A day before the final phase of polling, chips were down on Thursday, with markets falling over 150 points to the day’s low of 22,540.90. Over the last five sessions, Nifty has corrected by 427 points or nearly 2%.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) Chairman & Co-Founder Raamdeo Agrawal said that post-election will be a “very interesting time” though things may have extended a little bit and it is quite possible that the next quarter or two could be slow.
Even if the markets were to correct by 10-15% in this period, he would not mind them correcting 10% further. “…that absolutely is like it is a ground zero and then we start with a new administration and new thought process and new 100 days, new ambitions of the government, new ministers and they will come and run for their targets and things like that and then the new energy in the economy will also come,” the MOFSL analyst said as he expects markets to accelerate to the new highs.
Mark Mobius, Chairman, Mobius Emerging Opportunities Fund also does not doubt that the correction will happen if the outcome be not as per Street expectations. In his view, Indian markets are due for a correction having gone too far too soon. A correction of 15-20% will be normal on the back of election results, Mobius said. Notwithstanding the outcome, he does not see overall growth taking a hit, arguing corrections will be a great time to buy. “Nobody can time it, that is the problem. So, if you want to be exposed to the market you have got to be exposed and you have got to be in the market but maybe keep some cash on the side in the event of a correction where you can buy at much lower prices,” Mobius said.Agrawal said markets are deriving their strength from a new class of investors who invest through the SIP (systematic investment plan) route. “They must make sure that the market should not shake their confidence. They must continue with the subscription of the SIP. Even if the market goes down, whatever happens, or goes down for the next 2-3 months, they must continue because it is very important in SIP that you do not break the subscription in a bad market,” the MOFSL Chairman said. Contribution through SIPs increased from Rs 1 lakh crore in 2019-20 to Rs 1.99 lakh crore in 2023-24, leading to a higher share of equity assets.
While fear indicator India VIX was down by 2% on Thursday and was hovering near the 24 levels, it could go up to 30, analysts have told ETMarkets. The volatility index is already up 122% in the last month, riding on lower-than-expected voter turnout in the initial phases and concerns in some quarters over the likelihood of an unfavourable outcome for the NDA government.
Abhay Agarwal, Founder & Fund Manager, Piper Serica views volatile environments as the best friends of long-term investors as they present a time to investors to latch on to “very good opportunities” to buy high-quality stocks at reasonable valuations.
Commenting on the current mood, he thinks this market is not for bottom fishing or bargain hunting. “This is a market where once the event is over, people will refocus on earnings, refocus on growth, refocus on India’s long-term economic potential and the resultant expansion in market cap due to that and which companies will benefit the most,” this analyst said.
On the contrary, Dipan Mehta, Director, at Elixir Equities recommends investors remain light. “I just want to go very light in this election season and any positions I am not sure about, any investments I am not completely confident about, and now that the earning season is over and done with, we have greater clarity on the prospects of all the companies, so from that point of view it is better to be cautious. And if the results are good, you will have the whole year to profit. But if it is bad, exit will be very difficult,” Mehta said.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
