Yes Securities sees LIC’s APE at Rs 12,705 crore for the April-June quarter which could go up by 33% on a YoY basis while registering a likely decline of 40% on the quarter-on-quarter basis. Its VNB is pegged around Rs 1,780 crore, which could go up by 37% on the YoY basis while down by 51% over the January-March quarter.
Net business premium (NBP) for this state-insurer is seen at Rs 58,118 crore which may gain 30% over the corresponding quarter in FY24. On a sequential basis, it could go down by 23%.
“We pencil in new business growth assumptions based on trends observed till May 2024, when LIC had displayed NBP/APE de-growth of -25%/-37% for 2M1QFY25 (April and May 2024) over 2M4QFY24 (January and February 2024),” Yes Securities said in a preview note.
The brokerage has pencilled-in a VNB margin contraction of 320 bps QoQ based on expected business mix changes and the company’s accounting policy of actual cost basis.Meanwhile, Antique Stock Broking has estimated a 9% YoY growth in LIC’s APE at 10,390 crore while company’s VNB could be around Rs 1,520 crore which is a likely 17% YoY uptick.VNB margin for the reporting quarter is estimated at 14.7% versus 13.7% in Q1FY24 which could be due to increasing share of non-par savings.In Q1FY24, LIC reported a profit after tax of Rs 9,543.71 crore which was up from Rs 683 crore reported in Q1FY23. A wide gap in its YoY PAT was on account of the change in its accounting policy.
Its non-par APE increased by 21.6% YoY to Rs 608 crore while total individual premium increased by 4.61% to Rs 62,773 crore.
In Q4FY24, LIC had reported a net profit of Rs 13,782 crore which was up by 4.5% YoY.
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