Report: Israel believes more than a fifth of remaining Hamas hostages are dead
The New York Times is reporting that at least 32 of the 136 remaining Israeli hostages captured by Hamas are dead, according to an internal assessment conducted by the Israeli military.
The figure amounts to more than a fifth of the remaining hostages behind held by Hamas.
Key events
The New York Times reports that there is unconfirmed intelligence indicating that at least 20 other hostages may also be dead, according to four military officials who spoke to the newspaper.
The fate of the hostages captured by Hamas has been a deeply emotional issue in Israel and there has been fierce political debates in the country about how to deal with the situation.
Potential deals to free some of those captured are seemingly at odds with the views of key allies of president Benjamin Netanyahu, whom he relies on to prop up his government in the Knesset.
Our international security correspondent, Jason Burke, last month outlined the political dilemma’s Netanyahu faced regarding the hostages:
Netanyahu could gain a boost in the polls – albeit potentially a short-term one – if he agreed a deal with Hamas that freed the hostages, analysts suggest. But even agreeing a short pause to the offensive in Gaza could lose Netanyahu the support of the far-right politicians who are important to his coalition government. This would not end his rule, but would seriously undermine it.
There are multiple scenarios for what plays out over coming months. Many lead to the 74-year-old veteran leaving office.
Some analysts think early elections are likely. Others say no politician would risk a wartime poll but admit the parliamentary maths of a successful no-confidence vote does not currently add up. Netanyahu’s opposition is hopelessly divided too. Even if elections were called tomorrow, it could take six months before a new government formed.
“[Netanyahu’s ouster] is not inevitable and definitely not immediate. He is in a different league from anyone else in the current political scene and he thrives on pressure,” said one political insider.
Israeli public opinion is fragmented, however. Protesters, including demobilised veterans of the fighting in Gaza, are calling for firmer commitment to the offensive, which has killed 25,000 Palestinians in the territory, mostly women and children. Hostages’ families have differing views too.
“Netanyahu’s decision is to not make a decision and to drag things out in the hope something will turn up,” said Mairav Zonszein, an Israel analyst at the International Crisis Group. “There is still a consensus that the war is justified but increasingly people want someone else at the wheel and think that Netanyahu has to go, not at some unclear later date but now.”
What we know about the hostages so far:
-
During the 7 October attacks carried out by Hamas, about 250 people were taken hostage from Israel.
-
Just over half were Israeli citizens and the remaining were foreign nationals.
-
Both IDF soldiers and civilians were taken hostage, though the number of each is unknown.
-
110 hostages have been released so far, 105 in a prisoner exchange deal with Hamas last November.
-
In December, the IDF admitted to killing three Israeli hostages who were topless and held white flags, in an attempt to show they were not armed. The incident caused domestic disquiet in Israel.
Report: Israel believes more than a fifth of remaining Hamas hostages are dead
The New York Times is reporting that at least 32 of the 136 remaining Israeli hostages captured by Hamas are dead, according to an internal assessment conducted by the Israeli military.
The figure amounts to more than a fifth of the remaining hostages behind held by Hamas.
The leader of Yemen’s Houthis, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, said on Tuesday that the group “will further escalate” if the Israeli attack on Gaza does not stop, Reuters reports.
The Houthis have been targeting commercial vessels with drones and missiles in the Red Sea since mid-November, in what they describe as acts of solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza.
UK lawmakers told strikes on Houthis will be counter-productive
Patrick Wintour
Patrick Wintour is the Guardian’s diplomatic editor
Three prominent British-based experts on Yemen have told the UK foreign affairs select committee that UK-US strikes on Houthi positions in Yemen will be counter-productive, build Houthi support and not deter the Houthis from mounting further attacks.
None of the trio of experts are sympathetic to the Houthis, but they all said they believed the attacks were, as the Houthis insisted, largely designed to show solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, a claim that British ministers repeatedly reject as Houthi propaganda that British MPs should not swallow.
They also warned to different degrees that Britain was weakening its standing internationally by being the only other country apart from the US prepared to take offensive military action against the Houthis. The assessment appeared to shock some MPs on the all party select committee.
Helen Lackner, former Visiting Fellow, European Council for Foreign Relations and author of Yemen in Crisis said “The airstrikes are incredibly counterproductive from every possible point of view that you might be able to imagine. The Houthis are largely unpopular for the millions who are living under their rule. The impact of [the airstrikes] has been to improve their popularity by a million per cent. Their popularity has risen”.
Dr Elisabeth Kendall, Mistress, Girton College, University of Cambridge, said she understood the motives behind the airstrikes but added “It is counterproductive, because it increases Houthi popularity at a time when the Houthis needed to increase their popularity”.
Farea Al-Muslimi, a research fellow at the Chatham House Middle East programme said “I have seen too many countries operating under the illusion that they can bomb the hell out of something or someone in Yemen. I have seen it with the US drone strikes, with the Saudis and, most recently, with the UK and the US.”
Lackner insisted “Houthi support for Palestinians in Israel is a genuine ideological position; it is probably their only really genuine one”. She added “End the war in Gaza, and the Houthis will stop”.
Kendall also warned the UK risks losing “very valuable allies in the region, such as Oman, which we really must keep on side if we are ever to get a lid on the Yemen problem more generally. We also feed into narratives of Russia or China of the UK as world police interfering with sovereignty”.
Haaretz reports that Argentina’s president Javier Milei was greeted on arrival in Israel by foreign minister Yisrael Katz, and announced his intention to move the Argentinian embassy to Jerusalem. The embassy is presently located in Tel Aviv.
The Royal Navy has said that HMS Richmond has taken over responsibility for the UK’s contribution to protecting shipping in Red Sea. PA Media reports the Type 23 frigate replaces HMS Diamond, which has come under fire from Iran-backed Houthi forces on three occasions during its time on duty in the region.
Argentina’s recently elected president Javier Milei has arrived in Israel for a visit.
Vessel and crew safe after Greek-owned bulk carrier targeted southwest of Aden
Private security firm Ambrey said that a Marshall Islands-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carrier was targeted while heading through the Maritime Security Transit Corridor southbound about 53 nautical miles southwest of Aden. The vessel was travelling from the US to India.
The vessel and crew were safe, both Ambrey and UKMTO, who earlier reported the incident, said.
Lebanon’s foreign minister Abdallah Bou Habib summoned the British ambassador and handed him a note of protest regarding British foreign minister David Cameron’s visit to Beirut, the Lebanese state news agency (NNA) said on Tuesday.
There were no further details on the reason for the note of protest.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency said on Tuesday it had received a report of an incident 50 nautical miles south of Yemen’s Aden, Reuters reports.
UKMTO added that authorities were investigating the incident and no further details were provided.
Here are some images from a tent camp in Rafa, southern Gaza taken on Tuesday. Many of those living here fled their homes due to Israeli strikes.
Antony Blinken in Egypt for talks on Israel-Gaza war
US secretary of state Antony Blinken has landed in Egypt. He met with Egyptian president Abdel Fattah Al-Sissi and US ambassador to the country Herro Mustafa Garg.
UNRWA expects report into Israeli claims staff were involved in 7 October attack to be ready early next month
The UN agency for Palestinian refugees expects its preliminary report into Israeli claims that a dozen of its employees took part in the 7 October attack on Israel to be ready by early next month, its representative in Lebanon said on Tuesday.
Dorothee Klaus told reporters in Lebanon that the agency expects donors who suspended their funding after the claims emerged to review their decisions based on the probe. The US and UK were among those who pulled funding for the agency after Isreal’s claims.
Channel 4 News obtained Isreal’s dossier outlining the claims that UNRWA staff were involved in the October Hamas attacks but concluded it ”provides no evidence” to support them.
