value targets deep behind Russian lines, where heavy equipment and personnel are accumulated.

For weeks, Ukrainian forces across the frontline have complained about critical shortages in ammunition, with some artillery batteries fighting with only 10 per cent of supply they need. Desperate to economise shells, military leaders ordered units to fire at only precise targets. But commanders on the ground say this is barely enough to restrain their better supplied enemy.

Concerns are growing that without military aid the fall of Avdiivka may be repeated in other parts of the frontline.

Addressing world leaders, diplomats and military officials gathered at the Munich Security Conference, Mr Zelensky warned that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatened not just Europe but every country, as it was “war against any rules at all”.

When Russia invaded Ukraine in the early hours of 24 February two years ago, nobody knew how it would play out. Here author and Russia expert Mark Galeotti sifts through the carnage of the bloody conflict for clues as to what will happen next:

A dozen commanders in the Ukraine war’s most intense combat zones have spoken out about artillery shortages, an issue which has been present ever since Russia’s invasion two years ago and which is severely hampering Kyiv’s war effort.

The shortage of artillery ammunition grew particularly acute last autumn and in the weeks leading up to the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Avdiivka’s critical coke plant, they say.

For weeks, Ukrainian forces across the frontline have complained about critical shortages in ammunition, with some artillery batteries fighting with only 10 per cent of the supply they need.

Desperate to economise shells, military leaders ordered units to fire at only precise targets. But commanders on the ground say this is barely enough to restrain their better supplied enemy.

Concerns are growing that, without military aid, the fall of Avdiivka may be repeated in other parts of the frontline.

Dwindling supplies of Western-supplied long-range artillery in particular means Ukrainian forces are inhibited from striking high-value targets deep behind Russian lines, where heavy equipment and personnel are accumulated.

Saving lives was the priority says Volodymyr Zelensky, as delays to military aid from the US will only add to pressures on the battlefield, writes Askold Krushelnycky in Kyiv

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Russia says its forces have taken full control of the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant, two days after Ukraine confirmed its withdrawal from the town.

Russia’s defence ministry said yesterday that Ukrainian units were still entrenched at the plant, which is on the northwestern edge of Avdiivka.

The sprawling plant complex was an important industrial asset before the start of the war, and has been the site of intense fighting as both countries battled for control of the strategically-placed town.

Ukrainian forces withdrew from the town on Saturday to protect its remaining soldiers from being encircled, and after daily Russian onslaughts from three directions for the last four months.

Avdiivka has been a frontline city ever since Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014, and the fortified settlement with a maze of trenches and tunnels served to protect important – and less easily defended – logistical hubs further west.

There is a stark generational divide between how the public see the various threats and how they should be dealt with – but the majority agree that the world is a less safe place than five years ago, new polling suggests.

Younger people believe that the war in Gaza should be the top foreign policy priority for the government, while the rest of the population believe that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the most important issue to address.

Two major wars and the death of Russian Putin critic Alexei Navalny hang heavy over the annual gathering, writes Bel Trew.

In remarks delivered from the White House before he departed for an event in Ohio, Mr Biden said he was “not surprised” and “outraged” by reports that Navalny had died.

Poland’s prime minister said on Friday that his country will upgrade the wall on its border with Belarus to better insulate the frontier against unauthorized migration.

Donald Tusk also said that Poland and Finland both see the need for changes in the European Union’s asylum legislation, which he called “inadequate” in the face of the current migration challenges and threats posed by Russia‘s and Belarus’s policies that are pushing unauthorized migration into the EU.