NFL Week 17 Picks: Belichick gives Bills scare, Purdy redeems himself

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BEST BETS

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (4-11) at BUFFALO BILLS (9-6)

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LINE: Buffalo by 13

CHEWABLE: There are multiple reasons to be nervous about taking the Bills. First, they laid a dozen points against the Chargers last Saturday and won by two, and three of their last four games have been decided by a field goal or less while only two of their last 11 have been decided by more than one score … The Patriots have won two of their last three, starting with a 21-18 victory in Pittsburgh that threw a wrench into the Steelers’ playoff plans. They did a similar number on the Broncos in Denver with a 26-23 victory that left the home team clinging to an 8% playoff probability and effectively ended Russell Wilson’s time in Colorado … Only one of New England’s last five losses have been by more than one score, and let us not forget that the Patriots also beat the Bills 29-25 in Week 7, with Mac Jones throwing for 272 yards … Bills have an 87% playoff probability but have to be looking at bigger things, such as the AFC East title, which they will play for next week if they beat the Patriots and the Dolphins lose in Baltimore … The Patriots defence is second-best against the run, and only seven teams have allowed more total yards of offence … This could be the last time we see Bill Belichick coach the Patriots against the Bills. Since taking over in New England, he has beaten Buffalo 37 of 45 times. I’m not saying he’s going to do it again, but I can’t see him not giving western New York at least one more scare.

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TAKING: NEW ENGLAND +13

SCORE (O/U 40.5): Bills 21, Patriots 17

LOS ANGELES RAMS (8-7) at NEW YORK GIANTS (5-10)

LINE: L.A. Rams by 5.5

CHEWABLE: Wouldn’t a significant percentage of bettors back the visitors here if the spread was two unconverted TDs instead of one? Rams are looking like a contender with stellar play on both sides of the ball, while the Giants have nothing on the line and are taking another nose dive … Stunning upsets occur in this scenario regularly, and it’s conceivable that veteran QB Tyrod Taylor could turn in an heroic performance for the Giants. But the Rams are a veteran team that won the Super Bowl a couple of years ago and, still at just a 67% playoff probability, are unlikely to make the mistake of taking any opponent lightly. They are also 9-5-1 ATS and are 2-0-0 as a visiting favourite.

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TAKING: L.A. RAMS -5.5

SCORE (O/U 44.5): Rams 30, Giants 17

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (11-4) at WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (4-11)

LINE: San Francisco by 12.5

CHEWABLE: The Commanders are in the unenviable position of facing the NFL’s best all-round team a week after it was embarrassed in a 14-point loss to the NFL’s second-best all-round team. Anxious for redemption has to be Brock Purdy, whose four interceptions led to the 49ers’ loss to Baltimore and also might cost him the MVP award. Purdy now faces the Commanders, who rankings show have the second-worst pass defence in the league and give up more yardage to wide receivers than any team. They also give up a lot of receiving yardage to RBs coming out of the backfield. So yeah, big days for Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey  … Jacoby Brissett will start at quarterback for the Commanders after completing 18 of 23 pass attempts for 224 yards and three TDs in relief of Sam Howell the last two games. The Niners might have broken the career record for most sacks by one team in a game (14, set by the 1952 Eagles versus Giants) had Washington gone back to Howell, who has been sacked a league-leading 60 times … At just 8-7-0 ATS, the Niners have broken some hearts, but the Commanders have lost six in a row and given up at least 28 points in each.

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TAKING: SAN FRANCISCO -12.5

SCORE (O/U 49): Niners 43, Commanders 14

THE REST

DETROIT LIONS (11-4) at DALLAS COWBOYS (10-5)

LINE: Dallas by 5.5

CHEWABLE: They were dancin’ in the streets of Motown when the Lions clinched the division title for the first time in 30 years with last week’s win over the Vikings. While Detroit still has a shot at No. 1 seed, the Cowboys will be more desperate for a victory after dropping their last two games, and with top spot in the NFC East up for grabs they have to be extremely confident as they return to the comforts of home. The Cowboys are 7-0 at AT&T Stadium, where they have averaged almost 40 points a game while outscoring opponents 279-108 … Only three teams have allowed more rushing yards than the Lions, but injuries in their secondary have left Detroit vulnerable to aerial attacks. Wringing his big mitts is Dak Prescott, who has 20 TD passes against just two picks at home, and whose career record against the Lions is 4-0, with nine TD passes and no interceptions … The Cowboys have won the last five meetings and haven’t lost a home game to the Lions in 12 years … With the way I’m leaning, there’s concern that Dan Campbell is 16-4 ATS when an underdog of 4-plus points. Ok, I’m over it.

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TAKING: DALLAS -5.5

SCORE (O/U 53.5): Cowboys 34, Lions 28

MIAMI DOLPHINS (11-4) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (12-3)

LINE: Baltimore by 3.5

CHEWABLE: The Dolphins have the NFL’s highest-scoring offence and, with last week’s walk-off field goal against Dallas, are coming off their first victory against an opponent with a winning record. The Ravens have the league’s stingiest defence, which has held opponents to a league-low 16.3 points per game, and absolutely dominated the powerful Niners 33-19 last Monday. As the teams battle for top seed in the AFC, I’m remembering their meeting in Week 2 at M&T Bank Stadium last season, when the Dolphins rallied from a 35-14 deficit with a little over 12 minutes left to win 42-38. The Ravens didn’t have an answer for Tyreek Hill, who had 11 catches for 190 yards and two fourth-quarter TDs, and I’m not sure it’s any different now … Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (ankle) is unlikely to play … The Ravens could have an emotional sag after such a loud statement last week. Of note: Lamar Jackson is 9-19 ATS as a favourite of more than three points, and Ravens are just 4-3 ATS at home.

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TAKING: MIAMI +3.5

SCORE (O/U 47): Ravens 24, Dolphins 23

ATLANTA FALCONS (7-8) at CHICAGO BEARS (6-9)

LINE: Chicago by 3

CHEWABLE: The hot-and-cold Falcons are impressive when they can run the ball like they did in a 29-10 victory over the Colts last week, which saw them pound the ground 30 times for 177 yards. But the Colts’ ‘D’ is 28th against the run, while the Bears are first, allowing 80.7 ground yards per game … The Bears have won four of their last six, with the two losses coming in late-game collapses against the Lions and Browns. They could have trouble with Atlanta’s defence, which, if you take out the 29-25 loss to Tampa Bay in Week 14, has surrendered an average of nine points per game over the other three of their last four … The Falcons have also surrendered the sixth-most rushing yardage to opposing quarterbacks and Justin Fields, who was born just outside of Atlanta, should wipe out the 10% playoff probability to which his hometown team is clinging … The Bears have covered five straight weeks.

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TAKING: CHICAGO -3

SCORE (O/U 37.5): Bears 26, Falcons 20

TENNESSEE TITANS (5-10) at HOUSTON TEXANS (8-7)

LINE: Houston by 5.5

CHEWABLE: The return of QB C.J. Stroud (concussion) would be huge for the Texans, as both teams struggle defending the pass and the rookie is obviously more deadly heaving the pigskin than Case Keenum. That said, Keenum led the Texans to a 19-16 OT win in Nashville two weeks ago, one of three, three-point losses (along with a victory over the Dolphins) Tennessee has suffered in the last four games … Among their last three games, the Texans have been blown out by the Jets and the Browns … Still a heavy favourite to be named rookie of the year, Stroud has completed just 60% of his passes while throwing only three TD passes in his last three starts … The Texans are 6-3-0 ATS but 1-5-0 as a favourite … Tennessee coach Mike Vrabel is 25-13 ATS as an underdog of 3+ points … The Titans will also have their rookie QB (Will Smith) returning from injury and are capable of playing the spoiler role.

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TAKING: TENNESSEE +5.5

SCORE (O/U 43.5): Texans 23, Titans 21

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (7-8) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (8-7)

LINE: Indianapolis by 3.5

CHEWABLE: The interim tag should come off Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce, and not just because the Raiders are 4-3 since he took over from Josh McDaniel, or because opponents are averaging just 15.3 points against Las Vegas in those seven games, whereas they were giving up 23.4 points per in their first eight. The biggest reason the Raiders should go into next season with Pierce is that he led them to a 20-14 victory in Kansas City last week with his quarterback, Aidan O’Connell, connecting on only nine of 21 pass attempts for 62 yards while not completing a single pass after the first quarter. After beating Patrick Mahomes, Pierce should be able to take care of Gardner Minshew … The Colts’ playoff probability is 53%, but it feels like they blew their chance when they folded last week against Atlanta.

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TAKING: LAS VEGAS +3.5

SCORE (O/U 44.5): Raiders 21, Colts 20

CAROLINA PANTHERS (2-13) at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (8-7)

LINE: Jacksonville by 6.5

CHEWABLE: The Panthers are coming off their best offensive game of the season in a 33-30 loss to the Packers — scoring 20 points in the second half alone — while Bryce Young actually resembled a NFL quarterback, completing 23 of 36 pass attempts while going over 300 yards for the first time … The Jaguars have turned a corner too, only they’re headed the wrong way. While it once looked like they were going to run and hide from the rest of the AFC South, they have now lost four straight. Heading into their biggest game of the season, they have signed and activated Matt Barkley as insurance if No. 1 QB Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) can’t go. The Jaguars are his 11th team in the last 10 seasons … If Lawrence does play, it’s not like the Jags are sitting pretty. He has thrown five picks in his last three games and led Jacksonville to 19 points in the last two … Now would be a good time to remind you that the Panthers’ pass defence ranks fourth, while the Jaguars’ pass defence is 29th.

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TAKING: CAROLINA +6.5

SCORE (O/U 38): Panthers 23, Jaguars 21

ARIZONA CARDINALS (3-12) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (11-4)

LINE: Philadelphia by 10.5

CHEWABLE: Too many points to lay on an Eagles team that lost three straight, then hung on to win 33-25 against the Giants, who outscored them 22-13 in the second half. Philadelphia does have a powerful offence and the Cardinals have a putrid defence, but Kyler Murray will put up some points against a defence that ranks 27th against the pass … The Cardinals are 7-8-0 ATS while the Eagles are 7-6-2 ATS  … Justin Fields had nine carries for 97 yards against Arizona last week. Jalen Hurts can do something similar if he’s not too busy burning Cards corners with DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown … D’Andre Swift had 20 carries for 92 yards and a TD against the Giants on Christmas Day and should have great success against the worst run defence in the NFL.

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TAKING: ARIZONA +10.5

SCORE (O/U 48): Eagles 30, Cardinals 21

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (7-8) at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (8-7)

LINE: Tampa Bay by 2.5

CHEWABLE: Baker Mayfield has the third-shortest odds to win Comeback Player of the Year Award after guiding the Bucs to four straight wins — throwing eight TD passes against no picks in the last three — and situating Tampa Bay as the heavy favourite to win the NFC South … Even though the Bucs are just 3-4 ATS at home, they have covered in seven of their last 10 and are tied for the best overall ATS record in the league at 10-5 … The Saints are 4-10-1 ATS and haven’t covered on the road since Week 5, and the combined record of the teams they’ve defeated this season is 30-60 … The Bucs defeated the Saints 26-9 in Week 4, allowing Derek Carr 127 passing yards while completing 23-of-37 for a paltry 3.4 average … After a 30-22 loss to the Rams last Thursday, the Saints’ playoff probability is slim (12%) to none, and Slim is about to leave town.

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TAKING: TAMPA BAY -2.5

SCORE (O/U 42.5): Bucs 27, Saints 23

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (8-7) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (8-7)

LINE: Seattle by 3.5

CHEWABLE: Mason Rudolph had the Steelers offence looking better than it has in a long time when, in his first start of the season, he threw for 290 yards and two TDs in an unexpected flattening of the Bengals last week … The Steelers just have to win one of their remaining two games to ensure Mike Tomlin 17th straight season without a losing record, but more importantly, winning both, including next week’s visit to Baltimore, their chances of making the playoffs go from the 17% they’re at now to 92% … The Seahawks are coming off back-to-back 20-17 wins over the Eagles and Titans to boost their playoff probability to 69% … Since their bye, the Seahawks are 5-6. Of the five wins, only one was by more than four points … The Steelers defence boasts more big playmakers, but neither team puts up enough resistance. Against the run, the Steelers rank 20th and the Seahawks are 27th. Against the pass, the Seahawks are 19th and the Steelers are 21st … From a betting standpoint, the hook is too enticing to pass.

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TAKING: PITTSBURGH +3.5

SCORE (O/U 41): Seahawks 30, Steelers 28

CINCINNATI BENGALS (8-7) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (9-6)

LINE: Kansas City by 7

CHEWABLE: The defending champs are sliding off their throne. The Chiefs’ loss to the Raiders last week represented one of their worst offensive outings of the Patrick Mahomes era. It was also their third in four games and fourth in their last six. Along with all the frustration they’re showing, it looks now like they have zero chance of repeating … The Bengals’ playoff probability is down to 23% after last week’s face plant in Pittsburgh, which came on the heels of victories over the Jaguars, Colts and Vikings. It bounces up to 59% with a victory in K.C, where they have won and lost by three points in their last two visits … The Chiefs likely will be without their best offensive player, Isiah Pacheco, who now has a concussion to go along with his shoulder injury. The Bengals are expecting the return of their best, Ja’Marr Chase, who was back at practice this week after missing one game with a shoulder injury … The Chiefs are 3-4 ATS at home, and while they can rally the troops and win outright, this spread is way too big.

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TAKING: CINCINNATI +7

SCORE (O/U 44.5): Chiefs 24, Bengals 21

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (5-10) at DENVER BRONCOS (7-8)

LINE: Denver by 3.5

CHEWABLE: Clinging to their playoff hopes by a wee (8%) thread after a loss to the Patriots last week, the Broncos prompted this line to drop two full points when they benched Russell Wilson. How can Denver be better off with Jarrett Stidham, a fourth-round pick in 2019 who is 0-2 in career starts, over a Super Bowl winner, unless players are happy with the move and rally around the backup … The Broncos are 1-3 since a five-game winning streak erased their horrid start, with that victory being a 24-7 beating of the Chargers … Looking inspired under interim head coach Giff Smith, the Chargers would have upset the Bills last week had Buffalo’s Gabe Davis not played his best game of the season. The Chargers’ new quarterback, Easton Stick, showed flashes of promise … The Chargers could also having Joey Bosa return from a foot injury, a development that could make things difficult for an unexperienced QB who already will be worrying about Khalil Mack … With all their injuries, the Chargers don’t have the offensive talent of their opponents. The Broncos should win their last home game of the season, but it will be a close one.

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TAKING: L.A. CHARGERS +3.5

SCORE (O/U 37.5): Broncos 21, Chargers 20

GREEN BAY PACKERS (7-8) at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (7-8)

LINE: Minnesota by 2

CHEWABLE: Interesting finale to Week 17 has the Vikings going back to Jaren Hall — who will be making his second career start after Nick Mullens threw six interceptions in his two spins at the wheel — while they go forward the rest of the season without TE T.J. Hockenson (ACL/MCL) and edge rusher D.J. Wonnum (quad) … The Packers have a 26% playoff probability and have benched standout CB Jaire Alexander … The Packers are 3-5 ATS on the road, while the Vikings are 2-5 ATS at home, but I’m going with the home team anyway. Brian Flores oversees one of the top blitzing defences in the league, and the Packers’ season hit a huge bump in the road when Jordan Love couldn’t handle blitzing the Giants did in a critical Week 14 loss. Also because the Packers are so bad defensively, especially against the run, and Ty Chandler could be in for another triple-digit rushing day.

TAKING: MINNESOTA -2

SCORE (O/U 46.5): Vikings 20, Packers 17

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