France election live: exit poll puts far-right National Rally ahead | France

With polls now closed, first estimates have been published.

Note that these numbers should be treated with caution: while these figures show broad election dynamics, they do not necessarily reflect the final outcome given that there are 577 constituency votes – and a second round next weekend.

Here are the estimates from IFOP:

Far right National Rally: 34.2%

Leftwing New Popular Front: 29.1%

Emmanuel Macron’s allies Together: 21.5%

Here are the estimates conducted for BFMTV:

Far right National Rally: 33%

Leftwing New Popular Front: 28.5%

Emmanuel Macron’s allies Together: 22%

Our Paris correspondent, Angelique Chrisafis, has written a useful guide for what to expect this evening.

Estimations at 8pm CET will project the national vote share of parties. But this figure must be taken with caution. It will show the broad dynamic of support for each party across France, but it does not indicate the shape of a future parliament because the 577 different constituency votes will be defined by local context and candidates.

Polls have shown that, in terms of overall national vote share, the far-right National Rally could substantially increase its showing from the last parliament election, when it took just over 18%, to about 35%. The left alliance has been predicted to follow on about 27% and Emmanuel Macron’s centrists behind on about 21%.

Read the full guide here.

Turnout has been much higher today than during France’s last legislative election in 2022.

At 5pm local time, turnout stood at 59.39%, compared with merely 39.4% at that time in the 2022 election.

‘Cliffhanger at the end of each episode’: Macron’s grouping struggles for survival

Angelique Chrisafis

Emmanuel Macron’s centrist grouping was fighting for survival this weekend before the first round of France’s high-stakes snap election, which could lead to the far-right National Rally (RN) becoming the biggest force in parliament.

Macron, who warned last week that France risked “civil war” if Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigration RN, or the leftwing New Popular Front coalition, came to power, said at the European summit in Brussels that “uninhibited racism and antisemitism” had been unleashed in France.

But his strategy of stoking a climate of fear, in which his centrists are presented as the only rational force to hold back the breakdown of French society, is seen as backfiring.

Antoine Bristielle, the director of opinion at the Fondation Jean-Jaurès thinktank, said that since Macron called the election, France’s political future was extremely difficult to read. “Macron is more and more unpredictable,” he said. “It’s as if he’s running the country like he’s in a Netflix series – and has to put a cliffhanger at the end of each episode.”

Read the full story here.

Who is Jordan Bardella?

Angelique Chrisafis

Jordan Bardella, a 28-year old member of the European parliament, is the far-right National Rally’s candidate for prime minister.

He has one of the biggest TikTok followings in French politics and never says no to a selfie with teenage fans.

The son of Italians who arrived in the 1960s, Bardella is presented as a “good immigrant” who embraced French culture and civilisation, which he now warns is under threat from what he calls Islamist ideology.

He has taken a deliberately humble tone with voters, part of a strategy to deliver the final phase of Marine Le Pen’s decade-long drive to soften the far-right party’s image.

Bardella does not seek to dilute the party’s hardline anti-immigration message, which has not changed since the 1970s; instead he wants to make it respectable and fully mainstream ahead of Le Pen’s fourth attempt at the presidency in 2027.

Read more here.

The last IFOP poll before the first round of the French election, published Friday, put the far-right National Rally at 36.5% and the left-wing New Popular Front at 29%.

The same poll found that the far-right would take between 225 and 265 seats in the 577-seat national assembly – falling short of the 289 required for a majority – while the New Popular Front would take 170-200.

Nevertheless, some other polls put the far-right in a stronger position, predicting that it could even win a majority of seats.

A poll conducted for BFMTV put the far-right at between 260 and 295 seats.

Good evening and welcome to the French election blog.

Citizens across France went to the polls today for the first round of a snap legislative election unexpectedly called by Emmanuel Macron after his allies performed poorly in the European elections on 9 June, while the far-right won the most votes.

The election is widely seen as a gamble from the French president, who is facing a presidential election in 2027. But polls ahead of today’s election also put the far-right in the lead, with Macron’s allies trailing behind in third place.

A second round is scheduled for next Sunday, 7 July.

Stay tuned and send your comments to [email protected].