(NewsNation) — The effects of global warming and extreme heat will cause food prices and overall inflation to increase with climate change, according to a new study published in the journal Communications, Earth and Environment.
Researchers examined monthly price tags of food and other goods, temperatures and other climate factors in 121 nations since 1996. They calculated that “weather and climate shocks” are expected to cause the cost of food to rise 1.5 to 1.8 percentage points in about a decade. Additionally, it may rise higher in places with hotter climates like the Middle East, according to the study.
That translates to an increase in overall inflation of 0.8 to 0.9 percentage points by 2035, just caused by climate change and extreme weather, the study said.
While the number may look small, banks and economists find them significant, said Max Kotz, the study’s lead author and scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.
“The physical impacts of climate change are going to have a persistent effect on inflation,” Kotz said. “This is really from my perspective another example of one of the ways in which climate change can undermine human welfare, economic welfare.”
The study reveals researchers predict the climate-triggered part of inflation will grow with global food prices, increasing 2.2 to 4.3 percentage points annually by 2060.
Kotz and the European Bank examined 20,000 data points to find a real-world causal link between extreme weather, especially heat and rising prices.
The study points to 2022’s European heat wave as a good example. The high heat cut food supplies, causing food prices to rise two-thirds of a percentage point and overall inflation to jump about one-third of a percentage point, Kotz said. Prices rose even higher in Romania, Hungary and parts of southern Europe.
Kotz said the analysis found the inflationary pressure on food and other prices is worse in areas and seasons that are hotter. So, Europe and North America may not be hit as hard as the Global South, which could afford it less, he said.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
