Good luck trying to figure out the CFL East this year.
With one new head coach, at least two new opening-day starting quarterbacks and plenty of player movement, the division appears to be wide open.
It looked like the Toronto Argonauts were headed for a second Grey Cup in a row last season after finishing 16-2, but disaster struck in the East Final when the team became a turnover machine in a stunning loss to the visiting Montreal Alouettes.
The Als then went on to upset the Winnipeg Blue Bombers in the Grey Cup, capping the year with eight wins in a row (five regular season, three playoffs).
Montreal looked to be nothing more than a middling team before catching fire when it counted, so we’ll see if the Als can play at the same high level for an entire campaign.
The Alouettes went 0-7 against the league’s three top teams last year — the Argos, Blue Bombers and B.C. Lions — before their playoff run.
The Argos, meanwhile, likely have to figure out a way to play at least half their season without star quarterback Chad Kelly.
With the season opener set for Thursday when Winnipeg hosts Montreal in a Grey Cup rematch, here’s our best guess at how the East could play out this year. Teams are listed in order of predicted finish.
1. Montreal Alouettes
Last season: 11-7, second in East, beat Winnipeg to win Grey Cup.
Head coach: Jason Maas (50-40 in five seasons in CFL, with first campaign in Montreal ending with a title).
The skinny
With ownership in flux prior to last season, the Alouettes were limited in what they could do in free agency.
That didn’t faze GM Danny Maciocia, who managed to cobble together a very competitive team and then made key in-season moves to put the Als over the top after Pierre Karl Péladeau purchased the team.
Maciocia’s choice at quarterback, exiled Roughrider Cody Fajardo, may never be considered the best pivot in the league, but he was clutch when it counted at playoff time. His bounce-back was at least somewhat reminiscent of Zach Collaros, whose future in the league appeared in jeopardy before Winnipeg acquired him in a late-season trade in 2019. Now, Collaros is one of the top quarterbacks in the league.
Fajardo loses his top receiving weapon in Austin Mack, who has signed with the Atlanta Falcons, so other players will have to step up.
Same goes at running back, with former star William Stanback now a B.C. Lion.
The team should remain strong on defence. Defensive lineman Shawn Lemon remains eligible while he appeals a gambling suspension and safety Marc-Antoine Dequoy is one of the best Canadians in the league.
2. Toronto Argonauts
Last season: 16-2, first in East, lost to Montreal in division final.
Head coach: Ryan Dinwiddie (36-14 in three CFL seasons, all with Toronto. Won Grey Cup in 2022).
The skinny
Despite their unexpected playoff exit last season, the Argos likely would have been considered the team to beat in the East this year before star Kelly was suspended for at least nine games for violating the league’s gender-based violence policy.
Kelly was the CFL’s most outstanding player last season and with the suspension being handed down so close to the start of this campaign, Toronto didn’t have time to make a major quarterback move. There has been no word on if Kelly plans to appeal the suspension.
Cameron Dukes appears to be in line to be Toronto’s starter after backing up Kelly last season. He did look good in limited time, but it remains to be seen how he’ll fare under a heck of a lot more pressure. Veteran Nick Arbuckle, who started Ottawa’s season opener last year, and sophomore Bryan Scott are the other QB options.
Dukes should be helped by a dominant offensive line that returns intact. At running back, the Argos have signed ex-Calgary Stampeders star Ka’Deem Carey.
Toronto has strong special teams after picking up dangerous return man Janarion Grant following a strong run in Winnipeg. Former NFL kicker Lirim Hajrullahu also is a weapon.
The defence has lost some key pieces, including reigning rookie of the year Qwan’tez Stiggers to the New York Jets in the NFL Draft. Defensive co-ordinator Corey Mace also is gone after getting the head coaching job in Saskatchewan.
It feels like it might be tough for this defence to really dominate games early as Dukes grows into his role.
3. Ottawa Redblacks
Last season: 4-14, last in East, missed playoffs.
Head coach: Bob Dyce (8-23 in three seasons in the CFL, including last year and the final four games of 2022 with Ottawa).
The skinny
A great success for four years after a predictably rough 2014 expansion season, the Redblacks have not been able to maintain that momentum.
Ottawa is a pathetic 14-54 the past four seasons, which means the heat is on GM Shawn Burke and Dyce to get this thing turned around.
A major part of the problem has been a lack of production at QB since Trevor Harris departed after the 2018 season.
The Redblacks hope they’ve found their man in former Blue Bombers backup Dru Brown, acquired in an off-season deal. Brown showed well in limited time with the Bombers the past three years and the people in Winnipeg’s building rave about the Californian.
We’ll see if he can make the jump from promising backup to top starter. It’s not easy. Arbuckle (now with the Argos for a second go-around) and Jake Meier (trying to take that next step in Calgary) are recent examples of guys who have struggled to make that transition.
The good news for the Redblacks is they play in what appears to be the weaker division and it just seems unlikely that a team can be terrible for five seasons in a row.
Ottawa’s defence was a strength last season and the Redblacks added a top player in former Argos linebacker Adarius Pickett.
The Redblacks also have one of the most dangerous returners in the league in DeVonte Dedmon, who was excellent in the pre-season after missing most of last season with a shoulder injury.
Brown has three key returning receivers in Jaelon Acklin, Justin Hardy and Bralon Addison back for another season and the Redblacks also have Dominique Rhymes back for a second go-around.
4. Hamilton Tiger-Cats
Last season: 8-10, third in East, lost to Montreal in division semifinal.
Head coach: Scott Milanovich (First year as Ticats head coach. 43-47 in five CFL seasons with Toronto from 2012-16, highlighted by a Grey Cup in ‘12).
The skinny
The Ticats made major changes in the off-season with former head coach Orlondo Steinauer becoming president of football operations, former offensive play-caller Milanovich becoming head coach and assistant GM Ed Hervey becoming GM.
It’s all in a bid to get the team its first Grey Cup since 1999.
The Ticats appeared close to getting over the hump in 2019 and ’21, but fell short against the Blue Bombers in both Grey Cup games. Since then, the team has taken a step back.
The Ticats brought in former Stampeders star Bo Levi Mitchell as their quarterback last year, but he had continued injury problems and was inconsistent.
What he has left at age 34 is the big question. He should be helped by working with Milanovich, a former quarterback who has done well with veteran and young QBs. After a run in the NFL as an assistant coach, Milanovich returned to the CFL last year with Hamilton. He never actually coached a game after being hired as head coach by Edmonton because of the COVID-19 cancelled season in 2020.
Hamilton has a promising backup QB in Taylor Powell and one of the best running backs in the league in James Butler. At receiver, the Ticats have a strong 1-2 punch in Tim White and Steven Dunbar Jr.
Defensively, mainstay linebacker Simoni Lawrence and defensive lineman Ted Laurent have retired. The team also got bad news in the off-season when Canadian linebacker Jordan Williams, acquired in an off-season trade with the Argos, also retired.
Hamilton is hoping for big contributions from three former Argos defenders who made the move down the Queen Elizabeth Way this off-season — defensive back Jamal Peters and defensive linemen Brandon Barlow and Dewayne Hendrix.
