Examining scenarios for the future of the PGA Tour and LIV Golf

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While the future of professional golf is a little clearer this week than last, exactly how the final product will look is anyone’s guess.

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With that being the case, it seems like a good time to look into our crystal golf ball and take a few swings at it.

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Here’s what we know so far: The PGA Tour has an investment deal worth approximately $3 billion with American-based Strategic Sports Group that will transform the tour from a tax-sheltering — I mean charity-focused — non-profit entity, into a for-profit company named PGA Tour Enterprises.

SSG is a consortium of titans of North American sport that includes, among others, the owners of the Boston Red Sox, Boston Celtics, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Falcons.

So, they’re stupid rich, but not Saudi rich.

Half of that $3B is going into player equity grants to give players ownership in the new company. It will further enrich — or make whole, depending who you’re listening to — those who chose to stay on the PGA Tour while also (they hope) limiting further defections to LIV Golf.

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A recently leaked memo to players outlined how that money will work, with the main takeaway being that the biggest, best and most popular stars will get most of it.

We also know that negotiations for further investment from the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) remain ongoing.

The Saudis for years have been throwing money into worldwide sports such as Formula One and soccer in an effort to either a) diversify and modernize their economy to secure a future as leaders in the post-fossil fuel world; or b) distract from the atrocities of its regime while enmeshing themselves in the fabric of popular culture in the Western world; or c) a bit of a) and a lot of b).

Despite all their investment, one nut the Saudis haven’t successfully cracked is a seat at the table of major American sports. If anything, the addition of SSG only makes the Saudis more excited about a possible deal since it brings NFL owners into their orbit.

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The original “deadline” for a deal between the PGA Tour and PIF was Dec. 31, 2023, but both sides agreed to an extension and reportedly are hopeful a deal can be reached by spring.

Which brings us to our crystal golf ball and trying to guess what the future may hold. Here are a few possible scenarios:

NO DEAL

Let’s call this the buzzkill scenario and get it out of the way. No deal would see both the PGA Tour and LIV Golf continue their war, while the golf world remains fractured.

The biggest loser in this scenario would be the fans, who long ago were shoved to the back seat. This scenario has gained some steam recently in the wake of the $3B investment from SSG.

Jordan Spieth put this on the record last week at Pebble Beach when asked about a potential deal with PIF: “I don’t think that it’s needed,” he said. “I think the positive thing would be a unification … but the idea is that we have a strategic partner that allows the PGA Tour to go forward the way it’s operating right now without anything else.”

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The hubris of the PGA Tour and its players is a major reason for golf’s current reality, so we can’t eliminate the possibility that, armed with new leverage from the SSG deal, the tour and its members are willing to go it alone and hope the Saudis lose interest in LIV Golf before golf fans gain an interest in LIV Golf.

If this happens we can look forward to fewer compelling tournaments, more petty sniping back and forth, and maybe even some renewed lawsuits. What fun!

DEAL

This scenario would see a deal reached between the PGA Tour, PIF and Europe’s DP World Tour.

Since we are in the dark on specifics, let’s assume a similar $3B investment is made by the Saudis. This scenario would arm PGA Tour Enterprises with a $6-billion fund to (hopefully) figure out a future for professional golf that would produce an ideal product for fans and re-unite the world’s best players, all while expanding the bottom line to keep investors happy (read: richer).

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For some, the obvious pitfall of this is getting into bed with the Saudis, but since the good ship ‘moral high ground’ sailed on June 6 with the framework deal, we’ll ignore that and look at two further scenarios:

WORLD TOUR

The idea of a grand world tour has been floated for decades by numerous golf minds, including, quite famously, Greg Norman.

With the sport being more global than ever and with top players coming from all corners of the earth, it may finally be time to give this a legitimate shot.

Bringing LIV players back into the fold, while potentially adding a team element to a more global PGA Tour schedule is a possibility, although one fraught with major logistical challenges and possible anti-trust challenges.

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Rory McIlroy has recently been a proponent of a similar but slightly different solution: “I think it has to be global in nature and, to me, you need to figure out a structure where all these other tours feed into that so it gives people a chance to come up.

“A bit like Champions League in football. It’s like the best of the best in Europe, and then all of the other leagues feed up into it.

“I think everyone needs to start thinking more globally around it but globally in a holistic way but not really like this tour, that tour and another tour.”

McIlroy’s opinion on things has changed dramatically in recent months and he recently went as far as to say LIV players should be able to return to the PGA Tour without penalty. He has left his board position as a PGA Tour Player Director and, according to AP’s Doug Ferguson, he has also removed himself from a group chat of PGA Tour superstars.

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There is zero chance that a PGA Tour flush with $6B would agree to feed into a tour by any other name. But a wildly re-imagined global schedule with a potential format tweak here and there is an option, albeit a fabulously complicated one.

FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS

This post-deal scenario would see the PGA Tour and LIV Golf continue running as separate entities, but with some mutually beneficial perks.

As far as we know, nobody is considering this plan, but we can only hope they all get together and read this.

Under the PGA Tour Enterprises parent company, LIV Golf could get the much-needed exposure and legitimacy of the tour’s broadcast partners. “LIV Golf — a PGA Tour Enterprises Production” could be the first step in softening a fractured fan base.

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But that’s not even close to the most interesting part.

The most exciting part of this scenario would see a crossover between players of each tour.

Unfortunately, the lamest part of LIV Golf is what was supposed to be its greatest strength — the team competition.

It’s almost comical to listen to the broadcast try to get us to care that the Fireballs are two strokes out of a podium finish with three holes to go. Anyone stating they are deeply invested in the team standings is either a troll, a bot, or a maniac.

But, what if every LIV event featured two teams from the PGA Tour. For the sake of avoiding more stupid names, let’s call them PGA Tour 1 and PGA Tour 2.

If you want to add spice to the team competition, how about watching Spieth, Thomas, Scheffler and Fowler try to knock the Four Aces off the podium. Perhaps four of the eight players can be hand-picked through sponsor’s exemptions or a monthly leaderboard of the silly Player Impact Program, and the other four spots can be earned through qualifying at PGA tour events.

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All eight players would be in the individual tournament as well and qualify to win LIV’s over-sized purses.

Not only would this go a long way in fixing the team competition, but it would add plenty of competitive zeal to a LIV Golf league that has had a hard time capturing the imagination of a broad swath of golf fans.

On the other side, the PGA Tour would open eight spots in each signature event for LIV players. The depth of top players on the PGA Tour took a hit with LIV defections and this would instantly remedy that problem.

Again, we could make it four sponsor’s exemptions and the top four finishers from the previous LIV event.

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This would also have the added benefit of allowing LIV golfers to accumulate world ranking points if that bugaboo isn’t settled anytime soon. It could even work as a path back to the PGA Tour with LIV golfers who accumulate enough FedEx Cup points in a season becoming eligible to cross back over.

It has become obvious in recent years that there are different types of golf fans who want different products.

This idea would require some schedule changes, but it doesn’t turn its nose up at the notion that there could be a newer, more exciting way to bring world-class golf to fans. It adds entertainment and increases competition, all while likely avoiding anti-trust issues.

Is it crazy? Definitely.

But waiting for the people who got us into this mess to successfully re-imagine pro golf might be even crazier.

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