Erie County could decide electoral fate of the United States

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ERIE, Pa. — Nostalgia is on the menu at the Oasis Tiki Bar.

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For these folks, the past is the present. The shuttered bar where one guy met his wife, closed churches where they were altar boys and the condemned schools where they once romped.

Like a lot of other places in the Rust Belt, this city of 95,000 on the south shore of Lake Erie has seen better days. De-industrialization on a massive scale from the late 1970s onward has hammered the Gem City.

But Erie is now due for its star turn. The city and county of the same name may well determine who becomes president of the United States.

Pennsylvania is famously one of the few remaining swing states and Erie swings more than most. President Joe Biden took the county in 2020, it was Donald Trump’s in 2016.

Now, Trump and Democratic rival Kamala Harris are pinning their White House hopes on Pennsylvania.

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For retired cop Richard Ficher, 69, there are only two issues: The economy and the border.

“Under the Democrats, the economy has suffered and they’ve spent money on really ridiculous things like sex changes for people in prison if they want it,” Ficher said, adding that the political system was “breaking down.”

Emphasizing that he is a political independent, Ficher said he wanted to hear more of what Robert F. Kennedy had to say, but he was barred from the debates.

“I wanted to hear his views and the truth is I don’t like Trump or Harris. Trump’s an a–hole and Kamala is an idiot,” he told the Toronto Sun. “Trump going on Twitter all the time diminished him and, more importantly, it diminished the presidency.”

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That said, Ficher said he’s voting for Trump, particularly because he’s less willing to jump into foreign conflicts.

“But don’t stab Ukraine in the back,” he said. “Under him, the economy was great. Too many people are looking at his personality. There is far too much animosity and it has to end.”

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Behind the bar, Kaitlyn Dolka, 36, keeps her cards close to her chest. This is a side gig. By day, she’s an adjunct professor at a local university.

“It’s going to be pretty close. I’m pretty unsure about Erie, but I think Harris will win by a slim margin and I’ll be voting for her,” Dolka said.

Reproductive rights and a crumbling of the wall between church and state are her primary concerns. A self-described Christian and a gun owner (“I have a small .22-calibre handgun”), she also believes Trump floating the idea of tariffs will harm the country.

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“I don’t think he’s good for the country and he killed the bipartisan border bill. Tim Walz sealed the deal for me,” Dolka said. “I could easily vote for a felon since that’s part of my work, just not this one.”

She glumly added: “I have a feeling that Erie is going to go red. I’m more afraid about what will happen after election day. Hopefully, we can all take a deep breath.”

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It was their grandkids that brought Erie natives Mark and Dale Fisher home after eight years in San Antonio. Mark is a fourth-generation organ and pipe tuner for church organs.

Erie’s population has fallen from 138,000 in 1960 to 95,000 today. As a result of the shuttered factories, people left town and churches saw their flocks obliterated, forcing them to close their doors.

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In Texas, there’s a church on every corner, Mark said, so the Fishers moved south.

“We’re both Trump supporters. As much of an a–hole as he is, we both feel as though his policies are best for our country,” Mark, 61, said.

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Dale chimed in: “We were in a much better position when he was president.”

Both agreed that the economy and illegal immigration are the most pressing issues facing the U.S.

“We’re not against immigration, it’s what built this county,” Mark said. “It has to be done legally.”

As for what will happen on Nov. 5, Dale believes Harris will get more votes than Trump.

“Back in 2020, you’d drive around Erie County and all you saw were Trump signs. There’s hardly anything now, it’s more Harris, but Trump might still take Erie, it’s just so close,” Mark said.

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Jeff Green, 60, has never voted in his life. He does not intend to start this election cycle.

“I wouldn’t give a f— if I didn’t have to, but that man’s out there,” he said, referring to Trump.

Following the Fishers’ departure from the watering hole, Green said: “They are a perfect example of very nice people who are oblivious to racial stereotypes.”

Again, the spectre of a second Trump presidency rears its head. He cites the public letter from 100 high-ranking Republicans citing their reasons for voting for Harris.

“My whole thing is common sense, but I think at the end of the day Trump is going to win here in Erie,” Green said.

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One patron summed up the mood perfectly as he exited the bar for a cigarette.

He said: “Me? I just wanna shoot myself.”

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X: @HunterTOSun

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