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Rishi Sunak is reported to be worried about losing his own seat as a string of polls put the Conservatives on course for a historic defeat just hours before voting begins.
The party is set to suffer its worst general election result in history, according to a major poll for The Independent that suggests it will hold on to just 82 seats, as a Labour landslide gives Sir Keir Starmer’s party 461.
Earlier, the last YouGov MRP of the campaign gave Labour the biggest majority for any single party since 1832, with 431 seats.
And a survey for More in Common predicted the Tories would win just 126 seats, against Labour’s 430.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and defence secretary Grant Shapps are among the veteran Conservatives set to be ousted, polls predict.
The prime minister is said to have told confidants on Tuesday he thought the vote in Richmond, North Yorkshire, was too close to call.
Today he insisted he was still in the fight after one of his closest allies, Mel Stride, appeared to concede the Tories were heading to a heavy defeat.
Pinned post: Tories heading for disaster as new poll suggests Sunak will win just 82 seats
The Techne survey puts Labour on course for a 272-seat majority:
Jane Dalton3 July 2024 19:32
Windy weather and rain to sweep UK on polling day
Winds are set to sweep much of the UK as voters head to polling stations, the Met Office has said.
Rains are also expected across west and northwest Scotland, northwest England and across Northern Ireland on Thursday, according to the forecaster.
Southeast England will experience the brightest, warmest weather with areas around London expected to reach temperatures of up to 22C.
Chillier weather is predicted further north with most of the day’s rainfall expected in northwest Scotland, the forecaster said.
Liam Eslick, meteorologist at the Met Office, said: “It’s going to be quite a windy day across much of the UK.
“The strongest winds are going to be towards Northern Ireland, the western parts of Scotland and northern England – so we could see winds getting up to around 35, maybe even possibly 40mph, especially around the coasts of Scotland.
“It’s going to be a windy day for most people but it is going to be bright for central and southern England as well as Wales.”
He added: “Where you are out of the wind, it will feel rather warm and even pleasant in the sunshine as well, but the further north you go – it is going to be quite chilly and fresh day for many.”
Voter turnout is not generally affected by weather conditions, records suggest.
Shweta Sharma4 July 2024 03:46
Watch: Do we get good leadership when we fall for charismatic candidates?
Do we get good leadership when we fall for charismatic candidates?
In recent elections, it seems that voters have been swayed more by charismatic candidates than the promises being made. Through the bumpy ride that has been Brexit followed by coronavirus followed by the cost of living crisis, amidst several crises of international security, it has to be wondered if charisma is really the best method to pick a good leadership candidate? Bethan Kapur speaks with academics about the mechanics of falling for charismatic leaders and whether voters in this general election are still looking to be swooned or something else this time. Get all your election coverage here.
Jane Dalton4 July 2024 02:50
Sunak admits being ‘underdog’
During his last speech on the campaign trail, the prime minister said: “This underdog will fight to the final whistle.”
Rishi Sunak stood for a photo with his family after giving a speech at Romsey Rugby Club, north of Southampton where he grew up.
Sir Keir Starmer gave his last speech of the election campaign at a community centre in Redditch.
Speaking to cheering activists for the final time before polls open, the Labour leader signed off saying: “Imagine a Britain moving forward together with a Labour government.”
Jane Dalton4 July 2024 01:45
Readers blast Tory ‘smear tactic’ against Starmer’s work-life balance
Jane Dalton4 July 2024 00:40
Analysis: Could the Tories end up being the third-largest party in the Commons?
Sean O’Grady looks at the history of the ‘supermajority’ and the probable numbers now:
Jane Dalton3 July 2024 23:35
Tories wiped out in Wales and two English regions, poll suggests
Wales and two English regions could be left with no Conservative MPs come Friday, according to YouGov, with the Labour Party on course for a 431-seat landslide.
YouGov polled 47,751 adults in Britain between June 19 and July 2 before making the forecast, which suggests the Conservatives could win just 102 seats.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, defence secretary Grant Shapps and justice secretary Alex Chalk are among the prominent Tories set to lose their seats according to three MRP polls, which look at constituency-level results as well as the national picture.
More in Common has found counting will end with Labour on around 430 seats, while Survation’s model – a survey of 34,558 respondents between June 15 and July 2 – suggests Labour’s tally could stretch to between 447 and 517.
Jane Dalton3 July 2024 23:00
Two leaders each warn against the other in final pleas to voters
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer have each warned against voting in the other party as they made their final pleas to voters ahead of the polls opening in the morning.
Prime minister Mr Sunak insisted Thursday represented a “pivotal moment” for the country’s future, as he claimed Labour would “wield their unchecked power” to increase taxes should they secure a “supermajority”.
“Mark my words — they are coming for your pension, your home, your car. You name it, Labour will tax it. Your vote matters, vote Conservative today,” he said.
Labour leader Sir Keir said the UK “cannot afford” five more years under the Conservatives, adding Britain can “begin a new chapter” under his party.
“The choice today is clear. Between a changed Labour Party that stands ready to restore politics to service and rebuild Britain. Or a Tory party that crashed our economy, left public services in ruin, and now wants to give us Liz Truss 2.0 with more unfunded spending promises,” he said.
Jane Dalton3 July 2024 22:30
Starmer vows to keep children out of limelight at No 10
Sir Keir Starmer has said keeping his teenage children out of the limelight is something he owes them.
The Labour leader vowed to be “fiercely protective” of them if the family moves into 10 Downing Street.
On the campaign trail, he said: “I don’t want to overly talk about my children because I don’t want to bring them into this – that’s the very thing I’ve been trying not to do.
“Look, it’s not easy if you’re 16 and 13-and-a-half to go through big changes in your life if that’s what happens, and so, you know, they’re understandably at an age where this is very impactful on them, which is why I’ve been so fiercely protective of them for many years now and will continue to try to be so.”
Jane Dalton3 July 2024 22:01
Johnny Mercer’s wife calls police on protest by Gulf War veterans
Johnny Mercer’s wife calls police on protest by Gulf War veterans
Johnny Mercer’s wife appeared to call the police on Gulf War veterans who carried out a peaceful protest against the veterans’ minister a day before the general election. Several members of Justice4Veterans, who claim to suffer from Gulf War Syndrome, arrived in Plymouth Moor View with banners on Wednesday (3 July), accusing Mr Mercer of betrayal. The banners also called for local residents to vote him out of office. In a video, shared by Justice4Veterans, Mr Mercer’s wife Felicity can be seen on the phone. She says: “I’m standing on Derriford Roundabout, and I’ve got some people with banners saying ‘Johnny Judas Mercer’and ‘Johnny Mercer out’. I’d like some police sent down please.” The Independent has contacted Devon and Cornwall Police for further information.
Jane Dalton3 July 2024 21:20
