KINSELLA: Liberal forecast – sunny ways with chance of total disaster

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OTTAWA – Liberal forecast here in the Nation’s Capital: rain, hail and locusts. With a possibility of sunshine, chirping birds, and limitless blue skies.

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That, at least, was the Grit forecast at the 90th birthday party of the Rt. Hon. Jean Chretien in Ottawa Thursday night. Lovely and clear, but incoming clouds spelling total disaster. Uncertain, you might say.

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This writer was there solely to toast Chretien, so the phone was off. Not notes were taken. But many, many conversations were had, with veteran Liberals from Vancouver Island to Prince Edward Island. It was revealing. But it wasn’t unanimous.

In attendance was the sitting Liberal Prime Minister, who was quite genteel, and kept his focus on the birthday boy.

Also there were many of his cabinet ministers, particularly the ones with leadership ambitions (you could tell they were ambitious, because they were offering to take selfies of people).

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And, of course, there were scores of Chretien-era former ministers, MPs, Senators and staffers. Tons of them. All there to celebrate Chretien, and recall some of his many achievements. Among them, winning three back-to-back Parliamentary majorities – a feat that has only been achieved by Sir Wilfred Laurier, more than a century ago.

The attendees were from all over, but quite a few had stuck around the Nation’s Capital after Chretien resigned in 2003. Some did lobby work, some gave advice here and there, and some abandoned political life and got a job in the public service.

But all seemed to have kept their eyes fastened on Ottawa, and the political comings and goings during the ten-year reign of Liberal Party Leader Justin Trudeau.

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What they had to say is significant, because the 350 people in attendance know how to win. They won more majorities than anyone since, and most anyone before. They know their stuff.

There were three camps. The pessimistic, the optimistic, and the undecided. Here’s the political weather forecast from each camp.

THE PESSIMISTS: This group – chiefly represented by those whose livelihood no longer depends on Liberal beneficence – foresee unmitigated disaster for the Liberal brand. This group speculated that a decade in the political wilderness was not just possible, it was inevitable.

The main reason, for the pessimists, wasn’t entirely Justin Trudeau’s fault. The country is in a foul mood, they intoned, and he isn’t the kind of guy you keep around when everyone is miserable.

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Besides, Justin has overstayed his welcome, said the pessimists. Nearly a decade in power is plenty – as good as it gets. Time to change the channel.

If there was one criticism the pessimists had, however, it was that the Trudeau-era Liberals aren’t real Liberals. They have moved the party too far to the Left, and have become indistinguishable from the socialists. The woke stuff, in particular, has left the pessimists out in the cold.

THE OPTIMISTS: This group believes – some are actually convinced – they can win again, with Justin. No, they did not attend the party wearing straight jackets.

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On the morning of the big party, Abacus released a stunner of a poll showing the Trudeau Grits a whopping 17 points back of Pierre Poilievre’s Tories. Seventeen points!

Pressed for the reasons for their sunny ways outlook, then, the optimists took out their crystal balls. As it were.

The Spring will see interest rate drops, they insisted – something with which most economists agree. The economic fundamentals – debt-to-GDP and the like – are better than any other G7 country. Also true.

Trudeau may not be a Chretien-style PM, they acknowledged. But he is a Chretien-style campaigner, they noted, and he too has won three back-to-back elections. (Although only one of them resulted in a majority.) Also true.

And, the optimists concluded, Poilievre is rage farmer. He doesn’t have any hope stuff on offer – it’s all anger and fear, 24/7. He thinks the country is broken, and the only people who believe that are the ones who wouldn’t vote Liberal if you put an unregistered long gun to their head.

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You can’t sustain anger forever, the optimists said. Sooner or later, voters get exhausted by it. And that’s when Poilievre will run out of gas, say the optimists.

I repeat, they were not wearing straight jackets.

THE UNDECIDED: Members of this group tend to be mostly found in the private sector. They’ve done their political bit, and they have moved on to pastures untainted by governmental overreach and bureaucratic machinations. They looked blessedly serene.

And, mostly, they didn’t know what was going to happen. They agreed that it was foolish to underestimate Trudeau, as three successive Conservative leaders had done (one of those leaders, by the by, sang a birthday ditty to Chretien in a video greeting, and he – Stephen Harper – brought the house down).

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By the same token, said the undecided, it was foolish to dismiss a 17-point gap, too. With mere months to go before an election happens, they opined, double-digit deficits should not be sniffed at. They’ve been going on for months, and they’re real.

So, there you have it. The winningest faction within the winningest political party in Western democracy – and they’re all split on what the future holds, too.

They, like everyone else, are peering at the skies and wondering. Do we go golfing, or do we head to the root cellar and batten any relevant hatches?

Chretien, meanwhile, was saying nothin’. He wasn’t revealing which camp he belonged to. He told jokes, he brought us to tears, he was terrific.

If he ran again, he’d win another majority.

On that forecast, all present would agree.

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