Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis faces a moment of truth in the Iowa caucuses Monday after making the Hawkeye State the paramount priority in his presidential bid.
Despite investing nearly everything in Iowa, polls show DeSantis has his work cut out for him. A Suffolk University Political Research Center poll released Thursday showed former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley topping DeSantis in Iowa by 7 points. Former President Trump continues to lead the field with 54 percent support.
However, caucuses are already unpredictable events, and coupled with the inclement weather expected in the state, DeSantis’s team says they are moving forward.
“It’s like an NFL season,” said David Polyansky, deputy campaign manager for DeSantis. “You have game after game. Iowa is the first game. It deservedly gets all of the attention, because it’s the first one on the calendar, but on that night, we’re all going to pick up and fly out of here and go campaign elsewhere,” he continued, noting DeSantis’s participation the CNN town hall in Manchester, N.H., set for Tuesday.
“We keep playing,” he added.
On Friday, the DeSantis campaign said the governor will head straight to South Carolina following the Iowa caucuses to telegraph to Haley that he is working to have a good showing in her home state. But DeSantis also has an uphill climb in the Palmetto State, where Trump leads with 53.6 percent support, followed by Haley at 25.2 percent. DeSantis clocks in at 9.4 percent.
And there are questions about how DeSantis would be able to continue if the polls coming out of Iowa are correct.
“It’s make-or-break on Monday,” said Jimmy Centers, an Iowa-based Republican strategist.
DeSantis has touted going to all 99 counties in the state and has precinct captains for every caucus location in Iowa. His wife, Florida first lady Casey DeSantis, knocked on the 3 millionth door for the pro-DeSantis super PAC Never Back Down earlier this week. On top of that, DeSantis has received the coveted endorsements of Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) and evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats.
“That’s no easy feat, and in a normal year, without a former president on the ballot, that would be the gold standard for a caucus organization,” Centers said. “If he comes in third, and Ambassador Haley surges to that second place, it’s going to be really tough for him to march on, especially given what the polling looks like in New Hampshire for him right now.”
“If not here, then where?” he added.
The Hill/Decision Desk HQ average in Iowa shows Trump leading with 54.4 percent support, followed by Haley at 17.4 percent and DeSantis at 15.9 percent. The polls are even bleaker for DeSantis in New Hampshire, where Trump leads with 42 percent support. Haley trails at 30.9 percent, and could benefit from the suspension of the campaign of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who clocked in at 11.4 percent. DeSantis comes in fourth place in New Hampshire at 6.6 percent.
“I think he’s going to exceed expectations, but I’m sober about what the polls say,” said Dan Eberhart, a DeSantis donor. “I think if someone tells you they think he’s going to finish first, they’re not paying attention.”
One potentially daunting factor for both the DeSantis and Haley campaigns is whether Trump can cross the 50-percent threshold on caucus night, as polls have predicted he will be able to. However, others argue the gap between the candidates in the final results will be the most important factor.
“I don’t see the 50 percent number mattering so much,” Eberhart said. “Trump needs to stop DeSantis or Haley from having any momentum coming out of Iowa. So if there’s a clear story, ‘DeSantis overperforms’ or ‘Haley beats DeSantis’ or something that creates momentum for one of those two, that’s where I think the loss for Trump is.”
DeSantis’s allies also argue that a strong enough finish in Iowa, whether it is first or second, could be enough to propel him in New Hampshire and South Carolina.
“The desired outcome for the DeSantis campaign would be to leave Iowa with the perception that it’s a two-person race between DeSantis and Trump,” said Justin Sayfie, a Florida-based Republican strategist.
“The X-factor there is what impact does a strong performance in Iowa have on the perceived strength of his candidacy with New Hampshire primary voters,” he said.
At an event put on by Never Back Down in the Des Moines suburb of Clive, DeSantis’s supporters generally expressed skepticism about the polls.
“The polls are usually wrong,” said Ron Griener, an Ames resident who changed his support from Trump to DeSantis over a month ago. “Remember Howard Dean? The scream heard around the world,” he added, referring to the former Vermont governor’s fiery address after coming in third place in the Iowa Democratic caucuses in 2004. Dean was the front-runner in the polls ahead of the caucuses.
