(NewsNation) — A long-held political truism has been that when the U.S. economy is going well, the president generally gets too much credit, and when things aren’t going well, the president gets too much blame.
But that hasn’t stopped presidents and presidential candidates from claiming that their policies will quickly and effectively turn around bad times. And the 2024 presidential election is no exception.
Both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have made promises and released proposals to improve the U.S. economy, especially when it comes to food prices. Here’s a look at some of their most prominent positions, and how experts view the chances of those stands becoming reality.
Harris: Ban price gouging
Harris has called on Congress to pass a bill to ban price gouging on food, a proposal very close to the bill that Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., introduced earlier this year. It would give the Federal Trade Commission and the states the power to penalize companies that use their power to sell goods “at and excessive price.”
Warren’s bill would also give the FTC the power to define “excessive,” a move that is bound to create partisan controversy. And, with a divided Congress, the Warren bill has little chance of passing this year. Even if Harris wins, political experts believe that Republicans could control both houses of Congress next year.
Trump: Impose tariffs on food imports
“Tariffs are the greatest thing ever invented,” Trump said this earlier this month. As president, he imposed tariffs with a flourish, targeting imported solar panels, steel, aluminum and pretty much everything from China.
Trump insists that tariffs are paid for by foreign countries. In fact, it is importers – American companies – that pay tariffs, and the money goes to the U.S. Treasury. Those companies, in turn, typically pass their higher costs on to their customers in the form of higher prices. That’s why economists say consumers usually end up footing the bill for tariffs.
As president, Trump put a 9% tariff on imported washing machines, which hiked the consumer price of washing machines by 9%, according to Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan.
Harris: Antitrust enforcement
The Biden administration has taken action against what it calls “anticompetitive behavior” in the food industry, which it says has helped drive up food costs. The FTC is trying to stop the $25 billion merger of the two of the country’s biggest grocery store chains, Albertsons and Kroger. The Harris campaign has hired advisers who are tied to Biden’s moves, a signal that Harris will also take an aggressive antitrust stance.
It’s been a long time since the federal government tried to break up monopolies. The 1936 Robinson-Patman Act, which bans suppliers from offering better prices to its bigger customers at the expense of smaller competitors, is still on the books but hasn’t been enforced for many years. But economists say that, even when antitrust action is successful, it would take a long time to have an impact on retail food prices.
Trump: Expand the domestic energy supply
Trump has argued that lower energy costs would be one of several steps, along with lowering taxes and interest rates, that would “quickly bring down prices” for everything, including food. He’s promised to approve more domestic oil drilling, and to bring the price of gasoline down to below $2 a gallon. He has said those moves would “bring down the price of everything from electricity rates to groceries, airfares, and housing costs.”
The U.S. is already producing record amounts of oil and gas, and the Biden administration has approved many new permits to drill on federal land. Economists say that, while energy costs figured in every step of the food supply chain, it’s just one of many factors. Also, the U.S. government can only do so much to influence gas prices, which are mostly shaped by global politics and market factors.
Reality vs. perception
The experts, and many years of history, suggest that U.S. presidents have very little power to immediately influence consumer prices for food and other goods and services. But it looks like most of us believe otherwise.
An August survey conducted by the agriculture departments of Purdue University and the University of Illinois asked this question: Who do you think can help lower retail food prices?
“We find that most respondents thought that political parties could help lower food prices and grocery bills,” the survey authors wrote. “Perhaps not surprisingly in a polarized political environment, most respondents who identified with one of the major parties thought that only their party could lower prices,” they added.
The survey of 1,000 adults around the U.S. found that, among those who prefer Trump, about 65% believe that only Republicans can lower food prices. Among Harris supporters, 50% think that only Democrats can accomplish the task.
