Key events
Crab cakes vs ribs
I’ve often thought to myself, what do I prefer, crab cakes or ribs? You know, I was driving home from Washington DC a few weeks back, and I stopped at this back road seafood hole in the wall joint in Maryland and had a crab cake. And it was pretty good. Simple, but good. But I feel like there’s a ceiling on crab cakes, like there’s a ceiling on hamburgers. How good can a burger really get? How good can a crab cake really be? You can only be blown away so much. But when I was in KC, the ribs. Oh the ribs. I was there for under 24 hours, on a trip that also included a trip to the ER – I was ok, thank you for your concern. But I got KC ribs in, and man, there’s no ceiling on anything with a thick sticky sweet sauce. So BBQ ribs v Baltimore/Maryland crab cakes, it’s ribs in a rout.
Does this mean I should take the points?
Experience factor
Who has the quarterback edge? Patrick Mahomes is 13-3 in the playoffs. Jackson? He’s 2-3. That said, Jackson has never had a team around him like he does now. You could see that Lamar had a look of concern on his face when his team was tied 10-10 with the Texans, but he turned it around and piled on Houston in the second half. It won’t be as easy against KC of course. And Mahomes does have the experience. He faced the toughest road matchup of his career last week, helping his team dispatch a QB on his level in Josh Allen. I doubt he’ll be phased by another road test in Baltimore, though the Ravens defense is ferocious.
So, who has the edge? The future MVP or a guy who has won two Super Bowls? Until someone takes down KC, I’m thinking it has to be Mahomes.
Chris Jones’ money
How effective Chris Jones is today will have a lot to say about how the KC defense holds back Baltimore’s juggernaut offense. Not that a player like Jones needs much motivation, but should his Chiefs find a way past B’more, he’s in line for a tasty $1m check, thanks to an incentive that pays him to reach the Super Bowl. Jones has been gradually clawing back the million bucks in cash he lost after holding out at the start of the season, reaching incentives for playing time and sacks, after begging coach Andy Reid to stay on the field in week 18 to reach his sack goal.
Money aside, Jones knows he’s in for a potentially tough day.
They’ve showed that throughout the year, how competitive they are against the better teams in the league. Look at a team like the 49ers, look at what they did against Miami. They’ve been showing that type of dominance throughout this year, so it’s going to be tough, it’s a challenge, but I’m excited for it.
Jones isn’t wrong – Baltimore has been terrific against the leagues best. They’ve won 14 games this season – 11 of those have come against teams with winning records. So the Ravens didn’t get to the AFC title game by beating up on have nots.
Let’s go!
Hello and welcome to our coverage of the AFC Championship game! It’s good that you turned up, because it’s hard to imagine this matchup not living up to the hype. We’ve lined up the Chiefs, seasoned Super Bowl winners, who have lived in this title game for six years running. And the Ravens, who have the best record football, a future MVP at quarterback and the highest point differential in the NFL. We did this all, just for you. You’re welcome.
It’s going to be great to watch and follow along, but trying to figure out who has the edge has been challenging. Let’s try to break it down some.
The Ravens are at home, always helpful. They’re getting their stellar tight end Mark Andrews back. Lamar Jackson is an elite, do it all quarterback looking to finally break into the big show. Baltimore has a monster defense, one of the best kickers of all-time and a head coach with a Super Bowl ring. While the upstart Texans gave them a run in the divisional round for a half of football, Baltimore ran wild in the second half, cementing a blowout.
The Chiefs need less of an introduction. After a regular season that was less than stellar by their standards, Kansas City is approaching Kansas City levels. Mahomes, who let’s face it, hasn’t been operating on his level, is coming around, having pulled out all the stops on the road in Buffalo last week. That’s some thanks to Rashee Rice, who has become the go-to receiver they lacked earlier in the season. Loved up Travis Kelce also looked a lot more like himself in the last round. the offensive line play has been exceptionally strong. And despite having some banged up key players, Willie Gay, Mike Edwards, por ejemplo, the kids behind them missing have played extremely well.
You know what else is crazy? The Chiefs are getting points, 4.5 of them. We’re talking about a team led by Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, being handed a very decent chunk of points by the oddsmakers. They were given 2.5 on the road last week in Buffalo and look how that turned out. So from a gambling perspective, it seems tough to turn down the points, which seems like a Vegas trap! As to who is going to win the real world match-up, I’m still spinning my wheels.
But what do you think? Why not let me know? Join the show, send me your thoughts and feelings to X at @LengelDavid, or via email. Do it, and I’ll make you famous.
More to come soon. Stick with us!
David will be here shortly. In the meantime, here’s a quick preview of today’s game:
Story of the season: A new hierarchy has been established in the AFC. The Ravens dethroned the Chiefs in the regular season by cooking up a 13-4 record that is even better than it looks when an excusable loss from Tyler Huntley and the backups to Pittsburgh in Week 18 is taken into account. The Chiefs will care little for all that though. Their scratchy run to January still delivered victory in the AFC West as they scraped by thanks in large part to their defense picking up the considerable slack from Patrick Mahomes’ down year. The master quarterback can turn it on like a tap though, and he was close to his best when the Chiefs knocked off the Bills last weekend. He will have to do it all over again if he wants to show the Ravens who the kings of the AFC really are.
What the Chiefs need to do to win: Andy Reid needs to figure out how to maintain offensive efficiency in the face of the NFL’s best defense. Mahomes helped Travis Kelce pop off the stat sheet last week: he scored for the first time in eight games. But Mahomes’ job was made easier because he was targeting the Bills’ depleted linebackers. He will have no such luxury on Sunday. Reid has to be creative in his play calling while leaning on the explosive Isiah Pacheco to keep Mahomes from having to win the game on his own. If the quarterback is improvising to beat the Ravens from the get-go then Mike Macdonald’s defensive scheme, based on confusing the opposition through showing blitz but dropping into coverage and vice versa, could well thrive.
What the Ravens need to do to win: Baltimore have to maintain their defensive ferocity. They smothered CJ Stroud last week, pressuring the quarterback on 51.4% of his dropbacks as he completed 7 of 17 passes for 62 yards under duress. Yes, they recorded zero sacks but the intensity was enough to keep Stroud under lock and key. Even the defensive backs were shutting down trick plays behind the line of scrimmage. Mahomes is unlikely to be as fazed as a rookie like Stroud but if the Ravens direct heat at Kelce then the quarterback will have to go looking for significantly less dangerous receivers. The man who can lead the fight for the Ravens is safety Kyle Hamilton. He has the size at 6ft 4in and 220lbs to stand up to Kelce while positionally he excels at the line of scrimmage. Perfect for covering the tight end’s hunting ground in the middle of the field.
Key player for the Chiefs: Jason Kelce, beer drinker. Forget Taylor Swift, the Chiefs have a new mascot. Travis balled out with big bro in the stands, 40 beers deep, sticking it to Bills fans. Give this man a megaphone, five well-stocked fridges and let him go to work in Baltimore. Kelce, Kelce, KELCE.
Key player for the Ravens: Lamar Jackson, quarterback. “We can’t keep trying to get deep and developing routes because our guys can only block for so long. I gotta move, just gotta get the ball out,” said Jackson to his quarterback coach Tee Martin at half-time after Houston rocked him with two sacks before the break. An average time to throw against the blitz of 3.44sec dropped to 2.02sec in the second half while he pitched a 24-0 shutout. Running, passing, elite reading of the game. MVP.
Prediction: Ravens over Chiefs. The Ravens feel like a team that still have not had to push to the extremes Kansas City had to find to overcome Buffalo, so they should have plenty in the tank to match a Mahomes-led onslaught. Tight end Mark Andrews’ return could be the tipping point. Jackson will reportedly have his red-zone monster back to further split the Chiefs’ defensive priorities, a big boost if the Ravens are pushed into a shootout.
