Iowa caucus 2024: Live updates as Trump, DeSantis and Haley seek GOP nomination

Ironically, as the first-in-the-nation contest looks set to do so again nearly a quarter-century later, former President Donald Trump’s expected overwhelming victory on Monday 15 January may reveal the diminished influence of the caucuses, which the Democrats have now dropped altogether in favour of mail-in ballots for the 2024 contest.

Since the 1970s, the entire point of the caucuses has been that in a small state such as Iowa, an unknown presidential candidate can work hard and shake as many hands as humanly possible, perform well above expectations, and subsequently ride the wave of attention and momentum all the way to the nomination.

The example most cited is the 1976 win for Jimmy Carter, the former governor of Georgia who would go on to beat incumbent President Gerald Ford.

Mr Carter did the grunt work, starting to spend time in the state before anyone else, and building his support by doing person-to-person politicking.

Mr Trump has hosted massive rallies, speaking to hundreds and sometimes thousands of people at once. If fewer than 400 attended, it was considered a small event. The ex-president looks likely to win Monday’s contest handily having done very little, if any, of the small-scale campaigning that used to be required to win. Iowa is no longer universally seen as the stepping stone it once was.

It’s finally here: the first test of the Republican primary field at the hands of voters.

Four prominent Republican candidates have charged into the Buckeye state hoping for different outcomes. Donald Trump, the frontrunner, wants a convincing victory to signal to voters (and donors) that the race is all but wrapped up. Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis are hoping for shock successes that will give them the momentum needed to overtake Mr Trump in later states, such as New Hampshire. And Vivek Ramaswamy is hoping for a shot of adrenaline in the heart of his struggling campaign following an unceremonious exclusion from the debate stage lineup.

Chris Christie, seeing himself wholly uncompetitive in the first contest of 2024 — and losing ground in New Hampshire — has thrown in the towel.

Political analysts hoping for clues about the trajectory of the rest of the primary, and most crucially an answer to the question of whether anyone has a chance at beating Mr Trump, are also looking at Iowa closely. Monday’s results will likely determine the fate of several candidates, while also providing a window for speculation about the general election.

Here’s what The Independent is keeping an eye on:

Donald Trump’s closing message in Iowa before the first votes of the 2024 presidential election was a familiar one. He’s convinced his supporters that his legal problems are their own, and that he’s the only one who can stop them, while stringing along a fake narrative that the 2020 election was stolen from them.

As he targets a key Republican voting bloc of evangelical Christians, the former president is leaning into a fantasy among supporters and social media influencers depicting him as something of a messianic figure, who was sent by God as a “shepherd to mankind” who ends his week in the Oval Office “by attending church on Sunday,” according to one video shared by his campaign.

Mr Trump never joined a church during his presidency, nor was he seen attending services more than a handful of times. Nevertheless, he shared the video, from a group of meme creators who have worked closely with the former president’s campaign, hours before votes were cast in Iowa.

Ron DeSantis was trolled by a heckler who presented a participation trophy to him ahead of the Iowa caucuses on Monday, 15 January.

The incident occurred on Saturday after the Florida governor’s town hall in Atlantic, Iowa.

In Sergeant Bluff, Iowa – an area outside of Sioux Falls – Florida Governor and 2024 presidential candidate Ron DeSantis met briefly with voters to encourage turnout.

“Are you ready to brave the frigid temperatures?” Mr DeSantis told voters.

The governor gave a quick speech in a last-ditch effort to sway potential voters in his favour. Final polling from Iowa showed Mr DeSantis in third place behind former president Donald Trump and Ms Haley.

Sub-zero temperatures mixed with icy and snowy conditions have left some concerned that voter turnout could be lower than usual.

“The GOP could not be a party wherein he could have potential apprentices who could usurp him. Rather, he needed subservient lieutenants who could not replace him.

Tonight, Mr Trump is set to finish his conquest of the GOP as he dethrones Ms Haley and Mr DeSantis. Mr Trump already steadily put Ms Haley under his thumb when he absorbed her into his administration and made her US ambassador to the United Nations despite her lack of foreign policy credentials.

By doing so, he neutered someone who offered a more enticing version of the GOP – the daughter of Indian American immigrants with sterling conservative credentials who nonetheless appealed to Democrats. “

Tonight the presidential election season kicks off with the Iowa caucus – taking place at precincts in all 99 counties of Iowa.

The caucus will begin at 7pm CT (8pm ET) and results are expected to begin coming in around half an and hour after the start time, consultant Patrick Stewart told The Des Moines Register.

Early results will likely come from smaller precincts as larger ones have more votes to count. The larger counties’ results will likely arrive a few hours after the caucus begins.

Fuller results that will indicate how each candidate performed should be available well into the evening.

This weekend, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley got an unexpected jolt when the final NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll showed her beating Florida Governor Ron DeSantis–though she still trails former president Donald Trump by 28 points.

The numbers no doubt give her a boost ahead of the caucuses and show how quickly Mr DeSantis has fallen when he’s staked his entire campaign on Iowa. Ms Haley also hopes for a good showing in a state where she did not campaign ahead of the New Hampshire, where she has spent a heave amount of time campaigning. But a closer examination shows that Ms Haley’s support is more wobbly.

For one, the poll showed that only 64 per cent of Haley supports said that their mind is made up, which is about the same as the number of DeSantis supporters. It’s also significantly lower than the 82 per cent of Mr Trump supporters who say their mind is made up.

Ms Haley also does not have the same level of enthusiasm among her supporters., only 9 per cent of Ms Haley’s supporters say that they are “extremely enthusiastic” about supporting her and 30 per cent are “very enthusiastic.” By comparison, 23 per cent of Mr DeSantis’s supporters are “extremely enthusiastic” and 39 per cent say they are “very enthusiastic.” That could make or break Ms Haley’s performance in the midst of the bitter cold after a blizzard.

Furthermore, Ms Haley has high unfavourable numbers, as 48 per cent of those polled saying they have a favourable opinion of her and 46 per cent saying they have an unfavourable opinion of her.

Those unfavourable numbers are certain to go up as the campaign continues, particularly as Mr Trump and Mr DeSantis continue to hone their attacks on her.

In Pella, Iowa – a small town approximately 30 miles outside of Des Moines – former UN ambassador and Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley spent time speaking with voters intimately.

Ms Haley swapped her typical stage to get more personal with locals. Photos from a local bread shop in town showed her taking a tour, speaking with potential voters and even doting on babies.

With a packed schedule this year due to a series of court cases and campaign events, former president Donald Trump has a team of allies helping him get the word out in Iowa ahead of the caucus.

Congressional members Marjorie Taylor Greene, Matt Gaetz, Jim Jordan, Byron Donalds, Ronny Jackson, Jason Smith, Derrick Van Orden, Mike Collins, Andrew Clyde, Wesley Hunt and Mike Waltz joined forces to speak with voters and rally support behind Mr Trump.

Other people like Kari Lake, Billy Long and Kristi Noem did the same.

The group addressed voters in Fort Dodge, Iowa on Monday, hours ahead of the caucus