Introduction: Fed’s Daly says its time to consider rate cuts
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
It’s time for the US central bank to consider cutting interest rates, one leading policymaker has said.
Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, has called for a ‘prudent’ approach to setting borrowing costs. She insists the economy was “not in an urgent place”, and pointed to recent signs that inflation is easing.
Daly told the Financial Times that recent economic data have given her “more confidence” that inflation is under control.
She said:
After the first quarter of this year, inflation has just been making gradual progress towards 2 per cent. We are not there yet, but it’s clearly giving me more confidence that we are on our way to price stability.
Stock markets tumbled at the start of this month, amid concerns that the Fed had been too slow to start cutting rates. It left the Fed funds rate on hold at 5.25% to 5.5% at the end of July, with its next meeting scheduled for September.
Last week, US inflation fell to a three-year low of 2.9%, bringing relief to investors – as did a 1% rise in retail sales in July.
Daly’s comments come ahead of a major gathering of central bank chiefs at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, later this week. Investors will be looking for hints as to how quickly the Fed will lower borrowing costs, to achieve a ‘soft landing’ and avoid recession.
We’ll hear from another Fed policymaker, governor Christopher Waller, this afternoon.
The agenda
Key events
In the financial markets, the US dollar has weakened to a seven-month low this morning.
The dollar index (.DXY) has dropped to the lowest level since early January, as traders digest Mary Daly’s comments about how the Fed should consider rate cuts.
Japan’s yen has jumped by 1.7% against the dollar, knocking the Nikkei stock index down by 1.7% today.
Energy price cap could rise again in 2025
The energy price cap, which relates to customers across Great Britain (but not Northern Ireland) is adjusted every three months.
Cornwall Insight have also forecaast it will rise by a “further modest” amount in January 2025, on top of the increase forecast for October-December 2024.
However, they add….
…recent tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war could see prices rise further at the start of the new year.
Cornwall points out that gas and electricity wholesale prices have rebounded in the last few months, since hitting 30-month lows in February.
They say:
The rise in wholesale market prices, particularly since the start of August, has been the key driver behind the forecast uptick in bills.
While prices have stabilised somewhat compared to the previous two years, the market has not fully recovered from the energy crisis and the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As a result, the market remains highly sensitive to any global events that could disrupt supply. The UK’s reliance on imported energy leaves the country very vulnerable to this global volatility. This is seeing both household and business energy bills forecast to staying far above pre-crisis levels.
Energy price cap tipped to rise 9%
Energy customers across Britain have been warned that the cap on bills will rise this autumn, meaning higher bills for millions over the winter.
Consultancy Cornwall Insight has just released its final forecast for the price cap for October – December 2024 – it predicts it will rise 9% to £1,714 per annum for an average households.
That would be an increase of nearly £150 per year on the curent levels of £1,568 per year set for July-September.
Regulator Ofgem will announce the October cap on Friday (23 August).
The cap is a limit to how much energy firms can charge for each unit of energy, so there’s no restriction to the amount a consumer can actually run up.
Typical gas and electricity bills will rise 9% from 1 October, says @CornwallInsight just in time for Winter and a month before the Winter Fuel Payment would be paid to all pensioners until Chancellor cancelled it for 10 million of them. Official price cap announced Friday.
— Paul Lewis (@paullewismoney) August 19, 2024
Goldman Sachs lowers odds of US recession to 20% from 25%
What goes up, must come down.
So, just two weeks after raising the odds of a US recession, Goldman Sachs has now cut them again.
The Wall Street bank has lowered the chances of the United States slipping into a recession in the next 12 months to 20% from 25%. This follows encouragingly low weekly jobless claims data, and the rise in US retail sales in July.
In a note released last weekend, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. economist Jan Hatzius said:
“We have now shaved our probability from 25% to 20%, mainly because the data for July and early August released since August 2 shows no sign of recession.”
GOLDMAN lowers its recession odds. 🇺🇸
“After the July jobs report .. we raised our 12-month US recession probability from 15% to 25%. Now, we have moved it back down to 20% because the data .. including retail sales and jobless claims .. shows no sign of recession.” pic.twitter.com/fQcBcJZ4Ju
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) August 17, 2024
Goldman lifted the odds of a US recession from 15% to 25% at the start of August, after a slowdown in job creation in July.
Introduction: Fed’s Daly says its time to consider rate cuts
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
It’s time for the US central bank to consider cutting interest rates, one leading policymaker has said.
Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, has called for a ‘prudent’ approach to setting borrowing costs. She insists the economy was “not in an urgent place”, and pointed to recent signs that inflation is easing.
Daly told the Financial Times that recent economic data have given her “more confidence” that inflation is under control.
She said:
After the first quarter of this year, inflation has just been making gradual progress towards 2 per cent. We are not there yet, but it’s clearly giving me more confidence that we are on our way to price stability.
Stock markets tumbled at the start of this month, amid concerns that the Fed had been too slow to start cutting rates. It left the Fed funds rate on hold at 5.25% to 5.5% at the end of July, with its next meeting scheduled for September.
Last week, US inflation fell to a three-year low of 2.9%, bringing relief to investors – as did a 1% rise in retail sales in July.
Daly’s comments come ahead of a major gathering of central bank chiefs at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, later this week. Investors will be looking for hints as to how quickly the Fed will lower borrowing costs, to achieve a ‘soft landing’ and avoid recession.
We’ll hear from another Fed policymaker, governor Christopher Waller, this afternoon.
