Can Oilers break same vicious cycle that has sunk them before?

EDMONTON — “It’s at least 90 per cent mental. Maybe more.”

Stuart Skinner was talking about:

A — The issues in his game.

B — Surviving a playoff series between two Western Canadian rivals.

C — Avoiding the urge to delete your X account.

D — Connor McDavid’s crosscheck survival strategy.

Here we are, folks, at the midway point of this fantastic, emotional series. A social media spectacle that has taken over our country in all rinks West of Moose Jaw, a rivalry that will spill over to the golf courses and beaches of the Okanagan this summer.

Stress?

My wife has burned through a box of church candles — and her team is down, two games to one. Even the Big Guy isn’t playing ball.

Skinner stiffed the post-game media for the first time in his NHL career — for which he apologized on Tuesday — and his coach Kris Knoblauch awoke after Game 3 as a clone of Todd McLellan.

Or Dave Tippett. Or Jay Woodcroft.

You know, one of those old Oilers coaches who fell into the trap of playing two players nearly half the game while the bottom half of his roster ate popcorn and bought 50/50 tickets all night long.

Inside his own head, Knoblauch knows you can’t win a playoff series by playing the McDavid line as much as he is. But his team has been trailing for most of the past two games, and, well, “You’ve got an offensive zone faceoff, with Draisaitl, McDavid. and Hyman sitting on the bench. It’s pretty tough not to say, ‘You guys go out for that faceoff.’

“Hopefully the temptation is alleviated with a two- or three-goal lead.”

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It’s always been a chicken and egg thing here in Edmonton, a fowl scenario that a deeper roster was supposed to alleviate.

You want that lead so you can play the depth guys more, but the quickest way to that lead is to play McDavid’s line. So the depth guys languish, don’t get much ice time, and when they do they aren’t so productive because they have barely broken a sweat.

So the coach says, “Well, I’m not getting any Bottom 6 goals. Better call on Connor.”

It’s a vicious cycle, not unlike the one churning between Skinner’s ears right now. His game melted down a year ago in Round 2, was supposed to be more consistent this time around, and so far is not.

“To be super honest, I don’t think it’s anything technical,” Skinner said. “I think it’s just me being able to find saves at key times, and I haven’t been able to do that.”

The guy at the other end arrived at the party five minutes ago, and Arturs Silovs has established himself as the best goalie in this series thus far. Meanwhile, Skinner has watched his career playoff save percentage plummet to .818, a damning assessment of his post-season work through two springs.

“The numbers don’t lie. They’re saying what they say — well, they lie a little bit — but it is what it is,” he allowed. “Do I feel like I’m playing at those numbers? A little bit. Have some good goals gone in? Yeah. Have some bad goals going in? Yes.”

Knoblauch won’t say who starts in Game 4, but it’s likely a coin flip between Skinner and backup Calvin Pickard. Jack Campbell is not in the picture — he’s the No. 3 in case of injury.

Skinner promises his ‘A’ game is sooooo close to arriving.

“As close as one per cent… and we could be laughing here, talking about how great I am,” he chuckled. “I’ve got to be able to find that one per cent, that one more save.”

The good news is, he’s been here before. The bad news is, there are few signs — at least externally — that he is any better for it.

“I’m very grateful for those experiences,” Skinner said, “so I’m not an absolute mess right now.”

Speaking of messes, McDavid took a wicked Nikita Zadorov crosscheck in the back ($5,000 fine), and a toothsome Carson Soucy crosscheck in the face (one-game suspension) within about a half-second of each other after the Game 3 final buzzer.

The next morning he was chipper and — to his credit — did not waste any words complaining about the mugging.

“It’s a tough game. They’ve got big d-men that make it hard on you,” McDavid reasoned. “They play a physical brand of hockey and it’s fun to be a part of. It’s fun.”

It didn’t look like fun, we mentioned.

“It’s a fun series to be a part of,” he stressed. “Two Canadian teams going at it, a lot of passion. It’s just part of a heated series.”

Of all the people around this series from an Edmonton perspective — the goalie, the fans, the coach, the guy who sells church candles ­— McDavid seems the least stressed of all.

The best player, the most pressure, the least stress.

“We’ve got all the faith in the world,” McDavid said. “Stu has always bounced back well, our group has always bounced back well, and I would expect Stu and our group to respond.”

Chilled out.

Just like the rest of us, right?

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