Here’s why Doug Ford isn’t about to call an early election in Ontario

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We aren’t headed towards an early election in Ontario any time soon, but Premier Doug Ford is having fun keeping people guessing. Last week, Ford was asked at a news conference about early election speculation, and he wouldn’t rule out an early vote.

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He did the same thing while speaking to my friend and colleague Jerry Agar on Newstalk 1010 on Tuesday morning.

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“I can’t answer that. I just can’t right now,” Ford said.

Understandably, Agar was puzzled and noted if Ford can’t answer that, then no one can.

“As far as I’m concerned. We’re gonna focus on our agenda, getting things done,” Ford said. “Stay tuned.”

So, Ford’s not denying an early election, which must mean it’s true. The Toronto Star has run several stories on the idea that Ford is going to the polls early, Agar had a column in The Toronto Sun on the issue and talked about it on radio, and Global New Radio’s Greg Brady is also convinced it’s happening.

With that many people pushing the idea, there must be some truth to it.

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Not really.

Mischief on the part of Ford and his team for sure, but why would they go to the polls early? Ford is old enough to remember what happened to Liberal Premier David Peterson when he called an election three years into a majority – he got clobbered by the NDP.

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Does Ford want to be known as the next premier to give us an NDP government with Premier Marit Stiles at the helm? Not likely.

One theory being floated, pushed really, is that Ford will use the good news announcement of beer and wine in corner stores to convince voters he’s delivering for them. As welcome as that promise is, it’s hardly worthy of an early election.

Ford needs to show tangible progress on issues like Hwy. 413, the Bradford bypass, building new hospitals and more before he goes to the voters. He moved the beer and wine announcement up so that the changes, and negotiations weren’t happening so close to the next election, not so he could call an early campaign.

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Another theory is that Ford wants to get the election out of the way before the federal vote in October 2025. Some people believe in the theory of alternation, that when Conservatives are elected in Ottawa, for example, they will vote for Liberals provincially.

One big skeptic of that theory is Ford’s own campaign manager, Kory Teneycke, who has never bought into the idea. Teneycke has been scoffing at the idea of an early election since it first started surfacing a few months ago, and his view hasn’t changed as the whisper turned into a scream this week.

Those closest to Ford say there are no plans for an early election.

Too many people think politics resembles The West Wing with super smart people devising grand plans, when in reality it’s closer to VEEP, and we should all be amazed that anything gets done.

If I’m right on this, and trust me, I am, there is still the question of why he won’t rule out an early vote. It comes down to two things: Ford doesn’t want to rule anything out, and it terrifies Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals and keeps them off balance.

A week is a lifetime in politics and a year is an eternity — things could change.

Ford has been known to back track or change his mind a time or two, but at this point, don’t start betting on an early vote.

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