(NewsNation) — President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump continue to run neck-and-neck in the race for the White House, a trend that hasn’t changed significantly since convictions were handed down for Trump as well as Biden’s son Hunter.
Trump continues to hold a slim lead in several polls and maintains leads in key battleground states ahead of the first presidential debate, according to polling conducted by Emerson College/The Hill.
The polling shows that Trump leads Biden by four points in Georgia and Arizona, three points up in Wisconsin and Nevada and two points up in Pennsylvania. Trump also maintains a one-point lead in Michigan, according to the polling.
“There has been little movement, with support for Trump and Biden staying largely consistent since November, ”Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, told The Hill following its first poll since Trump’s hush money conviction in May.
What were Trump and Hunter Biden convicted of?
On May 31, Trump was found guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records in an attempt to keep information from voters ahead of the 2016 presidential election.
Meanwhile, Hunter Biden was convicted earlier this month on three weapons charges in the first of two trials the president’s son will face ahead of his father’s bid for reelection.
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – MAY 28: Former U.S. President Donald Trump returns after a break in his criminal trial for allegedly covering up hush money payments at Manhattan Criminal Court on May 28, 2024 in New York City. Trump arrived for closing arguments in his hush money trial ahead of the jury deciding whether to make him the first criminally convicted former president and current White House hopeful in history. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images) -
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FILE – Former President Donald Trump appears at Manhattan criminal court before his trial in New York, May 3, 2024. Just six months before Election Day, President Joe Biden and Trump are locked into the first presidential rematch in 68 years that is at once deeply entrenched and highly in flux. Trump is in the midst of the first of potentially four criminal trials and could well be a convicted felon by November. Still, nothing prevents him from assuming the presidency if convicted, or even if he is in prison. (Curtis Means/Pool Photo via AP, File) -
Hunter Biden, President Joe Biden’s son, accompanied by his mother, first lady Jill Biden and his wife, Melissa Cohen Biden, walks out of federal court after hearing the verdict, Tuesday, June 11, 2024, in Wilmington, Del. Hunter Biden has been convicted of all 3 felony charges in the federal gun trial. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum) -
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – MAY 30: Former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to the media after being found guilty on all 34 counts in his hush money trial at Manhattan Criminal Court on May 30, 2024 in New York City. The former president was found guilty on all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in the first of his criminal cases to go to trial. Trump has now become the first former U.S. president to be convicted of felony crimes. (Photo by Justin Lane-Pool/Getty Images) -
TOPSHOT – US President Joe Biden talks with his son Hunter Biden upon arrival at Delaware Air National Guard Base in New Castle, Delaware, on June 11, 2024, as he travels to Wilmington, Delaware. (Photo by ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / AFP) (Photo by ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images)
President Biden was not implicated in the case and said that he accepts the jury’s decision and has no plans for a pardon for his son.
Trump is scheduled to be sentenced on July 11, just days before the start of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. After the jury read its verdict in May, Trump said the trial had been disgraceful and rigged.
“The real verdict is going to be Nov. 5 by the people,” Trump said. “This is long from over.”
Independents might be swayed by Hunter Biden, Trump convictions
Residents in seven key states for the 2024 race indicated Trump’s conviction has no impact on how they will vote, the Emerson College polling found.
The same residents said the same about Hunter Biden’s conviction, showing that the two trials will not likely have a huge impact on the election results.
Although voters loyal to the Republican or Democratic Parties are not likely to be swayed by the convictions, a recent poll conducted by Politico/Ipsos found that 21% of independents were less likely to vote for Trump due to his hush money conviction.
NewsNation political contributor Chris Stirewalt recently said on The Hill that Trump’s legal woes could be a determining factor in the mind of the undecided voter.
“Having Donald Trump in the news every day for a couple of weeks and emphasizing the fact that he is a convicted felon took these marginal Biden voters — these folks who were saying they were undecided, took these folks who said, ‘Maybe I’ll vote for RFK Jr, maybe I’ll write in Peppa Pig,’” Stirewalt said. “These people said, ‘Uh, I have to do it – the election is on.’”
Trump still faces looming criminal charges in his classified documents and election interference cases, although dates have not been set, and it’s likely proceedings may not take place ahead of the November election.
Some polling shows momentum for Biden
Other recent polls have shown Biden picking up support among likely voters. Political site FiveThirtyEight shows Biden holding a slight lead over his Republican challenger by a 0.4% margin Monday, marking the first time that the president has led in its polling averages.
Polls conducted by YouGov (CBS News) and ActiVote show Trump leading the race, while two recent polls sponsored by Fox News show Biden leading by 2 points and 1 point, respectively.
A poll conducted last week by Redfield & Wilton Strategies and sponsored by The Economist shows the race to be even.
None of the polling shows either candidate with more than a three-point advantage heading into Thursday’s debate.
