Shares fell in Japan, Australia and South Korea, after the US benchmark edged lower to end an eight-day winning streak. Chinese shares may decline after the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 4.1% on Tuesday. Walmart Inc. is seeking to raise up to $3.74 billion by selling its stake in China’s e-commerce firm JD.com Inc.“There was no real news to drive the cross-asset flows, so positioning and liquidity dynamics will likely get the blame,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd. “On net, the risk bulls will feel today’s moves have grazed but the wounds will not cut too deep given many have traded this move well and would be sitting on some good profits in equity indices.”
Aside from flows and positioning, the recent rally was also fueled by bets the Federal Reserve will signal it’s getting closer to cutting rates, leading bond traders to take on record amounts of risk as they anticipate a Treasury market rally.
The dollar steadied after weakening for three sessions as markets await Wednesday’s US payrolls revisions and Jerome Powell’s speech Friday in Jackson Hole for more clues on the amount and timing of the interest-rate reductions. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was down 0.1% to hit its lowest since mid-March.
In Asia, policymakers in Indonesia and Thailand are tipped to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday as they weigh uncertainties over political transitions while awaiting the Fed’s imminent easing. Australian 10-year yields fell five basis points in early trading.
BloombergJapan’s equities fell as a stronger yen hurt exporters. The yen steadied at around 145 against the dollar after rallying Tuesday, as traders await the Bank of Japan governor to speak to parliament on Friday.Chinese property stocks are in focus as the country considers a new funding option for local governments to sell bonds to buy unsold home, after a series of rescue packages failed to prop up the market.
The S&P 500 fell below 5,600 Tuesday as Nvidia Corp. — which had rallied almost 25% in six days — led losses in megacaps. Treasury 10-year yields were little changed after declining six basis points. Brent crude declined a third day on the back of a potential cease-fire in Gaza and mounting concern about the global demand outlook, while gold hit a fresh record high.
Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott says he continues to anticipate ongoing stock-market strength on a near-term basis, but remains on “high alert” for another, potentially bigger corrective wave moving through the August-October time frame.
“So what happens when everything and everyone is teed up to be bullish,” Wantrobski said. “From a timing perspective, we are headed into a window where there may be high probability for a liquidity event to occur — and the charts, trader positioning, and sentiment are all very vulnerable right now in our view. We smell a ‘bull trap’ ahead. But hope we’re wrong.”
Momentum traders and a surge in corporate buybacks promise to drive a US stocks rally over the next four weeks, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Scott Rubner said in a note dated Monday.
Rubner, who correctly predicted a late summer correction and advised in late June to trim exposure in US stocks after July 4, has turned tactically bullish saying current positioning and flows “will act as a tailwind as sellers are out of ammo.”
Bloomberg
