(NewsNation) — President Joe Biden was the first Democratic presidential candidate to win the state of Georgia in 28 years, the last time he and former President Donald Trump faced each other in a general election, though repeating that success looks to be an uphill climb.
Biden won the state by the thinnest of margins in 2020: less than 12,000 votes (.23%), making Georgia the state with his closest margin of victory.
Ahead of this election, Decision Desk HQ currently gives the former president a 63% chance to take the state this time around.
In Georgia, both campaigns are aggressively courting their base voters and hoping to eat away at the margins of the other’s core constituencies.
The Biden Campaign
By the end of this week, state Democrats and the Biden campaign will have 12 offices open around the state with over 60 staffers. Those numbers will continue to climb as the summer progresses.
One of the key constituencies in the Peach State is Black voters.
When Stacey Abrams ran for governor in 2018 and 2020, she was an organizing juggernaut who helped mobilize and turn out Democratic voters around the state. While she was unsuccessful in both bids, experts say her work helped Biden win the state.
This year, Biden is courting these voters again, pointing out that he’s directed over $16 billion to HBCUs and was invited to give the Morehouse College commencement address.
Additionally, the campaign is spending on ads that focus on African American voters, and Biden has given interviews to Black media sharing how unemployment is at all-time lows and wealth is higher than ever among the Black community.
However, current polls show that support for Biden in the Black community may be softening.
Tolulope Kevin Olasanoye, executive director of the Democratic Party of Georgia, dismissed the polling, saying many aren’t yet paying attention to the election.
“Real people are not focused on this. And when they finally do, we’ll be ready, poised to be able to make the contrast. Help them to understand why it’s so important for our democracy, for their kids, for their grandkids, to make sure that President Biden and Vice President Harris are reelected,” Olasanoye said.
He said the party has been working for six months building the infrastructure to be successful in November.
Georgia Dems also believe one of their advantages this cycle is the 13,000 new Democrats they believe have moved into the state since 2020.
The campaign points out that former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley garnered almost 78,000 votes in the Republican primary even after dropping out of the race, providing further evidence of a path to victory.
As in other swing states, the campaign hopes to chip away at Trump’s margins among Republican and independent voters. The issues it’s focused on include reproductive rights, health care and jobs.
Olasanoye also noted that “93% of the voting coalition that helped to elect President Biden and Vice President Harris in 2020 came back out to vote again in 2022″ and will do so once more with the proper on-the-ground efforts.
There are other headwinds, including several bills passed that Democrats say are designed to suppress voters. They include making it easier to remove voters from rolls and making it easier to submit massive voter challenges of any kind.
To help counteract this, Georgia Dems say they have built a large and robust voter protection program.
“Don’t count us out… a lot of people counted us out here in 2020. … I have a lot of confidence that the coalition is here to be able to do it. But we’ve got work to do,” said Olasanoye.
The Trump Campaign
Given the polling in the state, the Trump campaign and RNC seem confident but not so much so that they’re ignoring the state.
The Georgia GOP headquarters in Atlanta is being used by the Trump campaign and RNC.
According to an RNC spokesperson, there are a dozen field offices around the state with plans to open more. Locations will include Atlanta, Columbus, Savannah, Augusta and Gwinnett County.
Georgia GOP Chair Josh McKoon believes this is largely an election focused on turning out the Republican base.
“I think that when you see where these offices are opening, that’s very consistent with making sure we are where we need to be to turn out those base Republican voters across Georgia.”
McKoon also believes this year provides a real opportunity “to make statistically significant gains in terms of Black male voters.”
He said that for Biden to win in Georgia, it requires an enormous block vote from the Black community, more than 90%, as well as some softness for Trump in Republican suburban areas, something he doesn’t believe is happening.
According to an RNC spokesperson, the RNC launched a first-of-its-kind “Election Integrity Department” in states like Georgia and is holding weekly election integrity training for poll watchers in all battleground states.
They’re also helping local election administrators staff up precincts with poll workers.
On the issues, RNC spokesperson Anna Kelly said that “American voters are interested in President Trump’s agenda to curb inflation, lower costs, [and] secure the open southern border.”
In a shift from previous cycles, McKoon said they’re encouraging Republican voters to vote early instead of waiting until Election Day.
And as evidence of GOP voter interest in the election, he pointed to the primary saying, “Georgia Republicans outvoted Democrats early in the primary. … We outvoted them by about 80,000 in terms of people turning out in the primary.”
To help voters change their habits, he said they reached out to about 150,000 voters to encourage them to vote early instead of on Election Day.
When someone votes early, it allows the party to focus resources on other voters. Early voting is something Democrats have done successfully in the past and continue to encourage.
In response to the Democrats’ belief that an increase in their voters will make a difference, McKoon pointed to an election last month for the state Supreme Court and said, “John Barrow ran as a Democrat, ran on abortion and [said], ‘I’m going to restore women’s reproductive rights’ and that whole playbook, and he got beat by about 80,000 votes.”
Overall, McKoon believes they have a slight advantage but they have to work hard to maximize that, saying “Hopefully when we do that, on November 5, President Trump’s going to win our 16 electoral votes.”
