The Cubs have expressed interest in Blue Jays catcher Danny Jansen, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. It’s unclear how serious discussions between the sides have become at this point.
It would hardly be a surprise to see Toronto part ways with Jansen prior to the deadline on July 30. The club has experienced a freefall in the standings that has seen the club drop to just 43-52, 14 games out of the AL East and 9.5 games out of a playoff spot. That massive deficit in the standings has left the club’s playoff odds (according to Fangraphs) at just 1.6%. Given those dismal odds, it’s only natural that the club is reportedly “expressing openness” to moving on from rental players this summer.
Jansen, 29, is one of the club’s more intriguing rental players. Initially drafted in the 16th round back in 2013 by the Blue Jays, the Wisconsin native made his big league debut with Toronto back in 2018 and generally struggled at the plate early in his career. He carried a lackluster .208/.297/.370 slash line (79 wRC+) into the 2021 season. Fortunately, in 2021 Toronto began to lean less heavily on Jansen behind the plate due to the arrival of youngster Alejandro Kirk. From 2021-23, Jansen enjoyed a resurgence on offense while being counted on for an average of just 76 games a year. In 754 trips to the plate across those three seasons, he saw his wRC+ jump to 121 as he slashed a solid .237/.317/.487 while clubbing 43 home runs.
Early in the 2024 campaign, Jansen appeared to be on track for the best season of his career as he was slashing an incredible .287/.371/.535 through the end of May. He struck out just 15.5% of the time in those 116 trips to the plate while walking at a 12.1% clip and crushing five homers. Paired with generally strong defensive grades behind the plate throughout his career, that figured to make him an extremely attractive free agent this winter, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored for Front Office subscribers at the time.
Things have come off the rails a bit for Jansen since then, however. In 91 trips to the plate since the start of June, Jansen has posted a lackluster .141/.253/.218 across 26 games. An eye-popping .164 BABIP that’s all but certain to enjoy some positive regression indicates that there’s some reason for optimism when looking at Jansen’s numbers during this recent slump, as does the fact that Jansen’s plate discipline numbers (18.9% strikeout rate, 11% walk rate) remain impressive. Even so, it’s hard to imagine the Jays getting anywhere close to the trade return they might have had Jansen maintained his early season production now that he’s hitting a roughly league average .223/.319/.397 (103 wRC+) for the season.
Still, it’s not hard to see why the Cubs would be interested in Jansen’s services. The club has struggled somewhat on offense this year with a collective wRC+ of 102 that ranks 16th in the majors this year, even in spite of excellent seasons from corner bats Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ and Michael Busch. The most obvious culprit for those struggles at the dish in Chicago is the players they’re using behind it, as Cubs catchers have slashed a pathetic .180/.227/.264 this year. That translates to a wRC+ of 39 that ranks 29th in the majors ahead of only the lowly Marlins.
It’s possible the Cubs would be willing to stomach that brutal offense production if they were getting elite defense behind the plate, but youngster Miguel Amaya has been worth -2 runs according to Statcast’s Fielding Run Value, and veteran Yan Gomes was performing even worse before being replaced by Tomas Nido after he was released by the Mets last month. Nido has looked good behind the plate but has hit a ghastly .135/.154/.189 in 13 games with the Cubs. He doesn’t have much of a track record to lean on, either, as a seven-game stint in 2020 is the only time in his career he’s posted a wRC+ higher than 86.
Those woes behind the plate make the Cubs an obvious fit for Jansen’s services, although it’s fair to wonder if Chicago will be in position to buy by the time the deadline rolls around. After all, the team is currently five games below .500 (46-51) and in dead last in the NL Central. They’re only 4.5 games out of the final NL Wild Card spot, but Fangraphs gives them playoff odds of just 8.7%. While that’s substantially higher than the aforementioned odds Toronto has, it still suggests a postseason berth is a remote possibility for Chicago, and it would hardly be a surprise to see them pivot towards selling if they struggle coming out of the All Star break.
Should the Cubs wind up buying, Jansen isn’t the only Blue Jays hitter the club has reported interest in. Last month, it was reported that Chicago was having internal discussions about the possibility of pursuing star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. if the Blue Jays decided to sell. Of course, that reporting came on the heels of GM Ross Atkins very plainly saying that dealing Guerrero, who is controllable through the end of the 2025 campaign, “doesn’t make any sense” for the team to do. While it’s at least theoretically possible the club’s front office changes its stance before the deadline, that possibility seems remote at best as things stand.
