Labour says Tory manifesto includes ‘£71bn of unfunded spending commitments’ – UK politics live | Politics

Caroline Lucas says political rule book should be ‘torn up’ because current system ‘obstacle to securing liveable future’

Andrew Sparrow

Caroline Lucas, who is leaving Westminster after 14 years as Britain’s first Green party MP, is giving a speech tonight reflecting on the lessons she has learnt fighting for change.

She is expected to argue that, over the past decade and a half, the national debate on the environment, and climate, has changed significantly. She is expected to say:

Slowly at first, and then quite quickly, things changed.

We went from an era where Cameron as prime minister could dare to dismiss environmental concerns as ‘green crap’, to an era where net zero is now a legally binding commitment and we managed to build a cross-party political consensus to such an extent that parliament came together to declare a climate emergency.

And as depressing as it is to see the Tories now setting light to that consensus in their desperate lurch to the hard right, I don’t think we should underestimate just how much, collectively, over the last 14 years, we have in fact succeeded in changing the conversation.

I’m under no illusions that that was down to my efforts as one lone voice.

But I do think it’s down to the efforts of so many voices in our movement that has just grown and grown, and because people took action in the face of the fossil fuel lobby – and in the face of a politics that didn’t care.

It’s no longer just specialist environmental groups speaking out.

It’s not just left wing or right wing, young or old.

It’s the whole of our society coming together to exert pressure on the government to act.

But she will also argue that further change is needed, and that that will require breaking the rules determining how politics is conducted. She is expected to say:

I believe the current political rules are an obstacle to securing a liveable future.

And that until the rule book is torn up, we must all be alert to the possibility that, rather than being the agents for the real change to which we all aspire, we are in fact colluding in maintaining the status quo.

I remember one of my greatest fears about becoming an MP was being institutionalised.

I recall the time in my very early days when I was fulminating against some procedural outrage, that Margaret Beckett took me aside and said, very kindly, “you’ll get used to it”.

I promise you I never have.

Perhaps it’s happened a little, but I leave feeling that one of the things I am most proud of is resisting that every day.

The rules of politics are there to be broken.

If we’re to make more progress in the next 14 years than we have in the last 14 then, rather than being dictated to by the rule makers, you must all become rule breakers too.

Whether that’s backing political reform to break up the power of the two-party system.

Or supporting those who put their bodies on the line in the climate fight

Or organising within communities that have been held back by a failing government.

Let’s do the hard thing that we often struggle with on our side of politics: seek allies in our struggles, rather than trying to find enemies in our midst.

That’s all from my for today. Nadeem Badshah is now taking over. He will be covering tonight’s BBC Scotland leaders’ debate, which starts at 8pm.

Total school spending in England could fall by £3.5bn a year under Tory manifesto plans, IFS says

Richard Adams

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has spotted that the Conservative manifesto pledge to maintain school funding in England at its current level could actually mean a £3.5bn spending cut.

The manifesto pledge is “to protect day-to-day schools spending in real terms per pupil” over the next parliament.

But with school rolls shrinking because of the falling birthrate in recent years, that means fewer pupils and less spending on schools overall.

Luke Sibieta of the IFS explains:

While this is billed as protection, with pupil numbers falling by 400,000 up to 2028, freezing spending per pupil in real terms would, in practice, mean a £3.5bn cut to total school spending. A reduction in the overall schools budget on this scale has not been delivered since the mid-1970s, and were it to be delivered it would almost certainly require a reduction in the workforce and potentially school closures too.

The mention of “day-to-day” spending also implies that capital funding, required to replace or construct school buildings, is also vulnerable to cuts – as it was in 2010 when the Conservatives came to power.

Labour has now sent out its document costing the spending plans in the Conservative party’s manifesto. It says there is a £71bn black hole in the plan. But this is not the same as the £71bn black hole in the Tory plans identified in a Labour document published much earlier in the campaign. That black hole was a black hole in annual spending by the end of the decade, involving some very dubious assumption including the premise that the Tories would abolish all employees’ national insurance from next year. (See 4.44pm.) The new black hole involves a different set of assumptions, and in some respects it is much more realistic. It only includes the 2p cut in national insurance announced by Rishi Sunak, not his long-term aspiration to get rid of it entirely.

But, like the Tories, Labour is inflating its black hole figure by cumulating deficit figures (and over five years, not four years, as they Tories were doing).

Labour says there would be an £11bn block hole in year one, but that over five years the annual total black holes (£11bn, £10bn, £16bn, £16bn and £17bn) add up to £71bn, rounded up.

Here are the latest figures from Labour’s new document.

It is not entirely clear whether or not it is just a coincidence that the two different costings exercises have produced a £71bn figure. But if a party is using a figure for political messaging, it helps not to change it.

Alexandra Topping

It felt like the executives at Sky News were enjoying having a pop at ITV when the channel announced the format for its leaders special programme, with a live studio audience, in Grimsby on tomorrow at 7pm.

The channel has announced that for the debate both Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer will each be grilled by political editor Beth Rigby during a 20-minute interview before taking questions from the audience for 25 minutes. A coin toss will decide who will go first.

The move is a move away from the rapid-fire format used in the first leaders debate on ITV last week, which saw each leader given 45 seconds to hold forth on key topics such as tax, the cost of living crisis and immigration.

Criticism was widespread, reflected by the broadcaster Andrew Marr who quipped: “I thought it would be impossible to find a format worse than Prime Minister’s Questions; I was wrong.” An amusing viral video made by Darren McCaffrey captured the frustration of the debate’s viewers:

In an apparent swipe at ITV Sky News boss Jonathan Levy said:

People said they wanted to hear more from Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, so Sky News is giving them more time … Each candidate. 45 minutes – not 45 seconds.

The leaders event will take place between 7.30pm and 9pm with special programming before and after led by Sophy Ridge.

Sky said Grimsby was chosen because its new Grimsby and Cleethorpes constituency “is complex and likely to be a key battleground in the election”.

Labour has claimed that the plans in the Tory election manifesto would lead to a “mortgage bombshell” for homeowners because they involve unfunded spending commitments worth £71bn.

Speaking at a briefing in London, Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, said:

The analysis that we have conducted … has identified £71bn of unfunded commitments over the course of the next parliament.

The consequence of an increase in day-to-day borrowing to fund the commitments made in this manifesto would amount to a second Tory mortgage bombshell, because higher borrowing at this scale would force the Bank of England to increase interest rates.

The result would be an increase in the average mortgage totalling £4,800 over the course of the parliament.

Labour published a document at the end of last month claiming that the Tory plans involved unfunded spending commitments worth £71bn a year by the end of the decade. Here is the chart from the document justifying that figure.

The Labour claim about a Tory £71bn spending black hole (annually) was seen by commentators as having as little or even less credibility than the Tory claim about a Labour £38bn black hole (over four years). One reason for that is Labour were assuming the Tories would abolish employees’ national insurance entirely from 2025. That is not what the Tories are planning, and it is almost impossible to Rishi Sunak trying to cut taxes so drastically so quickly.

Most voters who say the war in Gaza is a priority for them would consider voting for an independent, pro-Palestinian candidate, according to new polling published by Hyphen, an online publication focusing on issues important to Muslims.

But the polling, conducted by Savanta, also suggests a majority of British Muslims do not rank the Israel-Palestine conflict as one of the top five priority issues that will determine how they vote.

And it suggests that 63% of British Muslims plan to vote Labour, down just 1 point from November last year. Only 12% plan to vote Conservative, down 7 points from last autumn.

Some 21% of British Muslims say the Israel-Palestine conflict will be the most important issue in determining how they vote, and 44% say it will be a top five issue. The equivalent figures among the population as a whole are 3% and 12%, the poll suggests.

Among those who say this is a top five concern, 86% of Muslims, and 64% of the nationally representative group, say they would consider voting for an independent candidate campaigning on the issue.

In an analysis of the findings for Hyphen, Lewis Baston, the polling expert, says there are mixed messages in the polling for Labour. He says:

In theory, there is great potential for independent candidates campaigning on the issue of the Israel/Palestine conflict. Of the 44% of Muslims who ranked the conflict in their top five issues, the vast majority (86%) said they would consider voting for a pro-Palestine independent. That would amount to 38% of Muslim voters in total; coupled with support from non-Muslims who feel strongly about Israel/Palestine, that is enough to be in contention in several parliamentary constituencies with significant Muslim populations.

But this requires credible independent candidates, of whom there is a limited supply, and understanding how many independents might actually be elected requires specific seat-by-seat knowledge of local campaigns and communities. The poll also suggests that, even though there are strong views on Gaza, Labour’s advantage on other issues – and the party’s image of listening to and representing Muslims — may enable it to resist the challenge of independents in many constituencies with big Muslim communities.

Beyond the issue of Palestine, the poll gives Labour cause for hope. The rest of the issue agenda is working so strongly against the Conservatives that even Muslims who feel strongly about Gaza seem likely to vote Labour because of other concerns, as will non-Muslim voters – particularly if there is no strong independent standing locally.

Mishal Husain to chair BBC’s Sunak/Starmer debate, after Sophie Raworth pulls out due to fractured ankle

Alexandra Topping

BBC news presenter Sophie Raworth has pulled out of hosting the head-to-head debate between Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer, The Prime Ministerial Debate, which will now be broadcast on BBC One and BBC iPlayer from 8.15pm to 9.30pm on Wednesday 26 June.

The BBC said Raworth has asked to step down as the host of the debate after fracturing her ankle, with Mishal Husain now taking on the role.

Raworth had to pull out of the London Marathon in April after 20 miles after seriously injuring her ankle.

She said:

The injury I picked up at the London marathon has now been diagnosed as a fracture in my ankle. I was only told this last week during the D-day commemorations. I’m now on crutches, in a boot and non-weight-bearing for some time.

Mishal Husain is a fantastic presenter and will be brilliant at moderating what is a really important debate for both the two leaders and the BBC. I’m delighted she is doing it.

Husain, who hosted the BBC’s first debate with representatives from seven parties on Friday, said Raworth had worked at a “remarkable” pace in recent weeks despite her injury. She said:

I can’t see myself ever stepping into her running shoes but she can count on me for this, as the two prime ministerial candidates face each other for their last television encounter.

Jonathan Munro, Deputy CEO of BBC News, said:

Mishal did an outstanding job on Friday [chairing the seven-party debate] – the BBC is very fortunate to have such a wealth of talent to draw upon. We’re wishing Sophie a speedy recovery; it seems it’s not only football managers who need to worry about foot injuries!

Richard Adams

The Conservative manifesto’s headline promise for education is to keep spending on England’s schools at its current level – which is another way of saying that schools wouldn’t be hit by the spending cuts proposed elsewhere in the manifesto.

But even that commitment only extends to pupils up to the age of 16. The manifesto pledge won’t protect colleges or sixth forms, while the other new pledges are minor or cost-free, including a new law to ban mobile phones in schools (see 2.27pm), another law to mandate a minimum of two hours PE per week – already in the national curriculum – and a promise to build 15 new special schools.

School leaders said they were underwhelmed by the offer. Pepe Di’Iasio, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said:

This is a collection of recycled policies with nothing new to say about how the Conservatives would deal with the shortage of funding, teachers and the crisis in special educational needs provision.

The pledge to protect day-to-day school spending in real terms per pupil is the bare minimum. In reality the costs that schools actually face are often higher than inflation and they are starting from a point of seeing budget cuts over the past 14 years.

The Resolution Foundation, in its instant of the Tory manifesto, also says that the richest fifth of households will benefit most from the plans it contains. It says:

Total tax giveaways announced in the manifesto today amount to £17.2bn a year by the end of the decade. RF analysis of these tax cuts (which excludes the one-off Stamp Duty cut for first-time buyers) shows that the biggest gainers overall are the richest fifth of households, who are set to gain £1,300 on average, compared to the poorest fifth who would gain £150.

And this is how it sums up the plans.

The tax and spend pledges announced today sit on top of already announced tax rises worth £23bn, and an implied £21bn cut to unprotected departments (given today’s commitment to increase defence spending), all of which would be needed for an incoming Conservative government to meet its key fiscal rule of having debt fall as a share of the economy in five years’ time (a rule reaffirmed in the manifesto).

This would leave the next parliament as a whole as one of modest tax rises, major spending cuts, and heroic efforts on the part of both HMRC and DWP to find £6bn of extra tax avoidance and benefit cuts in nine months’ time. The Foundation cautions that even if this were to be achieved, if key fiscal risks – such as lower productivity growth – become fiscal reality then this could blow another £17bn hole in these plans.