The presidential race is neck and neck, a toss-up, a dead heat. But don’t take my word for it, or anyone else’s. No matter what you hear, no one actually knows what will happen.
Polls aren’t always accurate, but they’re all we’ve got. So here’s what we know: Nationally, the race is tied, give or take a few points within the margin of error. Regardless of the seesaw, it’s clear that support for former President Trump remains high, despite a surge in momentum for the Harris campaign since the vice president took the top of the Democratic ticket this summer.
But remember—national polls are one indicator of overall support, but that’s not how we elect a president. To state the obvious, the Electoral College decides the presidency, and not the popular vote.
What does it all mean? Same as ever, this election will be decided by turnout in specific places. Specifically, voters in a handful of swing states—Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Georgia—will decide our future. Here’s where those races stand, according to an average of solid polling:
- PA: Harris +1.6
- AZ: Trump +0.4
- MI: Harris +3.2
- WI: Harris +1.7
- NV: Harris +1.4
- GA: Trump +1.6
While it may look like Harris is leading, the reality is more complicated. In the past, polls have tended to under-predict Trump’s support come Election Day.
The real story, if you ask me, is what young voters will do. Young voters will be especially important this cycle: For the first time ever, Gen-Z and millennial voters will make up almost HALF of the eligible voting population. In 2020, youth turnout was 50%—a huge step up from years past, and a possible indication of another high turnout in 2024.
No matter who wins, this election will be decided by a few thousand votes. That’s why young people—and whether or not they vote—are the most important variable. Current polls show young people are extremely enthusiastic about Kamala Harris overall, but there’s a substantial and deepening gender gap between men and women under the age of 29. The recent New York Times/Siena polls taken in six swing states show young women prefer Harris by 38 points, while young men favor Trump by 13 points, making for a 51-point difference.
