NFL training camps finally get into full swing this week, with veterans from all teams reporting by Wednesday.
In the AFC, major questions hang over several teams: Who will win the starting QB job in Denver and Las Vegas? Are veteran wideouts on the hot seat in Kansas City and New England? Who will emerge as Justin Herbert’s top target with the Chargers?
With all these questions and more in mind, we asked Yardbarker NFL writers to make a bold prediction about every team in the AFC. In addition to a prediction, each writer provides a confidence rating on his take, with “5” being supremely confident and “1” signifying “I’m guessing.”
AFC East
BUFFALO BILLS | WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling starts over Keon Coleman | Confidence rating: 4 | Buffalo spent a second-round pick on Coleman to help offset the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis and eventually take over as the team’s No. 1 wideout. However, as a team with Super Bowl aspirations, the Bills may ease the rookie into the offense, paving the way for the veteran Valdes-Scantling to open the season as a starter on the boundary.
MIAMI DOLPHINS | QB Tua Tagovailoa holds in for new contract | Confidence rating: 3 | After leading the league in passing yards (4,624) last season, Tagovailoa is presumably hoping to become the highest-paid player in the NFL, but there’s still no sign a deal with Miami will materialize before training camp. Rather than holding out entirely, Tagovailoa could opt to hold in and practice in a limited fashion to ensure he’ll get his long-awaited contract extension ASAP.
NEW YORK JETS | Team signs safety Justin Simmons | Confidence rating: 3 | On paper, the Jets have one of the top three defenses in the NFL, though their safety room, which includes Chuck Clark, Tony Adams and Ashtyn Davis, is underwhelming. By restructuring a few contracts, New York could create enough cap space to sign Simmons, a two-time Pro Bowler and the best free agent on the market, to put its defense over the top.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS | Team cuts WR JuJu Smith-Schuster | Confidence scale: 4 | Smith-Schuster, who joined the Patriots on a three-year deal last offseason, was a disaster in 2023, catching 29 passes for 260 yards and one touchdown. The disappointing production prompted New England to invest high draft capital in WRs Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker, and should the rookies excel in training camp, it wouldn’t be surprising if Smith-Schuster became a cap casualty. — Colum Dell
AFC West
DENVER BRONCOS | Rookie QB Bo Nix wins starting job | Confidence rating: 4 | On a recent episode of “The Insiders,” NFL Media’s Omar Ruiz said Nix has earned “rave reviews” during the offseason. Considering he has made a strong impression, the 12th overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft should beat out Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson, who provide less upside.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS | Chiefs release WR Kadarius Toney | Confidence rating: 3 | Unsurprisingly, the Chiefs declined Toney’s fifth-year option after he had one TD catch and five drops in 13 games last season. In April, Chiefs GM Brett Veach said the team still believes in Toney, but that’s hard to believe after K.C. signed free-agent WR Marquise Brown (one year, $7M) and drafted Texas WR Xavier Worthy (pick No. 28).
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS | QB Aidan O’Connell beats out Gardner Minshew II | Confidence rating: 3 | The Raiders signed Minshew II to a two-year, $25M deal in free agency, but O’Connell’s relationship with star WR Davante Adams gives him an upper hand. During a recent episode of Shannon Sharpe’s podcast, Adams said he is a “big advocate” for the 25-year-old O’Connell, who played well during OTAs.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS | Rookie WR Ladd McConkey emerges as top target | Confidence rating: 2 | During mandatory minicamp, QB Justin Herbert said McConkey looked like a veteran, and he “can’t wait to get him the ball.” Though Herbert likes McConkey, the 34th overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft must erase doubts about his size (6-foot, 185 pounds) to prove he’s a legit No. 1 wideout. — Clark Dalton
AFC North
BALTIMORE RAVENS | Rookie CB Nate Wiggins earns starting job | Confidence rating: 3 | The Ravens overhauled their cornerback room this offseason after injuries hurt the group in 2023. One of the additions who could have an instant impact is Wiggins, who general manager Eric DeCosta believes was “the best cover corner in the draft.”
CINCINNATI BENGALS | WR Ja’Marr Chase signs massive contract extension | Confidence rating: 4 | Chase said earlier this offseason that he wanted to wait for his former LSU teammate, Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson, to sign a new deal before signing one of his own. Now that that business is done, the Bengals’ focus should be on giving him a well-deserved payday after amassing 268 catches for 3,717 yards and 29 touchdown catches since entering the league as the No. 5 overall pick in 2021.
CLEVELAND BROWNS | RB Nick Chubb remains sidelined | Confidence rating: 2 | Chubb is coming off a torn MCL and a damaged ACL to the same knee he injured in 2015, leaving his status for the start of the season in doubt. A recent workout video of Chubb supports the idea he’ll return to his dominant form — four straight 1,000-rushing-yard seasons from 2019-22 — but the Browns shouldn’t rush him back until he’s fully healthy.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS | Team trades for No. 2 wide receiver | Confidence rating: 3 | The Steelers have been named a team to watch in the wide receiver trade market since trading WR Diontae Johnson to the Carolina Panthers in March, but their options have all but dried up. Pittsburgh will likely strike if that changes. In camp, veterans Van Jefferson, Quez Watkins and Calvin Austin III are vying for the No. 2 spot opposite George Pickens. — Aaron Becker
AFC South
HOUSTON TEXANS | Rookie CB Kamari Lassiter will start | Confidence rating: 4 | After finishing 23rd in the NFL against the pass in 2023, the Texans beefed up their secondary, adding veteran cornerbacks C.J. Henderson and Jeff Okudah via free agency this offseason. However, Lassiter has already shown off his impressive skills during minicamp, even against Pro Bowl wideout Stefon Diggs, and it’d be a shock if he didn’t earn the starting role outside opposite Derek Stingley Jr.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS | Team will finally sign a veteran safety | Confidence rating: 3 | At free safety, the Colts seem content for now to go with Rodney Thomas, graded 78th in 2023, per Pro Football Focus, and Nick Cross, who has only four career starts. But after months of speculation, GM Chris Ballard will finally listen to reason and add a veteran to the mix in Justin Simmons, who is coming off a Pro Bowl season and could provide a boost at a position of need.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS | Veteran Ronald Darby won’t start | Confidence rating: 3 | With an outside corner needed to pair up with Tyson Campbell, the Jaguars signed Darby, a nine-year vet, during the offseason. However, 2024 third-round pick Jarrian Jones is poised to give him a push after displaying shutdown ability while at Florida State, finishing sixth in the ACC in interceptions (three) despite being targeted only 36 times last season.
TENNESSEE TITANS | WR Treylon Burks will bounce back | Confidence rating: 2 | Only two seasons into his NFL career, the former first-round pick is already being called a bust after posting just 49 receptions for 665 yards and a touchdown in 22 games. Nevertheless, the pressure may be lifted a bit this season by the presence of veterans DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, which could finally allow Burks to begin to realize his potential. — Mike Santa Barbara
