Key events
*Sinner 3-6 1-1 Medvedev Sinner makes 30-0, but then finds himself at 30-all and already, these feel like big moments: if Medvedev breaks here, the road back will be a long one. And the Russian again ups the pressure, taking control of the rally with a backhand, coming in shortly after, and it feels like his enormous, looming presence at the net intimidates his opponent into making the error, a backhand into the net. But a huge forehand followed by a huge swing-forehand make deuce and that’s more like it from Sinner, a big serve then a clean-up forehand raising advantage. He badly needed that, the kind of point he expects to play regularly, but we wind up back at deuce, Medvedev playing a stunning point, volleying when he doesn’t have to to put Sinner under immediate pressure, then finishing the point with a lovely touch-volley drop. And again, down break point, Sinner can’t find a first serve so Medvedev comes in, dominating the rally, but the Italian does brilliantly to stick in it and benefit from a missed overhead, raising an arm to the crowd in celebration. For all the good it does him, a gorgeous backhand winner down the line raising a third break point; again, Medvedev looks poised to break, again Sinner hangs in there and again he raises an arm when a forehand winner restores deuce. This is a colossal game, Sinner saving yet another break point with a slice followed by a backhand cross – however this shakes out, he’s showing himself something here – and up advantage, he frames a volley on to the line for a potentially match-altering hold.
Sinner 3-6 0-1 Medvedev* Sinner looks a little forlorn out there, and I wonder if he’s got the tools to deal with this situation, on the fly and under this kind of pressure. Against Djokovic, he just played his own game and that was enough, but Medvedev is trying to take away from him the things he does best, hitting flatter and trying to rush his opponent. He holds to love, and we learn that Sinner’s contact point is 13cm down on previous rounds.
Daniil Medvedev takes the first set 6-3!
*Sinner 3-6 Medvedev Forehand out wide, forehand down the line, and Medvedev has 0-15 but, in charge of the next rally, he goes wide on the backhand. Still, though, he was well inside court looking to attack, and when he blocks back a return, Sinner, surprised by the lack of pace on the ball, can only flap long; 15-30, And have a look! Medvedev, again standing well in to receive, quickly manufactures a backhand winner; a longer rally doth ensue, Sinner saving the first set point when Medvedev nets. And he gets away with the second too, a poor drop inviting his opponent in … but with most of the court empty, the Russian hits to him and he guides a winner down the line for deuce. No matter: Medvedev sees Sinner coming in, makes him hit a tough volley, then comes in himself to pass for advantage, and when Sinner again goes long, he concludes an absolute sonning-off of a set. Medvedev has been brilliant, technically and tactically; Sinner has some thinking to do.
Sinner 3-5 Medvedev* Two serve winners make 30-0, and this is borderline psychopathic from Medvedev – in the best possible way – given he played four hours 18 minutes on Friday. He’s 88% on first serves and another easy hold takes him a game away from the set.
*Sinner 3-4 Medvedev Medvedev makes 0-15 but an overhit forehand then an ace, then an overhit backhand take Sinner to within a point of the game. He’s playing better now, a serve-forehand double-team securing things, but he can make an impression on the Medvedev serve? He’s running out of time so to do in this set.
Sinner 2-4 Medvedev* Is Sinner into the match now? He wins a rally from the back when Medvedev nets, but is then directed about the court, a surprise forehand to the corner altering the flow of the next point with a backhand cleaning up for 15-all, then two service winners in a row making 40-15. From there, Medvedev quickly finishes off the game with a forehand, and his aggression and precision are, so far, the dominant aspects of this match.
*Sinner 2-3 Medvedev So far, his is a proper welcome to the big leagues from Medvedev, a forehand winner giving him 0-15 But Sinner then finds what I think is his first proper forehand winner, leaping into a monster down the line. Medvedev then errs on consecutive forehands, a service winner follows, and that’s much better from the Italian, the kind of hold to which he and we have become accustomed.
Sinner 1-3 Medvedev* An ace down the T gives Medvedev 30-0, and Sinner hasn’t really got going yet. Medvedev, though, is looking great, again coming to net to volley, then a further ace secures the consolidation in short order, forcing Sinner to go again almost immediately.
*Sinner 1-2 Medvedev A longer rally, Sinner swiping a backhand wide to hand over 0-15, then going long on the fore. Little chance for Medvedev, and though it’s early in the match, he won’t expect too many 0-30s, so how will he attack this one? He gets a second serve at which to go, goes to Sinner’s forehand – that’s the second time he’s done that, and he’s trying to play aggressively – a long rally ensures … and again, a little imprecision, Sinner going long, means three break points. Medvedev isn’t waiting to be asked here, quickly coming in only to overhit, and when Sinner does next point, he’s able to hit one stretch-volley, but can’t get to a second, a big forehand pass too good. First blood Medvedev, Sinner broken for just the third time in the competition, and he’s looking good out there so far, trying to make things happen instead of hanging about waiting for an error.
Sinner 1-1 Medvedev* I wonder if Sinner fancies medvedeving Medvedev, moving him about to put more yards into his legs. But for now, the Russian gets to 40-15 easily enough … only to double. His propensity to hand over points like that was perhaps the main reason he lost the first set of his semi, and he won’t get away with it today, going long on the backhand to cede deuce. He soon makes advantage, though, a net-cord sitting up and pleading to be dispatched; Medvedev does not disappoint, a service-winner follows, and he’s on the board.
*Sinner 1-0 Medvedev (denotes server) Good return from Medvedev, to the feet and helping him to 0-15, but Sinner, who’s been broken just twice in the competition, quickly levels us up. From there, he secures the game – with an ace – but it’s notable that we see Medvedev have a go at his second serve. I don’t think he’ll be as passive tonight as he was against Zverev – if for no other reason that he can’t afford another match of 67,301-stroke rallies.
And play, Sinner to serve.
Anyone else think Lleyton Hewitt and Shay given might be related?
Laver is absolutely buzzing, and rightly so.
Our players are tunnelled … and here they come! Sinner looks dead pensive, like a kid putting on their angry face.
Sinner is, as discussed, Italian. But he’s from the north, where the classical temperament is more Austrian: calm, composed and almost cold. Though he’ll be buzzing to be in his first Slam final, he won’t shrink nor will he get over-excited. And given his serve and forehand are so reliable, it shouldn’t be difficult for him to settle.
Also going on: Baz’s Testvangelists are delivering yet again.
In other, rrrrridiculous Australia news:
Now that you ask, I’m going for Sinner in four. Medvedev will need to play better – much better – than he has so far, and I don’t think that’s in him, even if he’s at his best and not coming off a second marathon of the competition.
Let’s be real, though. This weekend, there’s only one champion.
The last Italian man to win a Slam was Adriano Panatta at Roland-Garros in 1976. Even if Sinner loses today, that’s not something we’ll be saying for much longer because over the last few months, he’s proved that at some point, he’ll win one of these. And after that, he’ll win a few more.
And whether Medvedev has legs for yet another struggle, we don’t know. He seemed to get stronger against Zverev, but at times looked exceedingly bedraggled, and I’d not be shocked if it took the first set today to run that out of his legs – and head.
I thought Medvedev got away with it against Zverev on Friday. Of course, the comeback and contest were awesome, but he took too long to adjust tactics when the original plan wasn’t working, and Sinner is a far more solid, versatile opponent. I’d not be surprised if he wins in three, whereas for Medvedev to win, given Sinner’s consistency and serve, I think it’ll take a struggle.
So how will our match go? Happily for all of us, here’s Coach Calv with the breakdown: “It’s a classic tactical match of attack v resistance. Medvedev always beat him but Sinner won the last one. You’d have to favour Sinner because of how fresh he is compared to how many minutes Medvedev has played, and if Sinner plays well, he’ll win, whereas if Medvedev plays well, he won’t necessarily win.
There’s not loads to say on it tactically because they’re both pretty straightforward in how they play. Medvedev will try to keep Sinner out of the middle of the court. When you’re playing a big ball-striker you always want to keep them moving, so they can never set behind the ball, and they’ll still try and hit huge while moving, which is more of a risk. Sinner will use the drop-shot a fair bit I would think, while Medvedev’s issue is that he doesn’t really have a way of shortening the points that doesn’t compromise the thing he’s good at.”
Preamble
It feels slightly strange to begin by thinking about who isn’t here, rather than who is, but such is men’s tennis in the big-three aeon: the question isn’t just who wins today, but what that win might mean.
Novak Djokovic has colonised 12 of the 18 Grand Slam titles and three of the last four, his dominance equal parts incredible and routine. So when he’s beaten as definitively as Jannik Sinner beat him on Friday, the focus is inevitably on him and whether we might, finally, be witnessing the end of one of the most outrageous epochs any sport has ever seen.
But it’s not just about the end of an epoch but the start of another. Daniil Medvedev has been there or thereabouts for a while now, losing in four major finals while winning one, but it’s probably fair to say there will never be a Medvedev era. He’s a brilliant player, of course, but not brilliant enough to refocus an entire sport and make it solely about him; at best, he’s an interregnum commander, handily placed to elevate his career with big pots by hitting his peak just as the greatest of all time fades.
Jannik Sinner, though, is a different thing, a 22-year-old physical and mental freak still nowhere near his best, who on Friday quietly demolished Djokovic like it was his birthright. If he wins here, we might later look upon today as the day the world changed, and a new world order established itself.
Or, alternatively, this might just be a blip, with Djokovic coming back in Paris – and Wimbledon, and New York – to blow everyone away again. But in the meantime, this is going to be great.
