The major parties should prioritise calm and rational conversations on net migration to prevent the next federal election from descending into “Trump-style name calling and civil unrest”, the former deputy secretary of the immigration department has warned.
Both Labor and the Coalition have pledged to reduce long-term net migration in the lead-up to the next federal election. The Albanese government’s plan will target international students with a proposal to cap the number each university can enrol from January 2025.
Meanwhile, the opposition leader, Peter Dutton, has promised to slash permanent migration levels by 25% from 185,000 to 140,000 for the first two years, followed by 150,000 then 160,000 as part of a four-year plan aimed at tackling the country’s housing crisis.
Abul Rizvi, an immigration policy expert who was deputy secretary of the immigration department until 2007, said a carefully managed migration program was “fundamental” to Australia’s “economic prosperity, to filling skills gaps, to delivering essential services”, and that it affects nearly every area of public policy and could have consequences on social cohesion.
In his speech to the National Press Club on Wednesday, Rizvi said he was concerned about an election fought on immigration levels, describing both major party policies as examples of “short-termism”.
“The danger with an election fought on immigration levels, as many past Australian politicians on both sides have recognised, is that it could degenerate into Trump-style name calling and civil unrest, including at polling centres,” Rizvi said.
The former top bureaucrat disagreed with Labor’s approach to cap international students, labelling it as “unsustainable” and counterintuitive in a market economy.
Rizvi, however, believed the Coalition’s approach would be even worse.
“But if Labor’s approach is unsustainable, the Coalition’s would be pure chaos. They are apparently proposing an overall student cap which would allow each provider to fight it out, year by year, before an annual cap is reached,” he said.
“Chaos would ensue before the cap is reached earlier and earlier each year because of the buildup of a massive backlog. Both approaches represent short-termism ahead of an election.”
Instead, Rizvi proposed introducing a minimum university entrance exam score cut off in line with those for domestic students.
“What we need is a measured, long-term approach where registered education providers in each sector compete on a level playing field for students who have a sufficiently strong academic record,” he said.
“That should be determined by government to limit the incentive for educational institutions to put tuition fee revenue above academic excellence.
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“The university entrance exam score, adjusted as needed, should be the primary means of managing sustainable growth in the industry, not caps.”
He added some concessions might be needed for regional universities but the numbers should be limited.
The number of international students in Australia topped 700,000 for the first time in April, helping drive the number of temporary entrants to 2.8 million, another new record. The government has come under pressure to lower migration numbers, including student arrivals, in a bid to lessen pressure on the housing market.
The education minister, Jason Clare, announced the plan to cap international students in May, adding universities seeking to enrol students over that cap would have to build new student accommodation to “free up pressure on the rental market”.
“International students are an incredibly important part of our economy and our communities, and we need to ensure the sector is set up for the future,” Clare said.
Dutton in his budget reply speech said he approved of Labor’s proposed measure and promised to add “a tiered approach to increasing the student visa application fee”, including slugging students who change providers to “enhance the integrity of the student visa program”.
