U.S. Vice-President Kamala Harris and former U.S. president Donald Trump are tied among likely voters in North Carolina, while Harris holds a comfortable lead in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, according to two new CNN polls conducted by SSRS.
The North Carolina survey also shows scandal-plagued Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson trailing his Democratic opponent by a wide margin in the state’s gubernatorial race.
Both places could be key to either Harris or Trump winning the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Trump faces limited paths to victory should he fail to hold North Carolina – the state where he earned his slimmest margin of victory in 2020 – and a win in Nebraska’s 2nd District would open up a path for Harris through the northern “blue wall” states even if she fails to carry any of the Sun Belt battlegrounds.
In North Carolina, Harris and Trump stand at 48 per cent each among likely voters. In Nebraska’s 2nd District, the so-called blue dot encompassing Omaha, Harris has 53 per cent to Trump’s 42 per cent, the poll finds.
North Carolina, which narrowly supported Barack Obama in 2008 and has gone red in the past three presidential elections, is a state Democrats hope to make competitive again this year. Nebraska, meanwhile, is one of two states, along with Maine, that splits its Electoral College votes – awarding two to the statewide winner, with the other three awarded separately to the winner of each of the state’s congressional districts.
The Cornhusker State has long been a Republican presidential stronghold, but its 2nd District has twice in recent history awarded its vote to the Democratic nominee, breaking for Obama in 2008 and for Joe Biden in 2020.
The vast majority of North Carolina voters say they’ve made up their minds, and roughly three-quarters of registered voters supporting each of the major candidates say they’re extremely motivated to vote. More than 7 in 10 among both Harris and Trump backers say their choice is a mark of support for their chosen candidate, not just a vote against their opponent. But 12 per cent of likely voters in the state say they could still change their minds about the candidate they’re supporting – more than enough to make a difference in a deadlocked race.
Trump currently leads Harris among White likely voters in North Carolina, 58 per cent to 39 per cent, a narrower margin than his edge over Biden among White voters who turned out in the 2020 election, according to CNN exit polls. White likely voters with college degrees currently favor Harris over Trump by a wide margin, which would mark a shift from a narrow divide among this group four years ago.
Harris leads Trump, 79 per cent to 11 per cent, among Black likely voters, a group that in 2020 made up roughly one-quarter of the state’s electorate. While Harris’ standing among Black likely voters in the poll is currently weaker than the share Biden ended up winning in 2020, that does not reflect significantly increased support for Trump – rather, about one-tenth of Black likely voters currently say they’re supporting a third-party candidate or are unsure of their choice.
Male voters in North Carolina break narrowly toward Trump (51 per cent to 45 per cent) with Harris holding a slight advantage among female voters (50 per cent to 46 per cent), but the gender gap is smaller than that seen in CNN’s most recent national survey.
Down ballot, Harris is significantly outperformed by Democrat Josh Stein, who leads Robinson, the lieutenant governor, 53 per cent to 36 per cent, among likely voters in the North Carolina governor’s race.
Robinson, who has faced a wave of scandal after CNN uncovered inflammatory comments he made on a porn website, is viewed unfavorably by a majority of the state’s likely voters (27 per cent view him favorably, 53 per cent unfavorably, 20 per cent have no opinion). Stein, the North Carolina attorney general, is lesser known but viewed far more positively (40 per cent favorable, 23 per cent unfavorable, 36 per cent no opinion). The survey was conducted entirely after the CNN report broke.
Robinson faces significant defections from Republican and Republican-leaning likely voters in the state. Overall, 72 per cent of them support him, while 14 per cent say they will vote for Stein and 12 per cent that they would vote for neither of them. Stein, by contrast, has broadly consolidated support among Democratic-aligned likely voters, 95 per cent of whom support him.
In Nebraska’s 2nd District, the poll finds, Harris’ broad lead includes a near-universal 96 per cent among Democratic likely voters, with her numbers buoyed by the 61 per cent support she holds among the district’s independent likely voters, as well as 10 per cent among Republican likely voters. She leads Trump, 60 per cent to 36 per cent, among women, while Trump holds a much slimmer edge, 50 per cent to 45 per cent, among men.
Six in 10 likely voters in the 2nd District say Nebraska should keep its current system for awarding electoral votes, with 40 per cent saying it should switch to a system under which the statewide winner receives all of the electoral votes. An 86 per cent majority of Democratic likely voters and 69 per cent of independent likely voters favor keeping the current system, while 69 per cent of GOP likely voters say they’d rather move to a winner-take-all system in the state.
Harris is running ahead of the Democratic nominee in the race to represent Nebraska’s 2nd District in Congress, with Democrat Tony Vargas holding a narrow advantage over incumbent Republican Rep. Don Bacon, 50per cent to 44 per cent. Vargas, a state senator, lost to Bacon by less than 3 points in the 2022 election in which Republicans won a narrow majority in the US House of Representatives nationwide.
What’s driving the results
Likely voters in North Carolina give Harris a modest edge over Trump as the candidate who’s more likely to unite the country (44 per cent Harris to 35 per cent Trump), make them proud as president (46 per cent Harris to 40 per cent Trump) and care about people like them (46 per cent Harris, 42 per cent Trump). They’re evenly split on whether Harris or Trump more closely shares their view on what the country’s biggest problems are, and closely divided on which candidate would bring needed change (44 per cent Trump, 42 per cent Harris) or has clear policy plans to solve the country’s problems (42 per cent Trump, 39 per cent Harris).
A 52 per cent majority of North Carolina’s likely voters say Trump’s views and policies are too extreme, but a smaller 45 per cent say they’re so extreme they threaten the country. Fewer see Harris’ policies as dangerously extreme (35 per cent).
Trump holds an 8-point advantage over Harris on trust to handle the economy among North Carolina’s likely voters, who also side with him on issues relating to crime and safety (by 7 percentage points) and immigration (by 11 points), but give Harris the edge on protecting democracy (by 4 points) and on handling abortion and reproductive rights (by 11 points). As in other battleground states, the economy is cited as the top issue in the presidential race by a plurality of voters.
In Nebraska’s 2nd District, Trump sees more erosion on the issues on which he’s traditionally posted his strongest numbers: likely voters there are closely split between him and Harris on both the economy and immigration, and give Harris the lead on handling crime and safety (by 6 points), democracy (by 14 points) and abortion and reproductive rights (by 21 points).
Nearly six in 10 likely voters in the district call Trump too extreme (57 per cent), and about half (51 per cent) say he’s extreme enough to pose a threat. Just 36 per cent call Harris’ views and policies dangerously extreme.
And Harris holds wide margins over Trump as the candidate who 2nd District voters think would unite the country, make them proud as president and care about people like them, with smaller edges over him on the remaining attributes tested in the poll.
In both places, the current administration is similarly unpopular – Biden’s approval rating stands at 44 per cent in Nebraska’s 2nd District, and 41 per cent in North Carolina among likely voters. But in the Omaha-area seat, Harris takes 20 per cent support among those who disapprove of Biden, while in North Carolina, that ticks downward to 14 per cent.
The vast majority of likely voters in both North Carolina and Nebraska’s 2nd District say they’re at least somewhat confident that votes in their state will be accurately cast and counted in this year’s presidential election. But just 41 per cent in North Carolina say they’re very confident, rising to a 59 per cent majority in Nebraska’s 2nd District.
The Nebraska seat also sees a far smaller partisan divide in election confidence: while Harris supporters there are 33 points more likely than Trump supporters to express high confidence in their state’s election system, that expands to a 52-point gap between each candidate’s supporters in North Carolina.
Interviews were conducted September 20-25, 2024, online and by telephone with registered voters, including 931 voters in North Carolina and 749 in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. Likely voters include all registered voters in the poll weighted for their predicted likelihood of voting in this year’s election. Results among likely voters in North Carolina have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points; it is 4 points among likely voters in Nebraska’s 2nd District.
CNN’s Jennifer Agiesta and Edward Wu contributed to this report.
